Perspectives on Regional Growth Shaping the Future Lord Fairfax Community College April 30, 2003

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Perspectives on Regional GrowthShaping the
FutureLord Fairfax Community CollegeApril 30,
2003
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The Current Economy
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GDP/GRP Trends

Washington
U.S.
4
Annual Rate of Job ChangeWashington PMSA
THOUSANDS
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Top Job MarketsJob Change 1999-2000(Annual Data)
Thousands
Washington 114
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Top Job MarketsJob Change 2000-2001(Annual Data)
Thousands
Washington 32
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Top Job MarketsJob Change 2001-2002(Annual Data)
Thousands
Washington 9
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Top Job MarketsJob Change Feb 2002 - Feb
2003(Monthly Over-the Year Data)
Thousands
Washington 28,400


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Top Job Markets Ranked by Job Change Feb 2002
- Feb 2003(Monthly Over-the Year Data)
Percentage Change
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Top Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate
February 2003
Percentage
U.S. 5.80
3.7
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The Major SectorsJob Change 1990-2002 (000s)
(43)
Total Change 455,000
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GRP Trends By Sub-region (1996 )
Billions
5-Yr /Yr
Northern VA
4.06
3.63
Suburban MD
District of Columbia
1.35
PMSA Total
225.5 230.3 237.5 246.3
255.7 265.1
3.29
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Employment Change for theWashington Region
000s
79
75
66
38
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Historical Context
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Population of Washington PMSA1900 - 2000
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Population Growth by Decade Washington PMSA1900
- 2000
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Population of Washington, D.C.1900 - 2000
46
12
18
Population by SubstateRegion 1900 - 2000
SMd
NVa
DC
19
Jobs DC and Suburbs1950 - 2002
000s
82
24
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PMSA Jobs and Populationby Decade
000s
POP
JOBS
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Regional Distribution

• CORE District of Columbia, Arlington,
  Alexandria
• BELTWAY Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince Georges
• OUTER All jurisdictions outside boundary of the
  Beltway Jurisdictions

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Population by Subregion1900 - 2000
BELTWAY
OUTER
CORE
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Population Distribution by Subregion1900 - 2000
BELTWAY
OUTER
CORE
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Federal and Services Employment1950 - 2000
Services
Federal Govt
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Northern Virginias Share of Virginia Growth
90-00
Percent
49
48
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Suburban Marylands Share of Maryland Growth
90-00
Percent
54
50
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Total Jobs - 2002
1,181,000
927,000
663,000
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Job Change 1990 - 2002
331,000
149,000
-23,000
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Annual Rate of Job ChangeWashington, DC 5 Yrs
THOUSANDS
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Annual Rate of Job ChangeSuburban Maryland 5
Yrs
THOUSANDS
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Annual Rate of Job ChangeNorthern Virginia 5
Yrs
THOUSANDS
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Forecasts
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Population by Subregion1900 - 2030
Round 6.3 gtgt
BELTWAY
OUTER
CORE
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Population Distribution by Subregion1900 - 2030
Round 6.3 gtgt
BELTWAY
OUTER
CORE
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PMSA Jobs and HouseholdsLast 30 Years Next 30
Years
000s
JOBS
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Change in Jobs by SubregionLast 30 Years Next
30 Years
000s
37
Change in HH by SubregionLast 30 Years Next 30
Years
000s
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Future Housing Supply and Demand Analysis for the
Greater Washington Region
John McClain, AICP Senior Fellow, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
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Purpose

• Examine future economic and housing projections
  and policies in the Greater Washington region and
  determine if anticipated housing supply can meet
  economic demand.

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STUDY AREA
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Executive Summary

• Existing (2000) Deficit 43,200
• Long-term (2025) Housing Deficit 218,100
• Several counties will reach buildout long before
  what is currently anticipated and before 2025
  given the forecasts of jobs

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Executive Summary

• The cumulative policy constraints that are
  exhibited with 2000-2025 forecast growth in
  housing of 756,000 will mean potential economic
  growth will be less by 288,400 jobs by 2025

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Executive Summary

• NOW - Compared to top ten metro areas,
  Washingtons ratio of housing values to income
  puts the region in the middle slightly less
  affordable than Philadelphia, but considerably
  better off than Boston, Los Angeles, New York,
  Chicago
• By 2025 housing price increases resulting only
  from economic growth will place Washingtons
  housing affordability LA, exceeded only by NY
• This does not take into account price increases
  resulting from inadequate supply

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Average Annual Growth80-00 vs. 00-25
000s
Last 20
Next 25
Last 20
Next 25
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Employment Forecasts Study Area Change in
5-Year Periods 2000 - 2025
000s
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Household Forecasts Study Area Change in 5-Year
Periods 2000 - 2025
000s
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Population per HHvs. Jobs per HH
Forecast
P/HH
J/HH
Sources Census, NPA, CRA
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Assumptions for Analysis

• Relationship of New Jobs Per New Household
• 30-Year Ratio 1.67
• 1990s Ratio 1.44
• Assumed Ratio 1.60

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Deficit Supply of New Housing vs. Calculated
Demand for New Housing
218,100
139,800
86,500
66,200
43,200
43,200
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2000 2025 Deficit of Growth in Jobs Resulting
from Housing Supply Constraints
Unrealized Growth 288,400
FORECAST Of JOBS
JOB GROWTH SUPPORTEDBY FORECASTS OF HOUSING
SUPPLY
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Per Cent Live Work in Own County(Jurisdictions
with 100,000 Pop.)
Reg. Avg 49
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Central Jurisdictions
1970 81 of Jobs 2000 71 of Jobs 2025 64 of
Jobs
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Workers Commuting into Beltway and Central
Jurisdictions from Outer Counties 1970-2000
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Inadequate Housing Supply will result in

• Increased costs of housing and even more
  serious for affordable housing
• Increased demand for housing further and further
  from employment centers
• Longer, more congested and odd-hour commutes
• Diminished economic potential
• Diminished fiscal capacity

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Commuting Trends
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REGIONAL COMMUTING PATTERNS -- 2000
Suburban Maryland
97,500
244,000
Northern Virginia
188,200
33,600
DC
30,900
50,400
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Travel Means to WorkWashington PMSA
Per Cent
79 14 0.5
2.7 3.8
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Change in Workers by Mode to Work, 1990 to 2000
Washington PMSA
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1990-2000 Change in Workers by Travel Time to
Work -- Washington PMSA
Minutes
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Commuting Trends in Outer Counties
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Workers 1970-2000
000s
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Percent Commute to Own County 1970-2000
Percent
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Commute to CORE 1970-2000
000s
64
Commute to BELTWAY 1970-2000
000s
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Commute to Rest of PMSA 1970-2000
000s
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Commute to Outer Tier non-PMSA (and not to own
county) 1970-2000
000s
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Issues and Challenges for Future Development in
the Washington Region
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Issues and Challenges

• Growth is Inevitable 1.5/Yr in Jobs, 2.5-3.5
  in GRP sustainable
• Jobs/HH decision-making process regionally
  fragmented
• Land Use/transportation decisions structurally
  separated
• Tax system and structure

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Issues and Challenges

• Development decision process stop-it biased ?
• Forecasts that reverse trends what intervention
  policies will work?
• Need good information and education

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