Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency

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Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency

• By
• John Haltiwanger
• University of Maryland and NBER

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Overview

• Ideal micro-macro consistency
• CES reports net job loss of 70,000 jobs in the
  month
• Drill down beyond industry and state
• Job creation/hiring vs. job destruction/separation
  s
• What type of workers?
• What type of firms?
• Productivity growth surging again drill down
  beyond industry
• Continuing establishments vs. entry/exit
• Real time micro-macro consistency very ambitious
  but currently even with substantial lag it is
  difficult
• But it is even more than this i.e., sometimes
  more than just details
• the aggregate patterns reflect complex
  aggregation of micro patterns that may vary
  dramatically from aggregate patterns.

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Trends in Unemployment Inflows, Outflows and
Escape Rates (CPS)
Quarterly Averages of Monthly SA values for
Experienced Unemployed
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Aggregate Worker Flows Convolution of
hiring/separation micro functions and cross
sectional distributions important for hiring Vs.
firing view of recessions
Open theoretical/empirical questions Properties
of h, s and f
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Hires and Establishment Growth
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Quits and Layoffs vs Establishment Net Growth,
JOLTS
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Separations-Net Relation in JOLTS Micro
Data Pooled Sample, 12 High-Growth and 12
Low-Growth Months
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Hiring/net growth micro relationship
stable across high and low aggregate growth
periods
Layoff/net growth micro relationship
stable across high and low aggregate growth
periods
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Interactions between nonlinearities and cross
sectional distribution potentially important for
aggregate fluctuations
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Closing thoughts

• Lumpy micro, smooth macro
• Nonlinear micro
• Adjustment costs
• Inherent asymmetries of different margins of
  adjustment (hiring, layoffs, quits)
• Heterogeneous micro
• Idiosyncratic shocks are an order of magnitude
  larger than aggregate shocks
• Aggregate behavior is a complex aggregation of
  lumpy, nonlinear micro behavior aggregated over
  heterogeneous units
• Relevant for many issues including helping
  understand labor market dynamics in last two
  recessions
• Also important for investment, productivity
  dynamics, etc.