The 3rd Hellenic Observatory PhD Symposium LSE, 14

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The 3rd Hellenic Observatory PhD SymposiumLSE,
14 15 June 2007Contemporary Greece
Structures, Context and Challenges.

• Cyprus EU Membership as a Catalyst for the
  Solution of the Political Problem Myth or
  Reality?
• Submitted by
• MATSOUKA CLEOPATRA
• PhD Candidate
• University of Athens
• Scholar of the PENED Programme 2003 (Ministry
  of Development/GSRT 3rd EU Framework Programme
  /Operational Programme of Competitiveness)

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I. INTRODUCTION

• Cyprus political problem remains unresolved.
• Cyprus issue ? important political and security
  implications for the regional international
  stability.
• How can such a small island be so important for
  EU politics?

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II. The importance of the Problem

• Peace and stability among the main objectives
  of the EU enlargement policy
• Developments on Cyprus and the final character of
  any solution will determine the political
  situation in the Easter Mediterranean
• De facto partition of the island demonstrates a
  constant threat to the stability of the region
• Contribution to the stability of the Greek
  -Turkish relations

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III. The actors involved

• The United Nations
• The European Union
• Republic of Cyprus / Turkish Cypriot Community
• Greece
• Turkey
• UK
• USA

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IV. The United Nations role in the process

• The island is divided into two zones since 1974
  and it has been overseen and patrolled by the
  United Nations Forces
• All efforts by the United Nations to achieve a
  solution of the Cyprus problem had failed
• The Annan Plan
• Rejection of the referendum of April 2004
  Turkish Cypriots accepted with a 2/3 majority,
  while 76 of the Greek Cypriots rejected it

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• And the EU???

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V. The European Unions instruments for conflict
response

• Sui generis instruments (political, economic,
  civil and military)
• 1st and 2nd pillar instruments
• Agreements, cooperation programs, humanitarian
  aid, the Rapid Reaction Mechanism, political
  dialogue, diplomacy, political statements,
  observation, fact- finding missions, the Policy
  Planning, Early Warning Unit, cooperation among
  Member States in the field of armament, the Rapid
  Reaction Force and Civil Crisis Management.

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..more indirect instruments

• EU exerts influence through four procedures
• Enlargement / The prospect of accession into the
  EU
• European integration (support for regional
  integration)
• European Neighbourhood Strategy Wider Europe
• Common Foreign and Security Policy (political
  dialogue and diplomacy, declaration, special
  representatives, missions, measures)

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VII. Cyprus EU Membership as a Catalyst for a
Solution?

• The division of Cyprus one of the most difficult
  issues to solve in the EU's fifth enlargement
  round.
• The Helsinki Summit (1999) underlined the
  necessity for a solution before accession of
  Cyprus and supported the UN initiatives
• Though, the Republic of Cyprus became a member
  state of the European Union on 1st of May 2004
  without a solution
• the EU incorporated the problem!

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VI. Criticism to the capabilities of the EU

• The EU is not always capable of making an
  effective use of its instruments.
• European Unions action criticized for being
  more reactive than preventing
• The EU could be more effective through a more
  focused Foreign Policy Strategy ( lack of
  coherence, multi-representation of the EU,
  sovereignty)

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The European Framework

• Offers the perfect opportunity for Turkey,
  Greece, Cyprus to take a step back (and forward)
  and rethink their positions vis-a -vis each
  another
• Has an important role in creating an atmosphere
  to all parties involved using its measures and
  approach for possible progress
• The objectives of European unification ensuring
  peace and political stability

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• The structure of the European Union, the
  institutions and the Member States can work as
  pressure mechanisms for a peaceful settlement
• The European support helps the Turkish Cypriot
  Community in various ways
• a) to end its isolation
• b) to approach the European economic standards
  through financial support and Funding that
  facilitate the economic development and
• c) to implement the acquis communitaire
• The future of Turkey's accession talks with
  the EU depend also on the successful conclusion
  of the Cyprus problem.

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VIII. Possible positive outcomes of an EU solution

• The reunification of the island would be
  beneficial for all Cypriots and particularly the
  Turkish Cypriots.
• Living standards, Economic activities, Tourism,
  Services, Industry, Agriculture, the cohesion of
  the Turkish-Cypriot community
• Cyprus bridge between East and West,
  between Islam and the EU

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• The benefits for Turkey would be even greater, as
• Turkeys road to EU partly goes through Cyprus
• Possible concessions on the Cyprus issue may
  overcome the anxieties and objections of many of
  the EU officials (and inhabitants) and convince
  them that they have nothing to fear from Turkey
  joining.
• Turkeys national objective is to join the EU. A
  possible solution of the Cyprus issue will offer
  more changes for accession and provide the space
  to carry on with the necessary reforms

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Three possible scenarios

• the pessimist scenario low interest for
  membership by Turkey or freezing of the
  negotiation process could lead to ? non
  recognition of Cyprus ? no solution ? division
  of the island ? weak political union.
• the optimistic scenario strong wiliness for
  membership could lead to ? recognition of
  Cyprus ? unification of the island ? strong
  political union
• alternative scenario
• - Turkeys privileged partnership with the
  EU
• - Cyprus political conflict finding a
  workable solution?

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• Thank you