Poster Preparation Skills

1
Poster Preparation Skills

• Kari E. Boyce, PhD, RDMS
• Associate Dean Associate Professor, Program
  Director, Sonography
• Department of Radiologic Technology College of
  Allied Health,
• University of Oklahoma
• Health Sciences Center

2
Poster Purpose

• Communicate content
• Overview
• Illustrate
• Not a paper

3
Common Errors

• Overpowered
• Underpowered
• Poor Readability
• Cluttered

4
Overpower Content

• Background
• Colors
• Font choice
• Narrow margins
• Poor graphics

5
Underpower Content

• Poor contrast
• Small text
• Crowded layout
• No graphics
• No whitespace

6
Readability

• Poor contrast
• Small text
• Font choices
• Methods for emphasis
• Too much text

7
Clutter

• Organization
• Layout
• Margins
• Titles Bullets
• Too much text

8
Background

• Dont compete with content!
• Readability
• Color Contrast
• Empty Space
• Visual anchors

9
Poor Contrast

• Solid
• Gradient
• Photograph
• Graphic

• Solid
• Gradient
• Photograph
• Graphic

• Solid
• Gradient
• Photograph
• Graphic

• Solid
• Gradient
• Photograph
• Graphic

10
Color Example

• If background is white
• Then use color to
• frame images
• frame graphics
• Start with template
• not from scratch

11
Color

• Blue on Blue

• Contrast
• Yellow vs Black
• Background
• Graphics
• Titles
• Text

• Blue on Blue

• Blue on Blue

• Blue on Blue

12
Color

• Black on Blue

• Black on Blue

• Contrast
• Yellow vs Black
• Background
• Graphics
• Titles
• Text

• Black on Blue

• Black on Blue

13
Colors

• Blue on Orange

• Red on Blue

• Contrast
• Text
• Graphics

• Red on Green

• Orange on Green

• Black on White

• White on Black

• Yellow on Blue

• Blue on Blue

• Ivory on Blue

• Peach on Orange

14
Layout

• Location
• Margins
• White space
• Alignment
• Bullets

15
Bullets

• Order
• Number of lines
• Number of words
• Parallel construction
• Emphasis

16
Bullets

• Order implies emphasis
• Use 5x5 or 7x7 rule
• Keep grammar parallel
• Run spell check
• AVOID all capitals

17
Fonts

• Face and Type
• Serif vs San serif
• Serif vs San serif
• Size
• Point size
• 24, 36, 44, 54, 60

18
Text - Title

• Title readable at
• 15-20 feet
• San-serif best for
• Titles
• Section headers

19
San-serif fonts

• Templates available for these fonts
• ArialLucidia SansTahomaVerdana

20
Font size for titles

• Create 1.5 to 3 letters on final poster
• 70 to 120-point size
• Depends on font

21
Font size - subtitles

• Provide 1 letters on the final poster
• 40 to 75-point size
• Depends on font

22
Sentence case

• Use for titles
• Not Title Case
• Not ALL CAPITALS
• http//www.swarthmore.edu/NatSci/cpurrin1/posterad
  vice.htm

23
Institutional Info

• Department, College and University
• Include in subtitle
• Unless prohibited by poster competition rules

24
Fonts

• Use common cross-platform fonts
• Arial, Geneva, Times, Helvetica, etc.
• Avoid uncommon fonts

25
Readable text

• All text should be readable from a distance of 6
  feet
• Simple serif fonts are good for text

26
Serif fonts

• Templates available for these fonts
• Bookman Old Style (12-point)Century Schoolbook
  (12-pt)Palantino Linotype (12-point)Perpetua
  (14-point)Times New Roman (12-point)

27
Compression or kerning

• Varies from font to font and letter to letter
• Shape of numbers also vary across these five
  fonts

28
Font size for text

• Text
• At least 20-point
• Better 28-point or 36-point
• Width of text columns
• 40-60 characters
• 11-15 words

29
Underlining

• Only for web addresses
• www.ouhsc.edu

30
Italics

• as needed for
• emphasis
• citation titles
• Genus species

31
Bold Tabs

• As needed for
• Emphasis
• Headings
• Titles
• Consistent indents
• Use spaces
• Custom set tabs

