THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT NAME

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THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
NAME An internationally coordinated, joint
CLIVAR-GEWEX process study aimed at improving
warm season precipitation forecasts over North
America.
Wayne Higgins and the NAME SWG US CLIVAR
Summit August 2005 NAME Homepage
http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name
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OUTLINE

• NAME Program
• NAME 2004 Field Campaign
• What was it?
• Where was it?
• Who participated?
• What are we learning?
• Where is the data?
• NAME Modeling Strategy
• Climate Model Assessments
• Climate Data Assimilation
• Climate Model and Forecast System Development
• Milestones (through 2009)
• Summary

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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS The NAMS provides a physical basis
for determining the degree of predictability of
warm season precipitation over the region.

• OBJECTIVES
• Better understanding and
• simulation of
• warm season convective
• processes in complex terrain
• (TIER I)
• intraseasonal variability of
• the monsoon (TIER II)
• response to oceanic and
• continental boundary
• conditions (TIER III)
• monsoon evolution and

Low-level (925 mb) winds and observed
precipitation
YEAR (2000) 00 01 02 03 04 05
06 07 08 Planning -------------- Preparat
ions --------------- Data
Collection - - - - - -
-------- Principal Research
--------------------------------- Data
Management ----------------------
-------------------

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COORDINATION OF MODELING AND FIELD ACTIVITIES

• One of the unique features of the NAME program
  is the collaboration between the observational
  and modeling communities.
• NAME modeling activities, which have been
  underway for several years, helped to motivate
  the enhanced observations gathered during NAME
  2004.
• Conversely, the NAME 2004 dataset has been
  leveraged to improve our ability to understand,
  simulate and ultimately predict monsoon
  precipitation months to seasons in advance.
• A driving hypothesis of NAME is that we must
  develop proper simulations of relatively small
  (spatial and temporal) scale climatic
  variability, especially the diurnal cycle, in the
  core monsoon region of northwestern Mexico.

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WHAT WAS THE NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN?

• The NAME 2004 Field Campaign was an unprecedented
  opportunity to gather extensive atmospheric,
  oceanic, and land-surface observations in the
  core region of the North American Monsoon over
  NW Mexico, SW United States, and adjacent oceanic
  areas.

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WHO WAS INVOLVED IN NAME 2004?

• The NAME 04 Field Campaign involved researchers
  from more than 30
• universities, government laboratories and
  federal agencies in 4 countries
• (United States, Mexico, Belize, Costa Rica).
• The NAME Forecast Operations Centers (Tucson,
  AZ Mazatlan, MX),
• involved more than 40 forecasters (NWS, USAF,
  SMN, private, and retired),
• at least 15 WFOs and 4 NCEP Centers (CPC, HPC,
  SPS, TPC).
• The NAME Science Working Group (responsible for
  implementing NAME
• science) involves 19 senior scientists from the
  US, Mexico and Central America
• The NAME Project Office (UCAR/JOSS, Boulder,
  CO) provided logistical, technical
  and administrative support services.

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US AGENCIES PARTICIPATING
IN NAME 2004

• NOAA OGP
• Field Observations (2.5M) Aircraft and
  Ship
• Modeling and Diagnostic Studies (1M/yr)
• NOAA NWS
• Radiosonde Observations (250K)
• NASA / THP and USDA / ARS
• Soil Moisture Experiment - SMEX04 (1M)
  Aircraft
• NSF GEO/ATM, Hydro NCAR/ATD NOAA/ ETL AL
• Windprofiler and Radar Network (1.5M)

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PARTICIPATING AGENCIES AND INSTITUTES
   

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NAME 2004 INSTRUMENT PLATFORMS
The NAME 2004 Field Campaign gathered data
from more than 20 different types of instrument
platforms, including Surface Met Stations (84
in Mexico) Radars (SMN, NCAR
S-POL) Wind Profilers (ISSs) Radiosondes /
PIBALS Raingauge Networks (Event Logging
Cooperative) Aircraft (NOAA P-3) Research
Vessels (Altair and CICESE) Satellite Data
(JCSDA) Soil Moisture Sensors Remote
Sensing GPS Precipitable Water

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NAME 2004 SCIENCE QUESTIONS

• How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of
  California / west slopes of the
• Sierra Madre Occidental related to the
  diurnal cycle of moisture and convection?
• (low-level circulation)
• 2. What is the relationship between moisture
  transport and rainfall variability
• (e.g. forcing of surge events onset of
  monsoon details)?
  
