Lake Abitibi Model Forest Regional Community Constellation Impact Model

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Lake Abitibi Model Forest Regional Community
Constellation Impact Model
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This presentation is intended to convey the
utility and insight that an impact model can
provide in support of community and regional
sustainable development
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The 10 Best Reasons for Impact Analysis are
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10. Due Diligence

• Advocates and proponents use impact analysis
  reports to sell projects
• Assessments of the reports requires independent,
  arms-length capacity

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9. Measuring Sustainable Development
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8. Strategic Analysis

• Provides insights into the community impacts of
  alternative
• Projects
• Economic development strategies
• Regulation regimes
• Macroeconomic shocks
• National and provincial policies

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In my experience the RCCIM has been a tremendous
tool for the development of the Northeastern
Ontario region. The ability to understand the
impact of projects before we begin them has given
us the opportunity to choose our projects based
on where the community will find the biggest
impact. Clara LauziereEconomic Development
OfficerTimmins Economic Development Corporation
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7. Retention Strategies

• Identify community leakages of wealth and income
• Identify and test strategies to mitigate leakages

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6. Early Warning Signals

• Diagnose structural impact of mill losses
• Identify magnitude of expected impacts
• Gain insights into critical constraints
• Test response strategies

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5. Tax Flows

• Where do the tax revenues go?
• Which levels of government benefit/loose the
  most?
• How much? Quantifying the fiscal impacts

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4. Income and Wealth

• Income flows partly retained as wealth, in the
  form of real property valuation
• Impact on property values and tax flows to
  communities over time
• Asset liquidation and capital losses

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3. Structural Insights

• Comparative analysis with similar communities,
  or model communities can provide insights into
  structural strengths, weaknesses and
  opportunities in the local socioeconomy.

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2. Income and Substitution Effects

• Potential for displacement?
• Net gains?
• Or a zero sum game?

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1. Regional Awareness

• Communities in close proximity will often
  perceive themselves to be in direct competition
  for investment
• Comparative advantage
• Inter-dependencies
• Building a critical mass!
• Capitalizing on networking

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• It is an excellent tool and has been used by
  Moose Band Development Corporation in
  negotiations with Senior levels of government
  and to show the MBDC board and the First
  Nation community economic impacts of activities
  and proposals to support decision making.
• George Beasley
• Moose Band Development Corporation

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A Word of Caution
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Positioning

• Highlight the size of an industry and its role
  in the economy
• By individual companies and associations
  attempting to influence public policy
• By public agencies competing for financial
  support
• Buyer beware These tend to be mundane,
  extremely simplified and self serving
  applications of some of the tools of impact
  analysis.

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Matching Methods
Multiplier
I/O Models
Multiple Accounts
Hybrid Models
Increasing precision, robustness, cost, and
complexity
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Proven Track Record

• Over a Decade of Development and Growth
• Simple, single dimensional impact models
• Industry/sector specific impact models
• Community impact models
• Multi-dimensional, multiple accounting, and
  hybrid impact models
• Internet accessible and shareable
• Regional, multi-community, multi-sectoral

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Project Category Selection
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Revenue Details
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Expenditure Details
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Economic Impacts

• Standard indicators
• Taxes
• Imports
• Industry output
• Employment by industry

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Economic Impacts
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Graphical Displays
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Inter-Community Impacts
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Environmental Impacts

• Demand for water
• Air emissions
• Energy
• Waste
• Contaminants
• Green GDP
• Greenhouse gases

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Green GDP
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Social Impacts

• Community social data (Census)
• Labour force composition
• Average wages
• Family indicators
• Crime
• Housing

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Average Wages
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Demonstration