MMECC

1
MMECC
MAINSTREAMING METHODOLOGY FOR THE ESTIMATION OF
THE COSTS OF CRIME
The Bottom-Up Approach to Estimating the Cost of
Crime A Description of the Home Office
Methodology
Richard Dubourg Economic Adviser, Home Office
Milan, 5th December 2008
MMECC is funded by the European Commission under
the Sixth Framework Programme
2
Outline of presentation
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Overview of the bottom-up approach
• Scope of the Home Office methodology
• Costs of violence
• Criminal justice system costs
• Other costs
• Results
• Omissions and weaknesses
• Issues around transferring the Home Office
  methodology

3
Overview of the bottom-up approach
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Multiple types of crime, impact, cost and bearer
• Costs constructed in terms of components
• Costs as a consequence of crime (e.g. physical
  injuries)
• Costs in response to crime (e.g. the criminal
  justice system)
• Costs in anticipation of crime (e.g. security
  equipment)
• And sub-components, e.g. of physical injuries
• Physical and emotional impacts
• Lost output
• Health treatment costs
• Impact pathways to trace out relationships
  between
• Crime event
• Impacts of the crime events (e.g. injuries,
  treatments)
• Value of the impacts of the crime event (e.g.
  cost of treatments)
• Large number of data and evidence sources

4
Scope of the Home Office methodology
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Crime against individuals and households
• British Crime Survey crime
• Assault with and without injury
• Robbery, Theft from the person, Other theft
• Theft of and from a vehicle
• Burglary
• Criminal damage
• Homicide
• Murder, Manslaughter, Dangerous driving
• Sexual offending

• In anticipation
• Theft alarms
• Insurance administration costs
• In response
• Police
• Courts
• Prisons and probation

• As a consequence
• Property stolen, damaged, recovered
• Victim services
• Health treatment services
• Lost wages (output)
• Emotional and physical costs to victims

5
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Impact pathway linking crime to injuries to
  impact on quality of life to value of quality of
  life reduction
• British Crime Survey provides information on
  physical injuries
• Literature review provides information on
  psychological injuries
• Quality of life impacts measured using the
  QALY/DALY concept
• Selected QALY/DALY monetary value

6
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Serious wounding defined by presence of broken
  bones and concussion
• Other wounding generally more serious than
  common assault
• Sexual assault and robbery apparently defined by
  context

7
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Incidence of stress symptoms based on
  international literature
• Also used as sources for additional impacts of
  rape (e.g. sexual dysfunction, depression)
• Important, since plays significant role in final
  values

8
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Quality-/Disability-adjusted life year
  (QALY/DALY)
• Metrics for combining quantity (time) and quality
  (capabilities, pain) of life into a single
  measure
• Health states assigned weights between 0 and 1
  reflecting severity
• 1 year in normal health 1 QALY
• 1 year dead 0 QALY (negative QALYs possible)
• e.g. health status associated with broken bones
  0.199
• Global Burden of Disease (World Health
  Organisation) provides weights
• Injuries described in terms of self-perceived
  health, vitality, bodily pain, mental health,
  physical functioning, social functioning,
  physical role limitations, and social role
  limitations
• Weights derived from time trade-off method
  How much time in Health State X equals 1 year in
  Health State Y?
• Various sources of evidence on durations of
  health states
• Value of a QALY based on McCarthy et al 1998, JRU
  (80k in 1997)

9
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology
10
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Importance of emotional costs
• Means sexual offences most costly
• Driven by international evidence
  transferability? Robustness?

11
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology
Lost output/day GDP/head/day 18,524/365.25
51
12
Costs of violence
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Continued importance of victim costs, especially
  emotional costs
• Means sexual offences still most costly

13
Criminal justice system costs
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology
From activity-based costing (ABC) survey of
police forces

• Applied to estimate of total police budget
  (9.3bn in 2003/04)
• Non-incident activities allocated as overhead
• Divided through by estimated number of crimes to
  give cost/crime

14
Criminal justice system costs
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Criminal statistics on disposals by crime type
• Estimated total present cost of disposals by
  crime type (3.5 discount rate)
• Divided through by estimated number of crimes to
  give cost/crime

15
Other costs
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Omissions and
weaknesses Issues around transferring the Home
Office methodology

• Other criminal justice costs (court proceedings)
  based on detailed process model of CJS using
  (e.g.) duration of court proceedings by type
• Property costs of theft and criminal damage from
  the British Crime Survey
• Emotional cost of theft and criminal damage from
  the British Crime Survey
• Victim costs of homicide assumed to be equal to
  UK Department for Transports value of preventing
  a road accident fatality (c. 1.2m)
• Other costs minor

16
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Results

• Estimates as published in latest Home Office
  publication
• No separate wounding estimates
• No separate sexual offence estimates

17
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Results

• Estimates as published in latest Home Office
  publication
• Cost per crime not costs of individual processes
  reflect reporting and detection rates

18
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Omissions and weaknesses

• Model uses large amount of data, evidence and
  assumptions, some stronger than others
• Victims and incidents in the same way, but might
  have a varying degree of associated risk or
  trauma e.g. impact of violence on elderly
• Victim-less and incident-less crimes
  difficult to define and measure, e.g.
  drug-dealing, street-walking, fraud
• Business crimes difficult to detect and record,
  e.g. shoplifting, fraud

19
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Omissions and weaknesses

• Emotional costs of acquisitive crime based on
  questions asked in BCS
• Costs of avertive behaviour large component of
  costs in anticipation of crime currently
  potentially excluded (e.g. costs of taxi compared
  to bus)
• Fear of crime not explicitly included in the model

20
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Transferring the methodology

• Issue of extent to which HO methodology and data
  can be used in other countries and contexts
• Likely to depend on two things
• Transferability
• How much are data likely to change from country
  to country? (If change is slight, no need for
  alternative sources)
• Substitutability
• How many alternative (national) sources of data
  might there be? (If there are no alternative
  sources, no choice but to use existing data)
• Question about errors in data/evidence and errors
  introduced through transfer

21
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Transferring the methodology
Transferability
Substitutability
A high transferability, low substitutability
(only one, but doesnt matter) B high
transferability, high substitutability (all the
same) C low transferability, low
substitutability (oh dear) D low
transferability, high substitutability (local
data available)
22
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Transferring the methodology
T
S
23
Outline of presentation Overview of the
bottom-up approach Scope of the Home Office
methodology Costs of violence Criminal justice
system costs Other costs Results Omissions and
weaknesses Transferring the Home Office
methodology
Transferring the methodology

• Need to test the availability and transferability
  of major sources of data
• Severity of violent crime
• Impacts of violent crime
• Definitions and practices in crime recording
• Police activity
• CJS activity and costs