• (moisture transport and budget)
• 3. What is the typical life cycle of diurnal
  convective rainfall? Where along the western
  slope
• of the SMO is convective development
  preferred?
• (diurnal cycle)
• These form a basis for the Climate Issues
• addressed by NAME modeling activities
• focused on seasonal-to-interannual prediction

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NAME 2004 MISSIONS (PRE-EOP PLANNING)

• NAME 2004 IOP Missions were separated into
  Aircraft-Related and Non Aircraft-Related and
  ranked based on their relevance to NAME Science
  Objectives and likelihood of success.
• Aircraft-Related Non Aircraft-Related

1. MEAN MOISTURE FLUX OVER TIER I (6
flights 42 hrs) 2. STRUCTURE OF GOC LLJ (2
flights 14 hrs) 3. GENESIS / PROPAGATION OF
GULF SURGES (2 flights 14 hrs) 4.
UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHS 5. EVOLUTION OF
LAND/SEA BREEZE, PBL AND CONVECTION 6.
MCSs AND RESIDUALS
1. BASELINE MONSOON CONDITIONS 2. GULF
SURGES 3. SUPPRESSED MONSOON
CONDITIONS 4. ONSET OF THE MONSOON 5.
EASTERLY WAVES AND PLATEAU MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.

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TIMELINES FOR NAME04 FACILITIES
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POST NAME2004 ACTIVITIES

• Data collection and quality control
• Data analysis, diagnostic and data impact studies
• Modeling and prediction studies
• Transition to Operations (NOAA Climate Test Bed)
• NAME Education Module
• NAME Legacy
• Enhanced Observations (e.g. raingauge networks)
• International Coordination between NWS and SMN
• Products and Applications
• Publications
• 2 BAMS Articles
• Special Issue of Journal of Climate (25
  Articles)
•  

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NAME STRATEGY TO IMPROVE CLIMATE
FORECASTS

•  
• The NAME strategy to improve warm season
  precipitation forecasts is designed to maximize
  the linkage between the modeling, data
  assimilation and field components of the NAME
  program.
• Details of the modeling strategy are found in a
  white paper available on the NAME webpage. The
  strategy also discusses the modeling issues
  relevant to the NAMS.

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation
A Strategic Overview
NAME Science Working Group
June 2002

http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name
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ELEMENTS OF NAME
MODELING STRATEGY

• Climate Model Assessments
• NAMAP Simulations of 1990 monsoon
• NAMAP2 of 2004 monsoon
• Diurnal Cycle Experiments (NASA/GFDL/NCEP)
• Routine assessments of the NCEP CFS/GFS
• Climate Data Assimilation
• NA Regional Climate Data Assimilation System
  (R-CDAS)
• NAME 2004 data impact
• Climate Model and Forecast System Development
• NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team
• NAME End-to-End Forecast System
• Dynamical seasonal prediction of warm season
  precipitation with CFS
• Applications (Drought monitoring and prediction
  Hydrometeorological)
• Links to NOAA Climate Test Bed

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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
Climate Community
Climate Test Bed
NOAA Climate Forecast Operations
Research Development

Mission to accelerate the transition of research
and development into improved NOAA operational
climate forecasts, products, and applications.
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NAME MILESTONES

• FY04 Implement NAME 2004 Field Experiment.
• FY05 - Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on
  operational analyses.
• FY06 - Assess global and regional model
  simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon
  (NAMAP2).
• FY07 - Evaluate impact of changes in model
  parameterization schemes (NAME CPT).
• FY08 - Measure improvements in model simulations
  of monsoon onset and variability.
• FY08 Quantify the relative influence of oceanic
  and land surface boundary conditions on
  simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon (NAME Tier
  3)
• FY09 - Implement recommended changes to
  operational climate prediction systems to improve
  the skill of warm season precipitation forecasts
  (End-to-End Forecast System).

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NAME PUBLICATIONS

Journal Gutzler, D. S, H.-K. Kim, R. W.
Higgins, et al., 2004 The North American
Monsoon Model Assessment Project (NAMAP)
Integrating numerical modeling into a field-based
process study. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc (In
Press) Higgins, R. W., and the NAME SWG, 2003
Progress in Pan American CLIVAR Research
The North American Monsoon System. Atmosfera,
16, 29-65. Higgins, R. W. and the NAME SWG,
2005 The NAME 2004 Field campaign and Modeling
Strategy. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc
(Submitted) -Many others Special Issue of
Journal of Climate -encouraged by NOAA CPPA
program - 30 papers on NAME 04 and NAME
modeling prediction - 2006 timeframe

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SUMMARY

•  
• NAME 2004 was a major field campaign scheduled
  during JJAS 2004,
• with 10 IOPs during the period.
• NAME 04 data is available on the JOSS/NAME field
  catalog
• http//www.joss.ucar.edu/name/catalog/
• NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation studies will
  continue for the next several years and will
  motivate needs for sustained observations and for
  additional process studies.
• NAME will deliver
• Observing system design for monitoring and
  predicting the North American monsoon (includes
  sustained observations)
• More comprehensive understanding of North
  American summer climate variability and
  predictability
• Strengthened scientific collaboration across
  Pan-America
• Measurably improved climate models that predict
  North American summer precipitation
  months to seasons in advance.
•