Variability of the American Monsoon Systems

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Variability of the American Monsoon Systems
A WCRP/CLIVAR Program focused on the Climate of
the Americas
Report to CLIVAR SSG-15 Geneva,
Switzerland 11-14 September 2007 J. Marengo
H. Berbery
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Variability of the American Monsoon Systems

• Some areas of interest
• To understand the key components of the American
  monsoon systems and their variability
• To determine the role of these systems in the
  global water and energy cycles
• To improve observational data sets and
• To improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal
  prediction of the monsoons at regional scales.

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VAMOS Implementation

• Science Components
• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
• VAMOS Oceans-Clouds-Atmosphere-Land Study
  (VOCALS)
• Inter Americas Study of Climate Processes
  (IASCLIP)

Dataset Development VAMOS Data Information
Server Project Support VAMOS Support
Center VAMOS Project Office

• Cross-cutting Themes
• VAMOS Modeling Group
• Education and Outreach
• Transition to operations

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A unified approach The annual cycle of
convection over the Americas
Horel et al. (1989)
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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) (Chair
Dave Gochis)

• Emerging Issues
• Improved quantification of the impact of NAME
  special observations, particularly precipitation,
  and their associated uncertainties on monsoon
  predictions.
• Improved understanding of the multi-scale
  linkages between local, regional and large scale
  forcing mechanisms.
• Better documentation and tracking of operational
  forecast skill for a range of models, timescales
  and spatial scales.
• Accelerated transfer of research into operations
  while improving the value of forecasts to
  regional stakeholders (NOAA Climate Test Bed)
• Continuation of operational soundings in Mexico.

• NAME 2004 data archive completed
• NAME Value Added products completed
• NAME diagnostic and modeling studies
• Special Issue of Journal of Climate more

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The future of NAME NAMS diagnostic and modeling
studies, particularly those based on the NAME04
Field Campaign, will continue for the next few
years and will help motivate needs for sustained
observations and additional process
studies. While plans are to develop a transition
from NAME Tier 3 studies to IASCLIP, there will
be aspects that IASCLIP will not cover. In
addition, representation of NAMS in Pan-WCRP
Monsoon activities is expected. The future
activities and functioning of the NAME SWG are
currently being discussed.
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Intra Americas Sea
Societal Motivation Climate variability at
different time and space scales produces
catastrophic loss of life and destruction of
infrastructures and properties
Venezuela floods December 1998
The IAS region is home for more than one hundred
million people. Some countries are among the
poorest in the Americas.
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• An IAS Climate Program (IASCLIP)
• This research program is envisioned as one that
  bridges the gaps between climate research for
  North America (NAME/CPPA) and South America
  (MESA/SALLJEX/LPB) and for the Pacific (TEPPS,
  EPIC, VOCALS) and Atlantic (AMI, AMMA)
• IASCLIP Objectives
• Improve the understanding of climate processes in
  the IAS region key to the multiscale variability
  and predictability of rainfall in Americas.
• (2) Contribute to model improvement for
  prediction of multiscale rainfall variability in
  the Americas
• (3) Facilitate capacity building in the IAS
  region for societal benefit from advancement of
  climate studies and forecasts

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IASCLIP Status
-A draft of the IASCLIP Science and
Implementation Plan has been reviewed by members
of the VAMOS Panel and other scientists. -A set
of recommendations was sent to the proposers of
IASCLIP for their consideration. -A revised Sci
Imp Plan is expected in the coming months
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La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate
Project E. Hugo Berbery, co-chair for CLIVAR M.
Assuncao Silva Dias, co-chair for GEWEX
http//www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/lpb

• Main science questions
• What climatological and hydrological factors
  determine the frequency and spatial extent of
  floods and droughts? 
• How predictable is the regional weather and
  climate variability and how predictable are their
  impacts on the hydrological, agricultural and
  social systems of the basin?
• What are the impacts of global climate change and
  land use change on regional weather, climate,
  hydrology and agriculture? To what extent can
  their impacts be predicted?

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Implementation of LPB RHP
Planning meetings for the field campaign and
monitoring Sep 2006 First Science and
Implementation Steering Group (SISG) meeting
(Guaratingueta, BR) Mar 2007 Second SISG meeting
joint with IAI (Buenos Aires, AR) Oct-Nov 2007
Planned third SISG meeting (intended at Itaipu,
BR/PY)
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Monsoon Experiment in South America
(MESA) Chair J. Marengo
HYPOTHESIS The SAMS provides a physical basis
for determining the degree of predictability on
short- and long timescales over the region.
21Z 18 LST
Onset- SAMS
Mean diurnal cycle
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Moisture transport from the Amazon to
Southeastern South America-Derived from PRECIS
(HadRM3P with 50 km resolution)
Impacts of climate change in SALLJ
A2
Present
A2 Scenario?R10 HadRM3P index?(2071-2100)-(1961-9
0)
More LLJ events in the warmer climates (A2
scenario) as compared to the present, especially
during summer DJF. Wind may be more intense and
moisture transport can be more intense, even
though moisture content may be lower. LLJ would
be more frequent and possibly intense, and this
would imply more frequent intense rainfall events
in Southeastern South America
Projected Increase in frequency of intensity of
extreme rainfall events until 2100 (R10
index)-HadRM3P A2
JJA
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MESA Milestones and deliverables