32
Left-align text

• Easier to read than fully justified text blocks

Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
Easier to read than fully justified text blocks.
33
Text boxes

• In poster templates
• Format to fit your needs
• Click drag the box to the desired size
• Format box as desired

34
More Text Boxes

• For more text boxes
• Choose "Text Box" under the "Insert" menu
• Or click icon on toolbar
• Format box as desired

35
Layout/Margins

• Use available templates
• Arial / Times New RomanArial / PalatinoLucida
  Sans / PalatinoTahoma / PalatinoVerdana /
  Palatino

36
Title that states (or hints at) the interesting
issue and the study organism, and is formatted
in sentence case (i.e., not in Title Case and
not in ALL CAPS) Your name(s) hereDepartment
of Biology, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore,
Pennsylvania 19081
Introduction This is a Microsoft Powerpoint
template that has column widths and font sizes
optimized for printing a 36 x 56 posterjust
replace the tips and blah, blah, blah repeat
motifs with actual content. Try to keep your
total word count under 1100. More tips can be
found at the companion site, Advice on designing
scientific posters, located at,
ttp//www.swarthmore.edu/NatSci/cpurrin1/posteradv
ice.htm
Results The overall layout for this section can,
and probably should, be modified from this
template, depending on the size and number of
charts and photographs your specific experiment
generated. You might want a single, large column
to accommodate a large map, or perhaps you could
arrange 6 figures in a circle in the center of
the poster do whatever it takes to make your
results graphically clear. To see examples of how
others have abused this template to fit their
presentation needs, perform a Google search for
powerpoint template for scientific posters.
Paragraph format is fine, but sometimes a simple
list of bullet points can communicate results
more effectively 9 out of 12 brainectomized rats
survived. Control rats completed maze faster, on
average, than rats without brains (Fig. 3) (t
9.84, df 21, p 0.032).
Conclusions You can, of course, start your
conclusions in column three if your results
section is data light. Conclusions should not
be mere reminders of your results. What would
one conclude from the results? What is the
broader significance? Why should anyone care?
This section should refer back to the burning
issue mentioned in the introduction. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah.

