What is

1
What is
Oil?
Peak
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Peak oil is the point in time in which half of
the oil that exists has been removed from the
earth. Peak oil is not the end of oil, but
rather the end of cheap and easy to reach oil.
Peak oil has implications for how we live, where
we live, what we can do and where we can go.

• Presentation Contents
• Energy is Life Support
• World Population Growth Triggered by Energy
  Appropriation
• What are Fossil Fuels?
• Fossil Fuels are the Key World Energy
  Production by Source
• Energy is the Ability to do Work
• Energy is Sprawl
• Energy is Power
• World Total Primary Energy Production
• World Total Primary Energy Consumption
• Percentage Change in World Energy Production and
  Consumption
• OECD vs. OPEC
• U.S. Energy Consumption
• U.S. Energy Production
• Peak Oil
• Price Volatility
• Vermonts Total Energy Consumption
• Implications
• For More Information

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Energy is
Life Support
Energy in the form of sunlight drives
photosynthesis in plants, which purifies the air,
helps to regulate climate and provides food for
other life forms. Human societies convert
ecosystem energy flows into resources such as
food, shelter and energy, and to power a wide
range of other activities.
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For the majority of human existence we lived in
small bands and subsisted by gathering plants and
hunting animals. With the domestication of
certain plants and animals between 10,000 and
12,000 years ago, our population grew. However,
it took the harnessing of fossil energy
powerfirst coal and then oilfor world
population to top 1 billion around 1900. Since
then, world population has skyrocketed with an
additional 5 billion people.
World population graph recreated from pp. 400-401
in Cohen, Joel E. 1995. How Many People Can the
Earth Support? New York W.W. Norton.
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Fossil Fuels
In contrast to sunlight, fossil fuelsoil,
natural gas and coalare a onetime endowment of
nonrenewable resources. The conditions under
which oil and natural gas were formed were quite
specific organic-rich sediment had to be buried
in porous rocks 7,500 to 15,000 below the ground
and covered with a leak-tight seal. As a result,
Oilfields cover less than 0.1 percent of the
continents and continental shelves (Deffeyes,
2005 17). Coal is more prolific and supplies
are expected to last for several hundred years.
Despite popular imagination, fossil fuels are not
dinosaur leftovers!
Fossil fuels are versatile, have a high return on
investment, and are packed with power. The rise
of industrial societies could not have happened
without them. Six of the last seven recessions
have also been preceded by spikes in the price of
oil (Roberts, 2004 94).
Image from www.greatwebsights.com/dinosaurs
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Fossil fuels are by far the largest resources
used for energy production around the world
Renewables
Graph source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Annual 2003. Table 2.9.
Renewable energy production for electricity or
transportation barely registers on a global scale.
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Energy is the Ability to do WORK
Oil Wheel graphic by Katie Rutherford for the
Vermont Biofuels Association
Industrial economies depend on fossil fuels for
everything from transportation and heating to
plastics and agriculture.
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Energy is SPRAWL
The suburbanization of the United States was made
possible through cheap fossil fuels and billions
of dollars in subsidies to the housing,
transportation, and automobile sectors.
The suburbs have historically reflected cherished
American middle-class values such as a home in
the countryside, mobility, and the nuclear
family. But habitat destruction, decreased
social interaction, time lost while sitting in
traffic, obesity and many other social and
environmental problems have also been attributed
to suburban sprawl.
Kunstler describes suburban sprawl as a living
arrangement that has no future (2005 17).
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Energy is POWER
According to Fortune magazine, the 12 largest
corporations in the world owe their prosperity to
fossil fuels or fossil fuel related activities
(e.g., Wal-Mart depends on cheap transportation
to stock its stores).

• Wal-Mart Stores
• BP
• Exxon Mobil
• Royal Dutch/Shell Group
• General Motors
• DaimlerChrysler
• Toyota Motor
• Ford Motor
• General Electric
• Total
• Chevron
• ConocoPhillips

