OOPC ISSUES REPORT to CLIVAR SSG16

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OOPC ISSUES REPORT to CLIVAR SSG-16

• D.E.Harrison
• Chair, Ocean Observations Panel for Climate
• NOAA/PMEL
• Madrid, May 2009

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Assumptions

• That CLIVAR and OOPC will continue to work as
  closely as we have, with Ocean Panel participants
  part of OOPC meetings.
• That climate science will continue to drive the
  evolution of the sustained in-situ ocean
  observing system and that climate researchers
  will continue to have major influence on the
  in-situ OS plan.
• That data sharing in near-real time will remain a
  core feature of participation in the OS.
• That OceanObs09 will identify the feasible,
  community-driven aspirations for sustained ocean
  observing over the coming decade.

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Overview

• Global Ocean in-situ O.S., described in GCOS
  Implementation Plan, remains mostly in physical
  climate (and carbon) research world hands,
  motivated by research goals and national
  priorities.
• Implementation progress in situ has slowed a lot.
  Sat. not bad.
• Not clear how long system can be sustained via
  science community. But not seeking transition to
  operations yet too much RD still needed too
  few institutions in place too little national
  high level demand for information/services. Way
  Forward?
• RD, data sharing and data system challenges.
  esp. for metadata and system evolution and for
  biogeochemical, ecosystem and living marine
  resource variables
• Good recent progress with ocean analysis and
  reanalysis. But much work needed.
• Ocean climate information development proceeding
  slowly.
• Ocean obs essential in coupled model forecasting
  but can demonstration of impact be made more
  evident to sponsors?
• Climate research priority funding likely will
  determine evolution of the in-situ system over
  the coming decade.

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An Overarching Challenge

• Apart from sea level rise, variability and
  changes in the ocean affect societies indirectly.
  Yet these affects can be profound.
• But the ocean is seldom seen as the essential
  element, even when it is critical.
• The global ocean is no ones back yard, though
  ExclusiveEconomicZones span 30
• Sustained observing of the global ocean
  challenges most national priority frameworks.
• Need for sustained and outcomes-oriented advocacy
  is critical for sustaining, and more so for
  enhancement.

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Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate
Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and
JCOMM targets
Total in situ networks
February 2009
61
87
100
62
81
100
43
79
48
24
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March 2009 surface buoys on
GTS Still need to improve coverage will
lose some SLP in 09
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Argo Float Age. 4yr is
target survival Array is aging. Coverage not
there
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Very Good Progress in Ocean Sat. Mission
Commitments

From GCOS Progress Report to SBSTA (draft,
April 2009)
recent progress on JASON-3 means should be
green
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Knowing Climate Things

• Most recent Total Solar Irradiance 1361W/m2 not
  1366?
• Has attaining surface drifting buoy global
  coverage reduced global average SST 0.1C?
• Late Summer 08 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Anomaly
  uncertainty 1x10E6 km2 out of 2-3?
• Upper Ocean Heat Content actually flat recently?
• How to talk about Winter 08-09 ENSO behavior?
• Have N.Atlantic, TNA and PDO SST shifted to
  negative or are they just fluctuating?

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Ocean NRT Analysis

• Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment has
  ended.
• Two groups proposed- GODAE/OceanView and JCOMM
  ET-Operational Ocean Forecast Systems.
• Data QC a challenge Data set versioning needed
  Evaluation metrics
• Climate and ocean research community engagement
  with products could be very helpful

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Repeat Hydro/Carbon

• New plan for Carbon inventory change survey
  needed. GOSHIP to plan?
• May need major enhancement to get useful accuracy
• Data sharing of existing observations needs
  improvement.
• Historical data base versioning?
• Tracer plan? Science drivers for repeat hydro?

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FILLING GAPS IN INITIAL PLAN

• Lots was not feasible when GCOS-IP written.
• Still looking for plans for, e.g., Marginal ice
  zones sub-Argo ocean boundary/choke pt
  currents non-physical variables ecosystems.
  OceanObs09 WhitePapers.
• Funding likely will determine priorities, but
  need technology and good plans for all.
• JCOMM and Data System need more support, even to
  reach initial goals.

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What Next?

• OceanObs09 response via Community White Papers
  has been stronggt100 proposals accepted and gt70
  recd so far.
• Communities have done a lot of work on their
  observing aspirations for next decade. Will
  publish.
• Will update GCOS IP (to v.2) and report to
  UNFCCC. Hope to get GEO POGO acceptance.
  Helpful to have widest agreement. But will this
  support non-physical variable communities
  aspirations adequately?
• Need to connect with societal benefits, address
  cost-benefit issues, trumpet successes if we are
  to keep system growing. Have to deliver value.
  Funding priorities will determine system
  evolution.
• Also need a strategy for sustaining system if
  research funding or research community interest
  in making the observations diminishes. Lots of
  retirements of key people to deal with.

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