Fig. 5. Be sure to separate figures from other
figures by generous use of white space. When
figures are too cramped, viewers get confused
about which figures to read first and which
legend goes with which figure. Note that you
should turn text justification off for legends so
that between-word spacing is not awkward.
Control (brain intact)
Brainectomized
Fig. 1. Use a photograph or drawing here to
quickly introduce a viewer to your question,
organism, or allele du jour. Use a non-serif font
for figure legend text to provide subtle cue to
reader that he/she is not reading normal text
section. Color can also be used as a cue.
Avoid keys that force readers to labor through
complicated graphs just label all the lines (or
bars) and then delete the silly key altogether
Figures are preferred but tables are sometimes
unavoidable (ANOVA results, for example, shown
below). A table looks best when it is first
composed within Microsoft Word, then Inserted
as an Object. If you can add small drawings or
icons to your tables, do so!
(a)
(b)
(c)
Materials and methods This paragraph has
justified margins, but be aware that simple
left-justification (other paragraphs) is
infinitely better if your font doesnt space
nicely when fully justified. Sometimes spacing
difficulties can be fixed by manually inserting
hyphens into longer words (Powerpoint doesnt do
this automatically). Your main text is easier to
read if you use a serif font such as Palatino
or Times. Use a non-serif font for title and
section headings (and for figure legends, graph
text, etc.). Be brief, and opt for photographs
or drawings whenever possible to illustrate
organism, protocol, or experimental design.
Literature cited Bender, D.J., E.M Bayne, and
R.M. Brigham. 1996. Lunar condition influences
coyote (Canis latrans) howling. American Midland
Naturalist 136413-417. Brooks, L.D. 1988. The
evolution of recombination rates. Pages 87-105 in
The Evolution of Sex, edited by R.E. Michod and
B.R. Levin. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA. Scott, E.C.
2005. Evolution vs. Creationism an
Introduction. University of California Press,
Berkeley. Society for the Study of Evolution.
2005. Statement on teaching evolution. lt
http//www.evolutionsociety.org/statements.html
gt. Accessed 2005 Aug 9.
Fig. 4(a-c). Make sure legends have enough detail
to fully explain to the viewer what the results
are. Note that for posters it is good to put some
Materials and methods information within the
figure legends or onto the figures themselvesit
allows the Mm section to be shorter, and gives
viewer a sense of experiment(s) even if they have
skipped directly to figures. Dont be tempted to
reduce font size in figure legends, axes labels,
etc.your viewers are probably most interested in
reading your figures and legends!
Remember no period after journal name.
This effect was explored graphically
Often you will have some more text-based results
between your figures. This text should explicitly
guide the reader through the figures. Blah, blah,
blah (Figs. 4a,b). Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah
(Fig. 4c). Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah (data not shown). Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah (God, personal
communication).
Acknowledgments We thank I. Güor for laboratory
assistance, Mary Juana for seeds, Herb Isside for
greenhouse care, and M.I. Menter for statistical
advice and helpful discussions. Funding for this
project was provided by the Swarthmore College
Department of Biology and a Merck summer stipend.
Note that peoples titles are omitted.
Abutting sections can save you a little space,
and subtly indicates to viewers that the contents
are not as important to read.
Fig. 6. You can use connector lines to visually
guide the viewer through your results. These
lines can help viewers read your poster even when
youre not present.
Fig. 2. Photograph or drawing of organism,
chemical structure, or whatever focus of study
is. Dont use graphics from the web (they look
terrible when printed).
This is the gene of interest!
Putting notes to viewers directly onto figures is
preferable to hiding an important point in normal
text of results.
Fig. 3. Illustration of important piece of
equipment, or perhaps a flow chart summarizing
experimental design. Scanned, hand-drawn
illustrations are often preferable to
computer-generated ones.
For further information Please contact
email_at_swarthmore.edu. More information on this
and related projects can be obtained at
www.swarthmore (give the URL for general
laboratory web site). A link to an online,
PDF-version of the poster is nice, too. If you
just must include a pretentious logo, hide it
down here.
Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah,
blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah,
blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah. Blah, blah, blah.
Be sure to get rid of all these blahs before you
print your actual poster.
37
Respect margins

• Provided by template
• Easier to read with generous white space
• Set your goal at
• 20 graphics,
• 40 text, and
• 40 white space 

38
Initial Preparation

• Check instructions
• If using 2 times
• Use smallest max permitted size
• Size impacts layout resolution

39
Initial Preparation

• Gather organize
• Data, text and pictures
• Place in one folder
• Place on USB drive
• Convenient access during poster creation

40
Initial Preparation

• Scanners in Bird Library for digitizing
• Slides
• Photos
• Radiographs

41
Using the Template

• Select template
• Colleges website
• Campus website
• Download poster template file to your computer

42
Using the Template

• More templates are available online
• Dont start from scratch!
• http//www.ah.ouhsc.edu/main/oass_poster.asp

43
Poster Dimensions
44
Poster Dimensions

• "File "Page Setup
• To adjust poster dimensions
• Change slides are sized for option to Custom

45
Poster Dimensions

• Printer limitations
• 36 inch printer
• Maximum height
• 35.5 inches

46
Poster Dimensions

• Software limitations
• PowerPoint
• Maximum width
• 56 inches

47
Poster Dimensions

• To make poster wider
• Reduce height width settings to ½ of desired
  size
• Request final poster to be printed at 200

48
Saving the file

• "File "Save"
• Save file with meaningful name
• PowerPoint file with the extension .ppt

49
Saving the file

• Save to
• hard drive
• USB drive
• a Zip disk
• CD-R/CD-RW disk

50
Saving the file

• Save file every few minutes!
• Save shortcuts
• ? S keys (Mac)
• Control S keys on a PC

51
Scanning Images

• Measure actual image size
• Estimate size of final image on the poster

52
Scanning Images

• If picture is larger than final image
• Scan at 300 dpi resolution with 100 scaling

