DEALING WITH DECLINING ENROLMENT

1

• DEALING WITH DECLINING ENROLMENT

2
OCSTAS DECLINING ENROLMENT TASK FORCE

• Directors of Education
• Business Planning SOs
• Legal and Demographic Consultants
• OCSTA Staff

3

• MANDATE
• Study impact of declining enrolment trends
• Provide advice on strategies to manage decline

4
TAG
the ammendolia group ltd.

• An Overview of School Age Demographic Trends In
  Ontario
• Prepared By
• Jack Ammendolia, Director
• The Ammendolia Group Ltd.

5
School Age Population Trends

• ONTARIO

After more than a decade of declines in the
pre-school aged population (0-3), the Province of
Ontario experienced a slight increase of just
over 1 or approximately 6,000 0-3 year olds from
2001-2006, according to the 2006 Census.
The elementary aged population experienced a
decline of -2.6 from 2001-2006, while the
secondary aged population increased by 8 over
the same time period.
Larger grade cohorts in the senior elementary
grades continue to age and move to secondary and
are being replaced by significantly smaller
cohorts accounting for the declines in the
elementary population and increases in the
secondary. In the short to mid term, historical
elementary declines will begin to impact
secondary enrolment.
6
School Age Population Trends
ONTARIO
7
School Age Population Trends
Ontario-wide births have started to increase over
the past several years after more than a decade
of significant declines. From 2002-2005, births
have increased by more than 5.
The increasing trend in the number of births is
promising it should be noted however, that
current births are still more than 11 lower than
levels from the early 1990s
8
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
ONTARIO
Recent demographic and socio-economic trends,
combined with robust growth forecasts for the
Province suggest that the declining school age
population trends may begin to stabilize in the
short to mid term.
There are, however, important indicators that
should be highlighted and monitored.
The table below outlines the female population
aged 25-44. The recent increases in births and
pre-school aged children is consistent with a
slight increase in the 25-44 year old females
from 96-01. This same group experienced a
decline of 1.2 from 2001-2006.
9
Migration
Sustained growth and future increases in the
school aged population are reliant upon high
levels of migration into the Province.

• Migration is made up of 3 components
  immigration, inter-
• provincial migration and intra-provincial
  migration.
• It is projected that by 2030 all population
  growth in Canada will be
• attributed to immigration
• From 2001-2006 Canada grew by 1.6 million people
  of which 1.2
• million is attributed to immigration.

According to data from Statistics Canada, the
number of migrants entering into Ontario have
been declining significantly since 2000/01.
While the number of immigrants into Ontario is
declining the major impact has been due to
inter-provincial migration. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, CURRENT FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED.
10
International Inter-provincial Migration
Migration into Ontario is declining significantly
Why?
Number of Interprovincial Migrants To Alberta By
Age, 2004/05
Migrants to Alberta, Third Q, 2006
11
Catholic School Boards
Ontario Catholic school board enrolment faces
additional issues. The percent of Catholic
immigrants entering Canada has been in sharp
decline. Many immigrants entering Canada today
are coming from places with low Catholic
populations. THESE TRENDS CAN HAVE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON FUTURE ENROLMENT SHARE.
12

• Demographic trends vary widely around the province

13

• MINISTRY OF EDUCATION DECLINING
• ENROLMENT WORKING GROUP
• Announced March 25, 2008

14

• MANDATE
• Assess impact and effectiveness of declining
  enrolment grants
• OCSTA has recommended refinements
• Look at other strategies to help boards in
  adjusting costs to enrolment decline.