SOC 572 Population Aging

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SOC 572- Population Aging

• James G. Anderson, Ph.D.
• Purdue University

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Comparisons Among Industrialized Countries

• Increasing longevity and declining fertility
  rates are shifting the age distribution toward
  older age groups

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Total population Age 65 and Older and 80 and
Older 2020
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Health Spending for the Elderly 1993-1995
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Factors Affecting Population Aging

• Between 1960 and 1996, all 8 countries
  experienced increases in life expectancy at ages
  65 and 80.
• Fertility rates declined in all 8 countries
  between 1950 and 1995.
• Canada and Australia have the highest immigration
  rates.
• Japan, UK, and France have the lowest.

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Health Spending for the Elderly

• Japan spend the most proportionately on the
  elderly.
• Germany spends the least.
• Little correlation between GDP spent on elderly
  and of elderly population (r-0.07)

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Long-Term Care
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Long-Term Care

• Policy of deinstitutionalization has led to
  similar institutionalized rates in all 8
  countries.
• Canada and the US provide the most formal home
  care for the elderly.
• Japan has the smallest of elderly living alone.
• In all 8 countries, the public LT care
  expenditures are about 1 of GDP.

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Relative Number of Working Age Persons

• The number of potential workers per elderly
  persons has been decreasing steadily since 1960
  in all 8 countries
• In 2000 4-6 workers for each person 65
• In 2020 2-4 workers for each person 65
• This will result in decreased revenue for SS and
  Medicare programs.

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Problems for the US

• Heavy reliance on public sector funding for
  retirement will create more inequality
• Pharmaceuticals are generally not covered for the
  elderly
• A high percentage of LT care is financed
  privately.

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Population Aging in Developing Countries

• Older populations in many developing countries
  are growing more rapidly than those of developed
  countries.
• These countries are facing older populations at
  much lower levels of per capita income. 59 of
  person 65 now live in developing countries.
  This will increase to 67.

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population Age 65 and Older 2020
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population Age 65 and Older 2020
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Life-Expectancy

• The averages mask an enormous range among
  countries.
• Life expectancy in Costa Rica, Barbados, and Sri
  Lanka is about the same as in developed
  countries.
• Some Asian countries like East Timor and
  Afghanistan and sub-Saharan African countries
  have levels of about 50 years.

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Causes of Death

• As these countries age, they experience a shift
  from the predominance of infectious and
  parasitic diseases to chronic, degenerative
  diseases.
• International PH efforts have been focused
  largely on reducing infectious and parasitic
  diseases in these countries.
• Limitation lack of data on specific causes of
  death among adults.

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Policy Implications

• As the elderly population grows, the demand for
  social and support services health care,
  housing, long term care, income will increase.
• In developing countries many of the elderly are
  in rural area with limited health care services.
• Effects on spending for health care
• Increased consumption by the elderly
• Change in the relative cohort size of the
  elderly recipients and the younger revenue
  contributors

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References

• G. F. Anderson and PO. S. Hussey, Population
  Aging A Comparison Among Industrialized
  Countries, Health Affairs. 200019(3)191-203.
• L. B. Shrestha, Population Aging In Developing
  Countries, Health Affairs. 200019(3)204-212.