53
Scanning Images

• If picture is smaller than final image
• Scan at 600 dpi resolution with
• 150 scaling

54
Scanning Images

• Line drawings
• Make sure lines are thick multi-pixels
• Create at 300 dpi
• Vector graphics format
• EPS or other

55
Scanning Images

• After scanning
• Ideal file size
• 100-300 Kb
• Cross-platform formats
• JPG, PNG, GIF BMP

56
Scanning Images

• Check file size
• Find file in My Computer /Windows Explorer
• Right-click on file name
• Select Properties

57
Scanning Images

• Check file size (Mac)
• Click file name once
• Press ? and I key
• or Get Info

58
Scanning Images

• Website images
• Usually around 72 dpi
• Optimized for fast viewing at computer screen
• Poster/print output needs higher resolution
• At least 150 dpi

59
Images

• "Insert "Picture"
• Select "From File
• Choose file name in dialog box "Insert".

60
Images

• Adjust image size
• Use "size handles" at the corners sides of
  picture
• Click, drag, release

61
Images

• To keep aspect ratio (same relative proportion)
• Hold down Alt key or Option key while dragging
  the handles
• Select lock aspect ratio checkbox

62
Images

• To move picture
• Hold mouse button down when pointer becomes a
  four-way arrow
• Drag the picture

63
Images

• To move an object alittle
• Hold down Alt key or Option key
• Then use arrow keys to move the picture

64
Data Backup

• Final draft file
• Make a backup copy
• on a different disk!
• Protect from damage

65
File Formats

• .ppt PowerPoint
• .pdf Adobe portable
• document format

66
Final Approval

• Get poster critiqued
• and approved by your research mentor
• Make necessary changes
• Save backup file

67
Final Approval

• Get mentors sign-off
• Posters are onlyprinted once!
• Make sure all corrections are made before printing

68
PC-to-Mac Conversion

• PC creation to be printed using a MAC
• Review poster on a Mac to make sure text, images
  other objects are intact aligned

69
PC-to-Mac Conversion

• Image formats
• Common
• Cross-platform
• JPG, PNG, GIF BMP
• Not PIC graphics

70
An Evaluation Plan of Family Caregiver Programs
in The Aging
Ya-Mei Chen, Department of Public Health, Policy
and Health Research Track
Introduction Family Caregiver Support Program
(FCSP) The FCSP at the Aging and Disability
Services (ADS) is a program integrated three
programs and funding sources to provide services
to older people and adults with disabilities.
The three funding sources are 1) State Respite
Care Program, 2) State Family Caregiver Program,
and 3) National Family Caregiver Support Program.
These three programs were funded at different
time the State Respite Care was started in 1979
the State Caregiver Program was started in 2000,
and the National Caregiver Program was started in
2001. The purpose of FCSP to 1) provide a relief
for families or other unpaid caregivers of adults
with functional disability 2) provides
caregiving support to unpaid caregivers (of any
age) caring for a person with functional
disabilities age 18 or older, and 3) provide
caregiving support for unpaid caregivers who care
persons age 60 or older, to support caregiving
for relatives and other providing care to
children under age 18 (Kinship Care), or to
support any adult caring for a developmentally
disabled (DD) child or a DD person age 60 or
older.   These three programs have been
integrated since year 2001, but there was no
evaluation plan to assess the effectiveness and
efficiencies of the FCSP. Therefore, the Aging
and Disability Services (ADS), which is the
assigned Area Agency on Aging (AAA) for the
Seattle-King County region, is strongly
interested in carefully evaluating the Family
Caregiver Program they have funded to long-term
care service agencies in King County Area and
then to effectively allocate the resources in the
future. Thus, they will be able to better use
the public fund and better service in their next
year Area Plan.
Outcome Evaluation Plan Study Population All
Family caregivers who have received services from
four agencies funded by Family Caregiver Support
Programs Setting Four agencies, which were
funded by Family Caregiver Support programs of
ADS, agreed to facilitate the survey. They were
Senior Services, Evergreen Healthcare-Geriatric
Regional Assessment Team, Northshore Senior
Center, and Kin On Community Caregiver Net
Work-Caregiver Support Procedures After
receiving the files of cover letter and
questionnaire, the four agencies tailored the
cover letter and questionnaire to their agency
titles, so the clients would know why they were
receiving the survey. Then the cover letter and
questionnaire were then sent out to the four
agencies clients along with a postage-paid
return envelopes addressed to ADS to all of their
clients in the first week of August, 2003. The
clients were encouraged to return the
questionnaire to ADS within two weeks. To
protect the clients confidentiality, the
questionnaires were anonymous, and, therefore, no
follow-up was made. UW human subject division
has approved this study.
Purpose of the Project The purpose of this
project was to develop an evaluation tool as well
as a plan to evaluate a Family Caregiver Support
Program supported and funded by the ADS.

