CRGAQS: New CAMx 2018 Results

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CRGAQSNew CAMx 2018 Results

• Presentation to the
• Gorge Study Technical Team
• ENVIRON International Corporation
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• May 17, 2007

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Todays Presentation

• Latest 2018 CAMx simulations
• Correction to 2018 emissions
• Results for the August 2004 episode
• Results for the five what if scenarios and the
  August episode
• Results for the November 2004 episode
• Next Steps

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2018 Emissions

• Taken from WRAP 2018 SMOKE IDA files
• Exceptions
• Uses 2004 emissions for
• Biogenics
• Fires
• Natural wind-blown dust
• Ammonia sources

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Corrections to 2018 Emissions

• Application of temporal allocation factors to
  better distribute emissions throughout the year
• Previously emissions distributed uniformly
  throughout the year
• Resulted in unrealistic conditions, such as
  residential wood combustion during August episode

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What-if Scenarios

• Case 01 zero Boardman emissions
• Case 02 zero NH3 emissions for PSAT region 5
  (east of Gorge)
• Case 03 zero on-road mobile source emissions
  for PSAT region 2 (Portland and Vancouver)
• Case 04 zero major point source emissions for
  PSAT region 2
• Case 05 zero major point source emissions for
  PSAT region 1 (in-Gorge)

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PSAT Regions
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What-If Scenarios

• Following slides are presented with no emissions
  scale
• This is to show that emissions changes indeed
  were incorporated into the modeling as expected

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Case 01 What-If Scenario(Zero Boardman)
Grid Cell (103, 50)
Location as derived From EPA data Grid Cell (103,
52)
2018 zero Boardman (note that Morrow County has
no emissions)
2018 Base Case (data from WRAP Note Boardman
position change)
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Case 02 What-If Scenario(No Ammonia East of
Gorge)
Ammonia Emissions (All Sources)
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Case 03 What-If Scenario(Zero On-Road Mobile
Portland)
On-Road Mobile Source CO
On-Road Mobile Source NOX
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Case 04 What-If Scenario(Zero Portland Point
Sources)

• Area highlighted in blue is PSAT region 2
  (Portland-Vancouver)
• Major stationary sources with CO emissions are
  shown
• Figure on left is 2018 base case
• Figure on right is the Case 04 What-If Scenario

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Case 05 What-If Scenario(Zero Gorge Point
Sources)

• Area highlighted in blue is PSAT region 1
  (In-Gorge)
• Major stationary sources with CO emissions are
  shown
• Figure on left is 2018 base case
• Figure on right is the Case 05 What-If Scenario

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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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Next Steps

• Finish November 2004 Episode What If Scenarios
• Apply modeled changes to observed levels
• Use variant of EPA RRF projection procedure
• Run PM Source Apportionment Technology
• 2004/2018, August/ November
• Complete Report