• FY07 LPB-PLATEX monitoring implementation,
  Assessment of extreme event frequency changes in
  the regional climate change scenarios for South
  America (from IPCC) and their impact on
  agricultural activities, development of MESA
  Climate Indices, MESA Science and Implementation
  Plan finished. Integration with Pan WCRP monsoon
  initiative.
• FY08 - Evaluate the impact of soil moisture and
  land use changes in simulations and predictions,
  PLATEX implementation, Ultimate goal Integrated
  view of the American Monsoon Systems, related
  interhemispheric connection, monsoon
  predictability and prediction in the context of
  Pan WCRP monsoon activities. MESA Science meeting
  planned.
• Deliverables
• More comprehensive understanding of South
  American climate variability and predictability
• Strengthened multinational scientific
  collaboration across South America
• Observing system design for monitoring and
  predicting the South American monsoon system
• Measurably improved climate models that predict
  South American monsoon variability
• Climate change issues and impacts in society.
  Applications for agriculture, human health and
  hydroelectricity generation.

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C. R. Mechoso, UCLA, VOCALS SWG ChairR. Wood, U.
Washington, VOCALS Rex PI
GOALS Elimination of CGCM systematic errors in
the SEP, and improved model simulations of the
coupled system in the region and global impacts
of its variability. Improved understanding and
regional/global model representation of aerosol
indirect effects over the SEP. www.eol.ucar.edu/p
rojects/vocals
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Project Organization
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VOCALS-REX Chile-Peru-UK-USOctober-November 2008

• Pre-VOCALS atmospheric model forecast/analysis
  assessment (PreVOCALS)
• GOAL To critically assess the ability of global/
  regional models (atmospheric, chemical
  transport) to simulate VOCALS region
• WHY? Learn about current ability of models to
  forecast for REx etc.
• WHAT? Hindcasts for October 2006
• WHEN? Start October 07
• NOT An intercomparison participants use their
  forecast/analysis

• REx Ship Phase 1 1 Oct - 21 Oct 08
• Rex Aircraft Campaign 15 Oct - 15 Nov 08
• REx Ship Phase 2 23 Oct - 15 Nov 08
• R/V Jose Olaya (Peru) 25 Oct - Nov 7
• (coastal cruise)

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MODELING GROUP for VAMOS (MGV)Lead Ben Kirtman

• OBJECTIVES
• Develop VAMOS Modeling Implementation Plan with
  the purpose of integrating the NAME-MESA-VOCALS
  modeling activities.
• Integrate VAMOS field programs, research
  modeling, data assimilation, and operational
  forecasting
• Develop collaboration between VAMOS research
  community and operational centers

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Main MGV Themes
?VAMOS modeling - Land-atmosphere processes
MESA, NAME - Ocean-Atmosphere processes VOCALS,
IASCLIP - Identify and correct model
errors ?VAMOS data assimilation - Analysis and
assessing observing systems - Quantify the
impact of VAMOS observations ?VAMOS
predictability studies over the Pan American
region - Determine the predictability and
prediction skill Contribute to Pan WCRP seasonal
prediction assessment
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Final Remarks VAMOS Expected outcome

• -Contributions for a better understanding of the
  physics and dynamics of the American Monsoon
  Systems and their components, based on model
  development and data derived from field
  experiments. Links with Pan WCRP monsoon activity
• -Improving of model capacity and model
  development using techniques such as data
  assimilation and ensemble techniques, directed to
  the use of field data for applications in the
  enhancement of weather and climate. Transfer of
  knowledge to operational centers and NMHs that
  will imply an improvement operational forecasts
  in the VAMOS region
• -Further model improvement is expected once other
  field experiments planned in the VAMOS region
  (VOCALS and IASCLIP), that will update and
  improve data assimilation techniques and also
  physical parameterizations
• -Interaction with other WCRP (GEWEX, CEOP, CPPA,
  WGSIP, LBA and LPB), IGBP (SOLAS, PAGES, ILEAPS,
  IGAC) and ESSP(GWSP) for studies on physics of
  climate, and climate variability, related to
  issues such as the onset and end of the rainy
  season and impacts on society.

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VAMOS Legacy
-Science and Implementation Plans for VAMOS
components -Modeling Group for VAMOS and
Integrated Modeling Plan. -Special Issues of
inernational scientific journals. Many related
articles have been or are being published
independently of the Special Issues -Legacy
datasets from different VAMOS Field Campaigns.
Model parameterizations and skill forecast
improvements by using field data and state of the
art data assimilation (available from public web
sites) -Better knowledge of the diurnal cycle of
rainfall in the VAMOS region -Improvements in
weather and climate forecasts, as well as
hydrological forecasts and weather extremes in
collaboration with the NMHs -Improvements in the
observational network, monitoring and data access
in NAMS and SAMS region, in collaboration with
the NMHs -Implement recommended changes to
operational climate prediction systems to improve
the skill of warm season precipitation forecasts
of the NAMS -Training and capacity building in
interaction with IAI, START and regional
agencies -Interactions with other WCRP, IGBP and
ESSP initiatives