• Method
• Literature review on family caregiving
  evaluation, including 1)caregiver stress 2)
  satisfaction, 3)anxiety, 4) depression severity,
  5) health, 6) status, 7) physical and Mental
  strain, 8) caregiver Health Status, 9)caregiver
  well-being, 10) caregiver perceived support, 11)
  time to rest or attend other responsibility, 12)
  social network, 13) presence of extended family,
  14) caregiver social resources, 15) psychological
  resources, 16) family caregiving well, 17)
  caregiving mastery, 18) self-efficacy, 19)
  caregiver competence, 20) caregiver preparedness,
  21) self-Perceptions of doing caregiving well22)
  delay institutionalization, and 23) caregiver
  burden
• Literature revew on outcome measures of
  caregiving, including 1) The burden Interview, 2)
  Behavior and Mood Disturbance Scale, Relatives
  Distress Scale, 3) Caregiver Strain Index, 4)
  Poulshock and Deimlings Model, 5) Montgomery,
  Gonyea, and Hooymans Inventories, 6) Caregiver
  Appraisal Measure, 7) Caregiver Hassles Scale, 8)
  Caregiver Burden Inventory, 9) Screen for
  Caregiver Burden (Vitaliano, Russo et al. 1991),
  10) Rabins, Mace, and Lucas Structured Interview
• Meet with FCP program members and decide which
  aspect is the most important to evaluate first.
• Meet with four local long-term care agencies and
  decide which outcome measures might be the most
  appropriate to measure.
• Discuss with local agencies of the method to
  disseminate the survey questionnaire

• Example of Questionnaire Developed
• DemographicWhat types of services did you
  receive?
• Caregiver Appraisal Scale
• Your health has suffered because of the care you
  must give CR?
• 14. I can fit in most of the things I need to do
  in spite of the time taken by caring for CR
• 29. Helping CR has made you feel closer to
  him/her?

71
Excess Weight and Osteoarthritis
A patient educational activity for Arthritis
Foundation Lucille Shore-Schein, M.D., University
of Washington and Johanna Lindsay Programs
Services Manager, Arthritis Foundation
Washington/Alaska Chapter

• Objectives
• To design a patient-educational activity for
  Arthritis Foundation Washington/Alaska Chapter
  web-site and power point presentation on link
  between the excess weight and osteoarthritis
• To promote weight loss through life style
  modifications and prevent/slow down the
  progression of Osteoarthritis

• Overweight and Obesity
• USA obesity rates reach epidemic proportions
• 58 million people are overweight
• 40 million people are obese
• 3 million people are morbidly obese
• In the past two decades the number of overweight
  children, adolescents and adults has doubled
• In health warning about weight, issued by the US
  Surgeon General, obesity may soon overtake
  smoking as the leading cause of preventable
  deaths in the US - 300,000 Americans die
  prematurely every year of disease caused by or
  related to obesity or being very overweight (vs.
  400,000 tobacco-related)

• Results
• Developed web-based educational material and
  PowerPoint presentation on the subject
• Topics covered
• Overview of Osteoarthritis
• Overview of Overweight/Obesity
• What is the link between excess weight and
  degenerative arthritis?
• Prevention/slowing down OA progression with
  weight loss through diet modification and regular
  exercise
• Can weight loss decrease the development and
  progression of osteoarthritis?
• How can one prevent or slow down the progression
  of Osteoarthritis by loosing weight?
• diet modification
• regular exercise

