POS 304404: Great Power Politics 02012006

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POS 304/404 Great Power Politics02/01/2006

• Course Status
• First weekly written assignment due.
• Presentation date selection pushed back to
  02/15/05.
• Paper topic description 02/22/05.
• Presentation and paper can be on same topic.
• Course Agenda
• Website.
• Discussion question.
• Definitions of Great Powers/Empires.
• Readings.
• Mearsheimer Preface Introduction.
• Howe Introduction.
• Haas Introduction Chapter 1.
• Johnson Prologue.
• Videos SOTU and Anti-Imperial origins of US.

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• Mearsheimer.
• Authors Website.
• Critique of Perpetual Peace.
• Concept introduced/popularized by Kant.
• 1795 Perpetual Peace A Philosophical Sketch.
• Belief that international conflict can be
  regulated.
• Updated version of Perpetual Peace
  Democratic Peace.
• Critique of End of History.
• Concept most recently popularized by Francis
  Fukuyama.
• How could history end?
• Assumption that global system would emerge that
  is homogeneous.
• Global ideological consensus would appear.
• Post-Cold War euphoria - stillborn?

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• Mearsheimer.
• the claim that security competition and war
  between great powers has been purged from
  international system is wrong.
• International Politics... a dangerous and
  ruthless business.
• Assumptions of Mearsheimer.
• States engaged in an unrelenting pursuit of
  power.
• Why?
• International System.
• Anarchic.
• States have offensive military capability.
• States face uncertainty.
• Uncertainty Fear.
• Examples - Intelligence Failures.

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• Offensive Realism.
• Focus on Great Powers.
• Relative Military Capability.
• Nuclear Age - Must have nuclear deterrent.
• What are the necessary elements that
  nation-states must have to meet the above two
  criteria for great power status.
• Theory has claims of generalizability.
• Time domain of Mearsheimers study 1792 to end of
  20th century.
• Predictive - Forecasting.
• Is prediction of nation-state behavior possible?
• What are the purposes of prediction?
• If prediction is possible - who benefits?

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• Why are theories of international politics and
  competition necessary?
• Mearsheimer admitsoffensive realism has limits.
• Questions about power.
• Why do states want power?
• How much power?
• What is power?
• What Strategies do states use to acquire and
  maintain power?
• Blackmail, war, balancing, buck-passing.
• Liberalism vs.. Realism.
• Other non-realist theories.

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• Liberalism.
• Enlightenment Roots.
• Core beliefs.
• States main actors.
• Internal differences shape state behavior.
• Good and bad states - vary by regime type.
• States do not just seek power, especially good
  states.
• Types.
• Economic Interdependence.
• Democratic Peace.
• International Institutions.
• Realism.

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• Realism.

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• Realism (continued).
• Americans dislike? Why?
• American rhetoric liberal, but is foreign and
  national security policy based on realism?
• Does contradiction between rhetoric and actions
  have adverse impact internally and/or externally
  for the United States?

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• Polarity of the International System.
• Multipolar.
• Bipolar.
• Unipolar.
• Mearsheimers Assumptions re polarity.
• Multipolar more war prone than bipolar.
• Especially if competition between powerful
  potential hegemons.

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• Ikenberry, John. 2002. Introduction in America
  Unrivaled The Future of the Balance of Power,
  John Ikenberry ed.. Ithaca, NY Cornell
  University Press.
• American power unprecedented.
• Hyperpower?
• Multidimensionality of power.
• Military.
• Economic.
• Cultural.
• American Unipolarity Poses Questions for IR
  theory.
• Realist Theory of Balance of Power.
• Balancing to Concentration or Asymmetry of Power.
• No significant balancing of American power.
• Opposition to intervention in Iraq - evidence of
  balancing?
• Why no balancing to American unipolarity?
• Economic interdependence.

