Fuel cells: the next microelectronics revolution

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Fuel cells the next microelectronics revolution?

• John Goodman
• President, Entegris Fuel Cells
• October 29, 2003

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Agenda

• Entegris Introduction
• Microelectronics vs. Fuel Cells
• Market Drivers/Evolution
• Microelectronics Technology Development
• Moores Law
• Cost and Volume 101
• RD
• Globalization
• Conclusions Lessons Learned

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Entegris introduction

• Founded in 1966 grew up with microelectronics
  industry
• Active in development of SEMI (global trade
  association)
• Leading supplier of wafer, chemical and gas
  handling products/services (Materials Integrity
  Management)
• Global 14 plants around the world
• Aggressively investing in Fuel Cells and Life
  Sciences markets
• Provide balance of plant components/systems,
  bipolar plates and services to fuel cell
  developers

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Microelectronics vs. fuel cell market
Fuel cells will develop like the microelectronics
Industry!
Semiconductors
Fuel Cells
5
Semiconductor market growth
6
Technology adoption cycles
Source US Fuel Cell Council
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Microelectronics market drivers/evolution
Source Paraphrased from Garth Nash Motorola
(ISS 1997)
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Fuel cell market drivers/evolution
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MARKET TIMING / INDUSTRY COST CURVE
100,000
Innovators / Early Adopters
10,000
Backup / APUs
Assured Power

Remote Stationary
System Price (/kW)
1,000
Stationary Mass Markets
Residential CHP
Automotive
100
Portable/Micro Fuel Cells
10
2000
2010
2020
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Drivers Segment
Applications
Source US Fuel Cell Council
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Lessons learned focus on drivers

• Develop international industry roadmap/timeline
  by application
• Nurture the early adopters and celebrate
  successes with PR The fuel cell PC may be the
  first killer application
• Advocate appropriately
• Recognize timing and sequence of applications
• Focus on demonstrations to drive
  manufacturing/infrastructure

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Microelectronics technology development

• The IC was invented in 1961
• 1 transistor per chip then to 42 million
  transistors on a Pentium 4
• 1 chip per wafer then to about 400 today
• Feature sizes of a human hair (100 micron) then
  to that of one aids virus (0.1 micron) today
• At the commodity costs of today
• No less daunting than the challenges we face
  today to reduce fuel cell cost, size and weight
  while we improve performance and lifetime!

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Gordon Moore in 1965

• Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as
  home computers or at least terminals connected
  to a central computer automatic controls for
  automobiles, and personal portable communications
  equipment. The electronic wristwatch needs only a
  display to be feasible today.
• Cramming more components onto integrated
  circuits. Gordon Moore. Electronics, Volume 38,
  Number 8, April 19, 1965.

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Microelectronics technology development
Integrated Circuit in 2000
Integrated Circuit in 1961
Source Gordon Moore ISSCC, February 2003
Source Dr. Bernard Meyerson IBM (ASMC 2000)
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Microelectronics technology development
Source Gordon Moore ISSCC, February 2003
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Microelectronics Technology Development
Portable PC 1985
PC 2003

• 1500
• 6 Lbs.
• Li Ion Battery

• 1500
• 25 Lbs.
• No Battery had to plug in

From Geeks only to PCs for everyone
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Mobile phones early 80s to today
Early portable phone
Dr. Martin Cooper with first handheld mobile phone
Source http//www.privateline.com/PCS/history9.ht
m
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Hurdles to Fuel Cell Commercialization
1 Must address education, standards and
regulatory issues!
Source US Fuel Cell Council
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Lessons learned technology development

• Recognize the technology hurdles size, cost and
  performance
• Address standards and regulatory issues early on
• Clearly communicate the challenges (roadmap)
• Note to view the semiconductor roadmap go to
  www.public.itrs.net
• Rally and focus the industry and RD Consortia to
  knock out the roadblocks in the roadmap

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Moores Law 2x improvement in price/performance
each generation (18 months)
Source Gordon Moore ISSCC, February 2003
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Moores Law 2x improvement in price/performance
each generation (18 months)
Source Bruce Sohn Intel (ASMC 2002)
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Lessons learned create a FC Moores Law

• Fuel Cell Corollary to Moores Law double power
  output and system lifetime at half the cost every
  2 years?
• Create an industry focus on performance and cost
  that can be measured self fulfilling
  prophecy!
• Create competitive momentum and paranoia
• Risk credibility loss if we fall off the curve

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Todays predictions will not all be correct
Source Gordon Moore ISSCC, February 2003
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Cost and volume 101
Source Gordon Moore ISSCC, February 2003
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Microelectronics volume drivers

• Product demand (obviously) government
  (military/aerospace) then business (mainframes)
  then consumers
• Focus on standards (test methods, materials,
  equipment and software interface)
• Focus and then glamorization of manufacturing
  science. At first, the glamour was in IC design.
  Now, manufacturing professionals are esteemed.
• IC manufacturers outsourced non-core competency
  items (equipment, material handling, automation,
  etc.)

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Lessons learned focus on demand development and
manufacturing science

• Advocate Government purchase programs to generate
  volumes, like in early IC days
• Military applications
• Fuel Cell powered buildings and USP
• Government vehicles
• Volumes will drive developers out of labs and
  into production. The supply chain infrastructure
  will evolve naturally. Field learning will
  accelerate. Put product in the market!! (portable
  will lead)
• Accelerate international standards development

Fuel cell costs will decline!
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RD

• RD is a huge cost for microelectronics companies
• Trend has been to outsource and form consortia to
  consolidate pre-competitive RD
• Sematech
• SRC
• Fraunhofer
• IMEC
• NSF Centers (U of AZ for contamination control)

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RD lessons learned

• Support and nurture consortia approach for
  appropriate RD, for example
• Effect of contaminants on stack lifetime
• Development of test methods
• Advocate for shared Government/Industry funding
• Develop University/Industry partnership (such as
  NSF Center at U of South Carolina)
• Consortia will accelerate industry as
  pre-competitive technology is more widely
  available
• Caution pick RD areas carefully. What is
  pre-competitive to some is the lifeblood of
  others

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Globalization

• Microelectronics, like most industries was
  nationally focused before 1980
• In the 80s, the lead in chip and IC
  manufacturing equipment market share shifted from
  the US to Japan
• Trade wars, dumping accusations, sanctions
  resulted
• Due to importance of ICs, US formed Sematech to
  improve US competitiveness
• Industry is now global

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Globalization lessons learned

• Do not bury head in the sand recognize
  international competitive position
• Work towards globalization now open markets
  will drive faster industry growth and healthy
  competition
• Form an International (global) association
• Standards
• Information sharing
• International advocacy
• Cooperative RD

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Conclusions lessons learned from
microelectronics industry development

• Identify and accelerate industry drivers
• Develop and publish an industry roadmap
• Create a Fuel Cell Moores Law mentality
• Create volume through government purchase
  programs and early adopter products
• Nurture manufacturing science
• Promote RD Consortia vs. go it alone approach
  for pre-competitive areas

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Conclusions lessons learned

• Act like a global industry now it will
  eventually happen and more international
  cooperation will accelerate the growth of the FC
  market
• Develop one Global Industry Association to focus
  on
• Standards
• Advocacy (governmental and public relations)
• Industry Information collection and dissemination
  (products)

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Conclusion

• Fuel cells will be pervasive as energy sources in
  the future and will power our portable devices,
  homes and automobiles. Fuel cells will create a
  large industry and will be a key element in the
  transition to a hydrogen based energy economy. We
  can apply the lessons learned from the
  development of the microelectronics industry to
  accelerate the evolution of fuel cells.