• Background
• Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint
  disease
• 21 million people in the United States are
  affected
• overweight and obesity are important modifiable
  risk factors for OA
• normal knee joint (picture on the left)
• joint with osteoarthritis (picture on the right)

• Methods
• Informal discussions with members of Arthritis
  Foundation/Alaska Chapter, local Rheumatologists
  and Rheumatology clinic patients at UW on useful
  patient-education topic and presentation
• Literature search on the subjects of
• OA
• Obesity/overweight
• Obesity/overweight as a risk factor for OA
• Prevention/slowing down OA progression with
  weight loss through diet modification and regular
  exercise
• Synthesis and organization of the information to
  create a web-site and power point presentation

• Conclusion
• Developed materials were submitted to Arthritis
  Foundation Washington/Alaska Chapter
• It will be used as a building block in an
  educational campaign launched in order to
  increase general publics awareness of
  Osteoarthritis and its risk factors

72
New Earthquake Catalogs For Southern California
And Their Use In Earthquake Forecasting Yan Y.
Kagan, David D. Jackson and Yufang Rong,
University of California, Los Angeles

• Summary
• We create two historic/instrumental, 1800-present
  earthquake catalogs for southern California by
  combining information from several available
  catalogs. our catalogs differ from other
  compilations
• The focal mechanism is supplied for all
  earthquakes by either finding the solution for
  each of Mgt4.7 earthquake or assigning the
  mechanism by comparison with other known
  solutions.
• Estimates of uncertainty for all earthquake
  parameters are obtained and listed in the
  catalog.
• We use the most accurate and reliable information
  from about 15 different catalogs.
• Aftershock probabilities are calculated.
• 5) We represent Mgt6.5 earthquakes as consisting
  of several dislocation sources. We analyze
  several earthquake catalogs compiled in
  California since the 1970s in order to determine
  the accuracy of their magnitude determination and
  earthquake focal mechanisms. The Caltech, Harvard
  CMT, and USGS moment tensor catalogs, two
  catalogs (northern and southern Californian) of
  focal mechanisms solutions, based on the HYPO71
  program, as well as two catalogs of regional
  moment tensor inversion (from UC Berkeley and
  Caltech) are compared. We investigate the
  differences in magnitude estimates in these
  catalogs and focal mechanism orientation
  uncertainty for earthquakes with magnitude 4.7
  and higher. Only several tens of earthquakes can
  usually be correlated in different catalogs, thus
  the measurement reliability is relatively low. We
  evaluate the magnitude accuracy (standard
  deviation) as about 0.2 for conventional catalogs
  and 0.08 for moment tensor solutions. The average
  focal mechanism uncertainty is more than 25
  degrees for first motion mechanisms solutions
  (HYPO71) and about 13 degrees for moment tensor
  solutions.
• Two RELM catalogs and a more extensive
  explanations are presented in our Web site
  http//scec.ess.ucla.edu/ykagan/relm_index.html
  (point source and extended source). In the latter
  dataset, we use fault geology data and recent
  detailed investigations of large events to
  represent earthquakes with magnitude Mgt6.5 as
  consisting of several rectangular dislocation
  patches. We use the RELM catalogs to estimate the
  long-term seismicity forecast for southern
  California. We calculate probabilities for
  earthquakes over m5 per unit area and time on a 5
  km grid. For larger earthquakes the probabilities
  are lower according to the magnitude
  distribution, which we assume to be a tapered
  Gutenberg-Richter distribution with uniform
  b-value of 0.95 and uniform corner magnitude of
  8.5.
• We have used our model (Jackson and Kagan, SRL,
  1999 Kagan and Jackson, GJI, 2000) in a
  "pseudo-prospective" forecast based on the RELM
  earthquake catalog in southern California. We
  also construct random synthetic earthquake
  catalogs, including focal mechanisms. Since the
  likelihood score, a measure of compatibility of
  data and theory, was about the same for the real
  catalog as it was for the simulated ones, the
  forecast was quite consistent with observed
  earthquakes. We constructed an Earthquake
  Potential Model based on maximum horizontal shear
  strain rate, evaluated in 1993, based on the SCEC
  Crustal Motion Model 2.0. Simulated earthquake
  catalogs looked very much like the observed one.