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• Ikenberry.
• Balancing dog that has not yet barked.
• Possible reasons for lack of balancing.
• American power less threatening?
• American power and actions more benefits than
  costs to other states?
• American power, and global system, fundamentally
  different and stable?
• Policy Implications.
• Anticipation of near and long term future global
  distribution of power.
• Institutional Response.
• Military, diplomatic, economic, cultural -
  internal and external.

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• Ikenberry.
• Debate about American unipolarity - debate about
  sources of international order.
• Debate w/deep historical roots.
• Control of conflict and maintenance of order.
• Realist/neorealist theories.
• Balance of Power.
• Hegemony.
• Balance of power.
• Capabilities for balancing internal and external.
• Alliances of expedience - not durable.
• Weak states seek protection from dominant state.
• Balancing strategy vs. bandwagoning.

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• Ikenberry.
• Hegemony.
• International system characterized by a series of
  hegemonies.
• War establishes new hegemony.
• Different types of hegemony.
• Intensity of use of coercion.
• Hegemonic order preserved by
• Coercion w/no challenging state or alliance of
  states.
• Informal imperial order.
• Minimal convergence of interests.
• Solving regional security dilemmas.
• Liberal hegemony.
• Institutions and mutual benefit dampen balancing
  impulse.

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• Hegemony and Empire.
• Great power defining international relations of
  era.
• Lieven Empire The Russian Empire and its Rivals
  (2000).
• Polity ruling over large territory w/ ethnically
  diverse population.
• Democracy and Empire.
• Empires necessarily always authoritarian.
• Does internal form of government matter for
  definition of empire?
• Is empire distinct from nation-state or
  multi-ethnic/national federations?
• Core governing apparatus.
• Nation-State.
• Networks of elites (aristocratic/warrior/ethnic/re
  ligious).

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• Imperialism and Empire.
• Empire.
• Political control imposed by some political
  societies over effective sovereignty of other
  political societies.
• Imperialism.
• Process of establishing and maintaining an
  empire.
• Imperial Metropole.
• Peripheries.
• Vulnerable.
• What types of vulnerabilities?

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• Howe.
• All history is imperial - or colonial .
• Opens with a series of examples.
• US pending war with/intervention in Iraq.
• Israeli/Palestinian Conflict.
• Turkish/Kurd Conflict.
• Trial of Milosevic/international law as product
  of succession of empires.
• Scottish Parliament.
• Echoes of Empire.
• Lord of the Rings, Empire Strikes Back, Evil
  Empire from Reagan to Rage Against the Machine.

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• Howes Three Goals
• Interpretation of the idea of empire.
• Disentangle the various meanings of empire.
• Empire, imperialism, colonialism, colonization,
  neocolonialism.
• Afterlives of empire.
• Howe, like Doyle and others points out empire
  ideologically loaded term.
• Etymology of empire.
• Latin imperium - sovereignty or rule.
• Dual aspect wage war, make rules.

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• Imperium.
• Extensive size.
• Universality.
• Boundary between barbarian and civilization.
• Empires.
• Large.
• Diverse.
• Direct and Indirect rule.
• Violence and the acquisition and maintenance of
  empire.

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• Empire and Imperialism.
• Imperialism referred to Napoleon III attempt to
  re-establish Napoleons empire.
• British use.
• Attitude vs. Fact of empire.
• Critics of Empire.
• Hobson.
• Lenin.
• Schumpeter.
• Hardt and Negri.

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• State power and empire.
• Definitions.
• Empire.
• Imperialism.
• Globalization.
• Colonialism/internal colonialism.
• Colonization/settler colonization.
• Post-colonial/neo-colonial.

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• Types of Empire.
• Land.
• Sea.
• Land Empire.
• Older form of empire.
• Diffuse.
• Duration.
• Soviet, Chinese (PRC).
• Empires.
• Assyrian.
• Greek.

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• Egyptian.
• Unclear if empire ala Assyrians and Greeks.
• Americas.
• Incan, Mayan, Aztec empires.
• China.
• Rome.
• Invented modern idea of empire.
• Foundation exploitation.
• Tribute, taxation, slavery.
• Civilizing mission.

