Bahrain labour market trends

1
Bahrainlabour market trends

• LMRA Policy Directorate
• 15 August 2006

2
Contents

• Employment
• Quarterly employment time series
• Civilian employment is accelerating, with an
  expected addition of 66200 by end 2006
• Wages
• Establishment survey on wage structure and
  distribution, March 2006
• There are significant unexplained differences
  between Bahraini and non-Bahraini wages
• Annex
• Review of Bahrain labour market data Gaps and
  weaknesses
• Statistical tables
• Methodological descriptions

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Bahrain labour market data

• Gaps Lack of data
• Labour cost
• Productivity
• Industrial disputes
• Weaknesses Data not comprehensive or regular
• Employment
• Unemployment
• Wages and earnings
• Hours of work
• Underemployment
• Occupational injuries

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Combining data from different sources
Objective

• Maximise advantages, minimise drawbacks of each
  source
• Limit cost
• Increase periodicity
• Expand coverage
• Adjust to standards
• Obtain disaggregated statistics

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Labour Accounting

• Documenting data
• GOSI
• PFC
• CSB
• MoL
• MOIC
• Labour force survey
• Establishment survey
• National Accounts
• MI Standard codes
• Evaluating data
• Employment
• Bahraini
• Non-Bahraini
• Unemployment
• Bahraini
• Wages
• Bahraini
• Non-Bahraini

• Benchmarking at specific date
• Comparing data from different sources
• Similar concepts
• Dissimilar but interrelated concepts
• Reconciling data
• Identifying differences
• Accounting for differences
• Balancing and consolidating
• Adjusting for unaccounted differences
• Deriving consolidated benchmark
• Disaggregating
• Civil, Military
• Private, Public Sector
• Male, Female
• Youth, Adult
• Time series
• Quarterly
• 2002 Q1 -

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Table 1. Civilian employmentComparison of data
from different sourcesNov-Dec 2004
4 Labour Market Regulatory Authority (LMRA),
Market Intelligence Database, 200412. Workers on
contract, temporary assignment or below 18 years
of age.
1 Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for
Studies Research, Table 5.7, pp. 84 and 184.
2 General Organisation for Social Insurance, 28th
Annual Report 2004, Table 4, p. 23.
3 The Pension Fund Commission, Annual Report
2004, Table No. (1) and No. (7), pp. 28, 36.
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Table 2a. Total Bahraini employmentReconciliation
of data from different sourcesNov-Dec 2004
1 Mehran, F., Bahrains Illicit Labour Market,
LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of
records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412
received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of
employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not
covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F.,
Harmonisation of time series based on
administrative records for changes in coverage,
LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers,
own-account and unpaid family workers not
included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey
2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies Research,
Table 5.7, p. 184.
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Table 2b. Total non-Bahraini employmentReconcilia
tion of data from different sourcesNov-Dec 2004
1 Mehran, F., Bahrains Illicit Labour Market,
LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of
records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412
received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of
employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not
covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F.,
Harmonisation of time series based on
administrative records for changes in coverage,
LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers,
own-account and unpaid family workers not
included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey
2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies Research,
Table 5.7, p. 184.
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Table 3a. Total Bahraini employmentBalancing
data from different sourcesNov-Dec 2004
1 Mehran, F., Bahrains Illicit Labour Market,
LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of
records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412
received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of
employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not
covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F.,
Harmonisation of time series based on
administrative records for changes in coverage,
LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers,
own-account and unpaid family workers not
included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey
2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies Research,
Table 5.7, p. 184.
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Table 3b. Total non-Bahraini employmentBalancing
data from different sourcesNov-Dec 2004
1 Mehran, F., Bahrains Illicit Labour Market,
LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of
records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412
received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of
employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not
covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F.,
Harmonisation of time series based on
administrative records for changes in coverage,
LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers,
own-account and unpaid family workers not
included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey
2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies Research,
Table 5.7, p. 184.
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Table 4. Consolidated estimate of total
employment Nov-Dec 2004
Civilian employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)
Total employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)
Military Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Public
Table 5a (line 2 line 4) Private
Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Civilian
Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Public
Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) GOSI adj Table 5a
(line 1 line 5 line 6 line 7) Non-employees
LFS Table 5a (line 9) Other Free-visas
Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Private
Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) GOSI adj
Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)

Non-employees LFS Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)
Other Free-visas Male/Female proportion of M
and F in Employees GOSI adj Non-employees LFS
Completion of table by additions.
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Table 5a. Particular categories of employed
personsNov-Dec 2004
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Table 5c. Free-visa and assimilated
workers2004-2005
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Table 6. Estimation of employment 2004 Q3Ratio
estimation
a d/(1-d) b e/(1-e-f) c
f/(1-e-f) d Non-employees Bahraini LFS (Male,
Female, Nov-Dev 2004) Private sector
Bahraini e Non-employees Non-Bahraini LFS
(Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) Private
sector Non-Bahraini f Other Free-visas
Non-Bahraini (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004)
Private sector Non-Bahraini
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Table 7. Estimation of Bahraini civilian
employment 2004 Q3Youth and Adult
a y3 (Male Youth) / y3(Male Total) b
y3(Female Youth) / y3(Female Total) c 1-a d
1-b
e y6 (Male Youth) / y6(Male Total) f
y6(Female Youth) / y6(Female Total) g 1-e h
1-f
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Civilian
Civilian
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Table 5. Annual increase in civilian
employmentExpected on past trend
2002-2006against current trend 2006Q1
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Next steps

• Employment
• Review of data
• PFC data on non-civilian
• GOSI data for 2005 Q3
• CSB not in PFC
• Both in GOSI and PFC
• Review of underlying assumptions
• Review of private-public classification
• Branch of economic activity
• Unemployment (HJ)
• Wages (FM)
• Population (CIO)