Southern California Earthquake Catalog With
Extended Sources
Earthquake catalogs analyzing In an effort to
create a combined earthquake catalog for southern
California, we analyze several earthquake
catalogs compiled in California since the 1970s
to determine the accuracy of their magnitude
determination and earthquake focal mechanisms.
Diagrams show how we determined magnitude and
focal mechanism accuracy by comparing data from
different catalogs. The tables summarize the
results, that are used to assign the "pecking
order" shown in the RELM Table (left).
File contains the following fields in this order
Year, month, day, hour, minute, latitude,
longitude, location code, location uncertainty
(km), location uncertainty code, depth, moment
magnitude, magnitude code, uncertainty of
magnitude, magnitude uncertainty code, strike1,
dip1, rake1, strike2, dip2, rake2, fault plane
probability, focal mechanism code, main-shock
probability, geographic code, and comment code.
All data are numerical. Year, month, hour, and
minute are integers Latitude and longitude are
given in decimal degrees, with 3 decimal places
Location code refers to the catalog used to
determine location see catalog list below.
Location uncertainty code 1 from table below, 2
for formula derived from inter-comparisons, and 3
for individual estimate specific to given quake.
Depth is in km. Generic depth of 9.9 is used
for all events before 1933. Magnitude code
refers to catalog from which magnitude was
determined. See catalog list below. Magnitude
uncertainty code same as the location
uncertainty code above. Strike 1, Dip1, and
Rake1 apply to nodal plane presumably
corresponding to the fault plane. Strike 2,
Dip2, and Rake2 apply to the presumed auxiliary
plane. Fault plane probability corresponds to
the probability that plane 1 is actually the
fault plane (rather than auxiliary plane) it
should be over 50, or planes 1 and 2 should be
reversed. Focal mechanism code refers to
catalog from which focal mechanism taken. Code 0
means that focal mechanism was estimated using a
weighted average of those from nearby earthquakes
with known focal mechanisms. Main-shock
probability 1 for main shock, 0 for aftershock.
Geographic code 1 for inside the small box
(defined below), 0 for events with any indication
of rupture inside the large box. Comment code
0 means no comment 1 means look in comment
section under earthquake number and date.
As the initial dataset we use Ellsworth (1990)
historical/instrumentalearthquake catalog. We
modified it by adding 1) the recent earthquakes
from the Harvard catalog, 2) the focal mechanism
solutions and spatially distributed seismic
moment from other available publications, and 3)
finally, for earthquakes in the 19th century, we
used the fault trace information and slip
distribution for the largest earthquakes to infer
their distributed moment tensor.In the depth
column 9.99 means no depth information is
available, in the width column 5.0 again means
that the rupture width is unknown (the value in
this column is half-width -- 5 km up and 5 km
down). The first code column in the catalog
means 0 - point source, 1 - distributed source.
We tried to represent any earthquake with M gt
6.5 as a distributed source. The second code
column means 0 - guessed mechanism solution (320
90  180) gt0 - known mechanism solution 1 --
fault direction, strike-slip mechanism 2 --
waveform inversion 3 -- waveform inversion and
geodetic studies                          
Figure 4. Dependence of the rotation angle
between two focal mechanism solutions (Harvard
and NCEDC-MT on latitude. Results of linear and
quadratic regression fit are illustrated by
dashed and solid line, respectively. The number
of matched earthquake pairs is 69.
Figure 3. Dependence of the magnitude difference
M between two catalogs CIT and UCB-MT on time.
Results of linear and quadratic regression fit
are illustrated by dashed and solid line,
respectively. The number of matched earthquake
pairs is 33.
PROCEDURE 1. We select earthquakes from each of
15 catalogs (TABLES 2 and 3) satisfying our
criteria. 2. We match earthquakes in these
catalogs. Result is "Combined unedited S.
California catalog" (Catalog I, see this WEB
site). 3. Error analysis of matching
earthquakes magnitude, location and focal
mechanism errors are investigated and
hierarchical selection criteria (see TABLE 3) are
established. 4. Combined point catalog (Catalog
II) created, many earthquakes in it do not have
focal mechanism solutions. 5. Combined point
catalog (Catalog III) -- guess a focal mechanism
from known solutions. 6. Combined point catalog
(Catalog IV) -- a fault plane selected from using
large earthquakes with extended sources, and its
probability evaluated. This provisional final
point catalog is also on the WEB "Combined
provisional S. California catalog -- point
sources". This catalog and both boxes are shown
in the "Combined provisional S. California
catalog -- point sources, PostScript image"
diagram (see the WEB). Black beachballs -- known
solutions Orange beachballs -- guessed
solutions.
Earthquake focal mechanisms, mgt4.7 S. California
1800-2002

