Guy Caruso, Administrator

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The Outlook for U.S. Natural Gas Markets
Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information
Administration U.S. Department of Energy
2007 U.S.-Algeria Energy Forum May 14,
2007 Washington, DC
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Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case
indicates that through 2030....

• U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an
  average annual rate of 1.1 percent
• The energy efficiency of the economy is projected
  to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8
  percent
• U.S. oil import dependency is projected to grow
  from 60 percent to 61 percent
• U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around
  2020
• Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies
  depends on unconventional domestic production,
  natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural
  gas imports
• Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at
  an average annual rate of 1.2 percent

3
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per
barrel)
History
Projections
High Price
Reference
Low Price
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
4
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel,
1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
History
Projections
Liquid Fuels
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
5
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2005
dollars per thousand cubic feet)
History
Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
6
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,
1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Industrial
Electric Power
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
Includes lease and plant fuel
Includes pipeline fuel
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net
Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Consumption
21
Net Imports
16
Production
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion
cubic feet)
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
8
U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source,
1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
Projections
History
Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional
Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore
Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore
Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved
Alaska
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas
Supply, 2006-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
Growth in Alaskan Production
Growth in LNG Imports
Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional
Base Production (all sources)
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas Production,
1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Tight Sands
Coalbed Methane
Gas Shales
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
11
U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas,
1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Overseas LNG
Canada
Mexico
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals
Lake Charles, Louisiana 9.0 Bcf Storage
Capacity Regasification Capacity Peak 2.1 Bcf
per day Baseload 1.8 Bcf per day
Gulf of Mexico, Offshore Gulf Gateway Energy
Bridge Regasification Capacity Peak 690
MMcf per day Baseload 500 MMcf per day
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U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
New Terminals
Existing Terminals
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel,
1980-2030 (billion kilowatthours)
History
Projections
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Petroleum
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
15
U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity,
including Combined Heat and Power, 2005-2030
(gigawatts)
New Nuclear
New Renewable
New Coal
Needed Capacity
New Natural Gas
Existing Other Fossil Steam
Existing Combustion Turbine
Existing Coal Steam
Existing Combined-Cycle
Existing Renewable
Existing Nuclear
Existing Pumped Storage
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
16
U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by
Fuel, 2006-2030 (gigawatts)
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and
Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual
Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007
International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006,
next release in May 2007 Examples of Special
Analyses Economic Effects of High Oil
Prices, Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Analysis
of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The
Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market Status and
Outlook, December 2003 Restricted Natural
Gas Supply Case, Annual Energy Outlook 2005

www.eia.doe.gov
Guy F. Caruso guy.caruso_at_eia.doe.gov
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WELCOME TO THE 2007 US-ALGERIA ENERGY FORUM
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