The most profitable corporations in the world are

• Exxon Mobil
• Royal Dutch/Shell Group
• Citigroup
• General Electric
• BP

Source www.fortune.com
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The United States produces more energy than most
continents, but our level of production is
basically flat
Graph source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Annual 2003. Table F.1 .
A quadrillion is one thousand times one trillion.
A Btu (British thermal unit) is the amount of
heat needed to raise the temperature of one pound
of water one degree Fahrenheit.
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while our appetite grows!
Graph source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Annual 2003. Table E.1.
The rest of the world, especially Asia, is also
increasingly consuming more energy.
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Percentage Change in World Total Energy
Production and Consumption, 1980-2003
Energy consumption in the United States exceeds
national production. Imports of petroleum from
the Middle East have risen as a result.
Energy consumption in China and India now exceeds
their national production. One plausible scenario
is that the U.S. will increasingly compete with
China and India over diminishing Middle East
reserves.
Source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Annual 2003. Tables E.1 and
F.1.
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Graph source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Annual 2003. Table 2.9.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya,
Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab
Emirates, Venezuela.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada,
Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland,
Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United
States.
The West is increasingly dependent on countries
that Transparency International identified as
among the most corrupt nations in the world.
www.transparency.org
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U.S. energy consumption for all sectors consists
mainly of fossil fuels.
Graph source Energy Information Administration.
Annual Energy Review, 2004. Table 1.1.
Total energy consumption per year varies between
the states, with a high of 12,028 trillion Btus
in Texas and a low of 163.6 trillion Btus in
Vermont. On a per capita basis, Alaskans consume
the most energy per year (1,164.3 million Btus).
Vermonters rank 41st (266.9 million Btus).
Source Energy Information Administration.
State Energy Data 2001 Consumption. Tables R.1
and R.2
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Oil production in the United States peaked in
1970. We have increasingly relied on imported
petroleum since then.
Imports
Graph source Energy Information Administration.
Annual Energy Review, 2004. Table 1.1.
Since the SUV craze began in 1990, the
twenty-year-old trend in the U.S. toward
improving automotive fuel efficiency not only has
halted but is now sliding backward (Roberts,
2004).
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PEAK OIL
World oilfield discoveries peaked in the
mid-1960s. A peak in world oil production is next
Graph by Les Magoon, http//www.hubbertpeak.com/ma
goon/
M. King Hubbert was Peak Oils Paul Revere. In
1956 he predicted that U.S. oil production would
peak around 1970 (it did). His calculations were
based on the theory that The oil production rate
depends linearly on the fraction of the total oil
that remains to be produced (Deffeyes, 2005 42).
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PEAK OIL
Humanitys way of life is on a collision course
with geologywith the stark fact that the Earth
holds a finite supply of oil (Appenzeller, 2004
88).
Graph by Les Magoon, http//www.hubbertpeak.com/ma
goon/
Plotting a logistic curve on actual oil
production rates yields the smooth lines seen
above. That is, Hubberts theory fits the
actual data very well. Using this technique,
many people have predicted a peak in world oil
production sometime between now and 2010. Natural
gas follows a similar trajectory.
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On the Downside
Increasing demand and decreasing supply will
drive the cost of petroleum up.
Political events (e.g., Iraq), speculation (e.g.,
price gouging), natural disasters (e.g.,
Hurricane Katrina), and other factors can
exacerbate the problem.
The repercussions of higher fuel prices will
ripple through all sectors of the global economy.
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Even though Vermont consumes the least energy of
any state, residents will feel the pinch at the
pump and on home heating bills.
Graph Source Energy Information Administration.
Energy Consumption Estimates by Source,
1960-2001, Vermont.
Vermont also faces a potential electricity crisis
when the states contracts with Vermont Yankee
(nuclear) and Hydro-Quebec expire in 2012 and
2016 respectively.
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The Long Emergency? (Kunstler, 2005)
The implications of peak oil are daunting. Issues
surround every alternative energy source
Renewable energy sources currently cannot fulfill
global, national or Vermonts demand. A variety
of issues plague hydrogen. Despite its abundance,
coal is a heavily polluting source of energy.
Tar sands will require considerable investment to
become feasible. Nuclear energy is extremely
dangerous. What can we look forward to?
The Long Emergency is imagined as a time of
chronic instability when industrial societies
will have to scale-back their activities. Sprawl
and globalization will be untenable. Diminished
lifespans are anticipated, especially in the
developing world, where most people live.
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Or Winning the Oil Endgame? (Lovins et al., 2004)
On the other hand, sustainable development
advocates believe that a less apocalyptic future
is possible. Social life may indeed have to
become more localized, but energy efficiency can
wring power out of wasteful processes and
technologies. The renewable energy sector for
electricity and transportation (e.g., biofuels)
is rapidly emerging. Conservation behaviors can
be aided by smart growth, public transportation
and new technologies. Community supported
agriculture can provide more of our local food
needs.
Peak oil is real.
Peak oil is a challenge to global civilization.
Winning the oil endgame will require the kind of
rapid, extensive, coordinated action that is
sorely missing around the world.
Opportunity Wheel by Katie Rutherford for Vermont
Biofuels Association
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For More Information BIBLIOGRAPHY
Deffeyes, Kenneth S. 2005. Beyond Oil The View
From Hubberts Peak. New York Hill and
Wang. Kunstler, Jame Howard.  2005.  The Long
Emergency Surviving the Converging Catastrophes
of the Twenty-First Century.  New York  Atlantic
Monthly Press. Appenzeller, Tim. 2004. The End
of Cheap Oil. National Geographic. 205 (6)
80-109. Lovins, Amory B., E. Kyle Datta,
Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G. Koomey, and Nathan
J. Glasgow. 2004. Winning the Oil Endgame
Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security.
Snowmass, CO Rocky Mountain Institute.
Roberts, Paul. 2004. The End of Oil On the
Edge of a Perilous New World. Boston Houghton
Mifflin.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Deffeyes, Kenneth S. 2003. Hubberts Peak The
Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton
Princeton University Press. Heinberg, Richard.
2003. The Partys Over Oil, War and the Fate of
Industrial Societies. Gabriola Island, BC New
Society Publishers. Klare, Michael T. 2002.
Resource Wars The New Landscape of Global
Conflict. New York Owl Books. Campbell, Colin
J. and Jean H. Laherrere.  1998.  "The End of
Cheap Oil."  Scientific American.  278(3) 78-84.

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WEBSITES
General The Association for the Study of Peak
Oil Gas http//www.peakoil.net/ The Community
Solution http//www.communitysolution.org/ Energy
Bulletin http//energybulletin.net Postcarbon
Institute http//www.postcarbon.org/ Simmons
Company International http//www.simmonsco-intl.co
m Wolf at the Door http//www.wolfatthedoor.org.u
k/ Fun with Numbers BP http//www.bp.com/generi
csection.do?categoryId92contentId7005893 Energ
y Information Administration http//www.eia.doe.go
v
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Photo credit Wayne Fawbush
Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund 61 Elm
Street Montpelier, VT 05602 (802)
828-1260 www.vsjf.org