Long-term seismicity forecast for southern
California We applied the technique developed by
us to estimate the long-term seismicity forecast
for southern California, using the earthquake
catalogs shown here. We also used horizontal
shear strain rate, based on the SCEC Crustal
Motion Model 2.0 (Shen et al., 1996) to evaluate
the long-term earthquake rate. We compare these
forecasts with earthquake record 1993-2001
("pseudo-prospective" test).
REFERENCES Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1994.
Long-term probabilistic forecasting of
earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 99,
13,685-13,700. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan,
1999. Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999,
Seism. Res. Lett., 70, 393-403. Rong, Y.-F., D.
D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan, 1999. Tests of
Circum-Pacific seismic gap models, Eos Trans.
AGU, 80(46), Fall AGU Meet. Suppl., p.
F687. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 2000.
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes,
Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453. Kagan, Y. Y.,
2002. Seismic moment distribution revisited II.
Moment conservation principle, Geophys. J. Int.,
149, 731-754. Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., and
Jackson, D. D., 2002. Plate tectonics and
earthquake potential of spreading ridges and
oceanic transform faults, in Plate Boundary
Zones, AGU Monograph, eds. S. Stein and J. T.
Freymueller, in press. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. Modern
California earthquake catalogs, their comparison,
Seism. Res. Lett., in press, http//scec.ess.ucla.
edu/ykagan/calcat_index.html. Kagan, Y. Y., Y.
F. Rong, and D. D. Jackson, 2002. Earthquake
clustering and forecasts (Chapter 5 of the ARBUS
book), in press, http//scec.ess.ucla.edu/ykagan/
arbus_index.html. Rong Y. and D. D. Jackson,
2002. Evaluation earthquake potentials in and
around China A smoothed seismicity approach,
Geol. Res. Lett., in press.
Figure 1. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes from
the 1800-2002 catalog in Southern California
area. Lower hemisphere diagrams of focal spheres
are shown. Known mgt 4.7 earthquakes are shown.
Symbol size is proportional to earthquake
magnitude. The striped regions correspond to
compression quadrants. Black symbols correspond
to known solutions, orange symbols are guessed
mechanisms. The polygon shows area where catalog
is considered more accurate and reliable.
Figure 2. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes from
the 1800-2000 catalog in southern California area
and major surface faults. Lower hemisphere
diagrams of focal spheres are shown. Symbol size
is proportional to earthquake magnitude. The
striped regions correspond to compression
quadrants. More densely striped beach-balls'
correspond to point sources extended sources are
shown by a series of less striped symbols.
Stripes are concentrated toward the earthquake
fault plane projection to indicate the presumed
fault plane.
Figure 5. Long-term seismicity forecast for
southern California Latitude limits 32.0-37.0N,
longitude limits 114.0-122.0W. Earthquakes after
1992/12/31 are shown in white. The size of
circles is proportional to earthquake magnitude.
Color scale tones show the long-term probability
of earthquake occurrence calculated with the
historical and Harvard 1977-1992 catalog.
Figure 6. Long-term seismicity forecast for
southern California Latitude limits 32.0-37.0N,
longitude limits 114.0-22.0W. Earthquakes after
1992/12/31 are shown in white. The size of
circles is proportional to earthquake magnitude.
Color scale tones show the long-term probability
of earthquake occurrence calculated using strain
map.
73

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