Production Simulation Program

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Production Simulation Program Task Force Report

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• Production Simulation Program Task Force
• Two Initial Tasks
• Recommend a preferred production simulation
• program for use by WECC staff to maintain
  production simulation database
• Identify and make recommendations on issues,
  options and data requirements regarding data base
  maintenance.

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Expanded Program Use by WECC Staff Simulating
the Economic Value of Transmission Expansion
Resource Adequacy Assessments
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• Background
• There are multiple programs in use by WECC
• Members
• Some WECC members use more than one
• program
• The selection by WECC of a particular program is
  not endorsement of a WECC-preferred program
• for members
• Other programs will be more preferable for
  different members

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Which Vehicle? Depends on priorities and purpose.
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• Current Program Uses within WECC
• Managing Expansion Planning Database
• Transmission Planning Tool Member Systems
• Resource Adequacy Assessments WECC
• Resource Planning
• Integrated Energy Planning
• Investigation of different market structures
• Current Market Analysis Planned versus actual
  
• Price and basis before and after a project is
  installed

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Standard for Selection
Transmission Planning Resource Reliability
Assessments Not Market Analysis or
Strategy Short Term Portfolio Management Resource
Acquisition Regulatory Policy-Resource Side
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• Initial Evaluation Phase
• Sent solicitation documents to vendors
• Received Nine Detailed Responses
• Selected 4 Candidates for detailed presentations
• The selection of the 4 candidates was unanimous

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Three Finalists
ABB - Gridview Production Simulation Program New
Energy Associates, LLC PROMOD IV PLEXOS
Solutions, LLC PLEXOS
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• Final Program Selection Methodology
• Individual Approach and Value Judgments
• Programs were evaluated on 17 criteria
• Importance of each criteria was judged by each
• participant
• Total Measure of each program a weighted value
• calculation

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Final Evaluation - Programs Rated on

• Standard Technical Capabilities LMP, SCUC,SCED
• Read-Write PSSE PSLF Power World Format
• GUI I-O Rating
• Stochastic Variable Capability
• Generation Constraint Formulation Capability
• Transmission Constraint Formulation Capability
• Resource Acquisition Capability
• Hydro Modeling Capability

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• Marginal Losses
• Phase Angle Regulators Model Capability
• Product Support
• Program Cost
• WECC Experience
• Outage Monte Carlo
• Load Monte Carlo
• WECC Member Data Maintenance and Scenario
• Modeling
• 17. General Modeling Expertise

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• Group Decision and Recommendation
• New Energy Associates PROMOD IV
• Excellent database editing tool
• Excellent scenario modeling capability
• Significant Modeling Expertise
• Commitment and Ability to making WECC
• successful

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Recommendation 2 PSPTF recommends that a work
group be created specifically for support of
production simulation models and data. There is
an immediate need to improve the production
models for hydro resources, wind resources phase
shifting transformers, and path limitations
There will be a need to continually refine and
validate the loads, resource and transmission
inputs to the production simulation data base
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Example Hydro Models
Excellent long term Hydro Models that ignore
detailed transmission information Excellent
day-ahead and short term Hydro models that have
built-in ATC models Models with not so good
hydro information and not so good optimization
strategies with detailed transmission
information What is needed is a hydro model with
good long term transmission planning optimization
strategies with sufficient physical parameters.
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Three Monthly Hydro Models

• Hydro Simulator Program (HYDSIM)
• Bonneville Power Administration
• NW Power and Conservation Council
• Hydro System Seasonal Regulation (HYSSR)
• Corps of Engineers
• PNCA Seasonal Regulation (HYDREG)
• Northwest Power Pool

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Common Elements

• Simulate the hydroelectric operation over 14
  periods per year (split April and August)
• Share hydroelectric project data
• Share historical stream flow and irrigation data
• Share flood control data

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Columbia Vista(Primarily used by Modelers and
Short-Term Planners)

• Use of H2O (Basin or Type III Optimization).
• Use of Machines (Plant or Type II Optimization
  embedded in program).

Unit 1
Unit 2
Unit 3
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Transmission System Components
Transaction
Regional Bus
Generation
Tie Line
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CV Long Term Principles

• Physical Representation of System
• Flow Network
• HV Transmission Line Limits
• Generation and Transactions
• Load Forecast
• Operations Guidance
• Subscribe to Constraints
• Maximize Value of Generation Transactions

Integrated
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Columbia River Annual Runoff Variability
119 Years of Actual January-July Volume Runoff
at The Dalles for 1879 through 2001
Yearly Jan-Jul Volume Runoff
5 yr Moving Average
Observed Flow for 1879-1928
Adjusted Flow for 1929-2001
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Potential Generation Resources in BC,
Alberta,Washington Montana Wyoming
Northern Hydro 2,000 MW
Site C Hydro 900 MW
Fort McMurray 3,500 MW
Coastal Wind and Hydro 5,000 MW
Lake Wabamun Coal 2,000 MW
Mica/Revelstoke Hydro 2000 MW
Wind 1450 MW
SE Coal 1,000 MW
Southern Wind 1,000 MW
NW Wa Gas 1,250 MW
Coal and Wind 1,500 MW
Coal and Wind 3,900 MW
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• WECC Member Provided Data
• Load data by control area, need allocation to
  bus
• Load forecasts by large region, need allocation
  to bus
• Power flow topology, additional detail
• Facility ratings
• Path Rating, Usage, Nomograms, and OTC
  limitations
• Significant Additions generators and
  transmission
• List of generators units by unit
• Fuel type of generators
• Generator configuration and age

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• Additional Data used in modeling
• Heat rates (generic) EIA reports
• Heat rates provided by owners if willing to
  share
• Thermal ramp rates
• Emissions by combustor EPA
• Emission Credits
• Minimum Generation down time
• Maintenance cycles or periods
• OM costs
• AGC and reserves

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• Additional Data-continued
• Minimum and Maximum Generation deadbands
• Hydro by unit, pondage, province
• Physical relationship for cascaded hydro dams
• Pumped storage efficiency
• Water years, public various
• Fisheries issue
• Wind and other renewables
• Demand side programs
• Regulatory policy

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Recommendation 3 WECC should work with multiple
software vendors to distribute WECC data in a
commonly agreed to format
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• Background to Recommendation 3
• There are multiple programs in use by WECC
• Members
• Some WECC members use more than one
• program
• The selection by WECC of a particular program is
  not endorsement of a WECC-preferred program
• for members
• Other programs will be more preferable for
  different members