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• Islamic Caliphate.
• Al Qaeda inspired by past empire.
• Continental Europe and England.
• Intra-European empire/nation building.
• Modern land empires.
• Ottoman.
• Russian.
• Austro-Hungarian.
• Chinese.
• American.

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• Aspiring/defeated empires.
• Nazi.
• Lebensraum.
• Japanese.
• Co-prosperity sphere.
• Land empires and land power.

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• Haas, Mark L.
• Duquesne University.
• Ideology.
• Ideology and perception of threat.
• Ideological distance.
• Greater ideological distance Greater perception
  of threat posed by a state.
• Ideology and fear of subversion.
• Demonstration Effects Mechanism.
• Espionage, Subversion activities of competitor
  states/networks.
• Ideology as a transnational phenomenon.
• Social Identity Theory and ideology.
• Misperception and Ideological Distance.
• Figure 1 Haas, p. 15.
• Figure 2 Haas, p. 18.

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• Arguments contributions
• Ideology effects perceptions.
• Exploration of causal mechanisms.
• Ideology foundation of security dynamics.
• Distance not content of ideology.
• Integrating ideology and power.
• Ideational IR approaches.
• Democratic peace.
• Constructivist - Wendt.
• Post-revolutionary states Walt.
• Clash of Civilizations - Huntington.
• Realism, Neo-Realsim.
• Haass goal integrate ideology and realist
  power consideration.

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• Dependent Variable.
• Perception of threat.
• Independent Variable.
• Ideological similarity.
• Contextual Variables.
• Ideologies in system, expectations of closeness,
  ascendant ideologies.
• Methodology and case selection 1790s, 1815-1848,
  1930s, Sino-Soviet 1949-1960, Cold War 1980s.
• Hypothesis 1
• Greater distance, greater perception of threat.
• Greater similarities, reduction in perception of
  threat.
• Distance effects
• Estimates of probability of subversion and
  international conflict.
• Interferes with communication/assessment of
  capabilities and intentions of other states.

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• Johnson, Chalmers.
• American Empire.
• Book is a guide to the American empire as it
  begins openly to spread its wings (p. 4).
• Empire way of life and network of political and
  economic interests.
• Okinawa experience.
• Author of Blowback.
• National Security/Intelligence apparatus growing
  power and secrecy.
• Dangers militarism, secrecy pose to the republic.

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• Critical Current Events
• State of the Union and 21st Century Great
  Power/Imperial Politics.
• White House website.
• CNN Coverage.
• Protest.
• CNN - Sheehan Arrested in House Gallery before
  SOTU.
• World Cant Wait series of protests throughout
  US.
• Chicago Chicago IndyMedia.
• SOTU Clip
• Internal Consequences Justification for NSA
  wiretapping?
• Global engagement/global empire?
• Economic achievements/global economic
  competition?

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• Consequences of Empire/Great Power Status US
  Apparatus domestic activity.
• National Security Agency.
• Chief US foreign signals intelligence agency.
• Larger than CIA - existence denied until mid
  1970s.
• No Such Agency.
• Controversy
• Violation of law based on surveillance of US
  persons w/n United States.
• EPIC Spotlight on Surveillance NSA - likely
  discussed in State of the Union address.

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• Anti-Imperialism and origins of the American
  Republic.
• British Empire.
• Colonial resistance to empire.
• Decomposition of empire and the rise of new
  great powers or empires.
• Political strife and the radicalizing of the
  colonists
• Video Clip 1 Rebels and Redcoats. BBC/PBS -
  2000.
• Boston Massacre to Boston Tea Party.
• Questions
• What does clip say about revolutionary origins
  of American republic?
• What does clip demonstrate about generalizable
  dynamics leading to the fragmentation of empires,
  and the rise of new powers?
• Any concepts introduced by readings relevant for
  understanding dynamics case.

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• Discussion Question 02/08/06
• Anarchy versus History.
• Compare Mearsheimers and Howes approaches to
  understanding imperial/great power politics.
  Discuss similarities and differences in approach.