The Puget Sound Regional Environmental Prediction System

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The Puget Sound Regional Environmental Prediction
System
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The Big Questions1. Can we use atmospheric
models to simulate and forecast local weather
features?2. Can we create an integrated
regional environmental modeling system for
research and prediction by coupling preexisting
models and using all operational data assets?
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The Atmospheric Model MM5

• The Penn. State/NCAR mesoscale model V3.5 (MM5).
  A full physics primitive equation numerical
  prediction model, it is being run
• twice a day at 36/12/4 km horizontal grid
  spacing. 38 levels forced by the NCEP Global
  Forecast System (GFS) run
• 0 to 72h for 36/12
• 0 to 48 h for 4 km
• Twice a day at 36/12km grid spacing forced by the
  NCEP Eta Model (available sooner)

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Some Comments

• A 4-km model does NOT resolve 4-km scale
  featuresmore like 20-25 km.
• There are major issues (problems) in the physical
  parameterizations that we are actively working to
  improve, such as
• Moist physics
• Land surface and boundary-layer physics
• Radiation schemes

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24-h MM5 Precip. Bias Scores over W. WA
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Timing Error Example
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Tahoma A 30 processor SUN ES 6500 with 4 GB
Memory
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Ensemble a 20 processor athlon cluster
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WRF Cluster The Most Powerful Computer
32-Processor Athlon Linux Cluster
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The Audience for PNW MM5 Products Continues to
Increase
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Current MM5 System

• Model forecasts are verified against all regional
  observations
• Model graphics are available on the web
• Model grids are shipped to some consortium
  members (e.g., NWS)

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A Vision of an Integrated Regional Modeling System

• Output from the MM5 is now being fed into a
  number of modeling and diagnostic systems
• Distributed Hydrological Model for Western
  Washington (PRISM Major Support)
• Calgrid Air Quality Model
• Land Surface Model for Surface Temperature
  Prediction
• Smoke, Ventilation, and Fire Guidance
• Transportation Information System
• And hopefully soon will be integrated with others
  (e.g. Puget Sound)

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• Terrain - 150 meter aggregated from 30 meter
  resolution DEM
• Land Cover - 19 classes aggregated from over 200
  GAP classes
• Soils - 3 layers aggregated from 13 layers (31
  different classes) variable soil depth from 1-3
  meters
• Stream Network - based on 0.25 km2 source area

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DHSVM Distributed Hydrological Prediction System
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Calgrid Air Quality Prediction System
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Washington State DOT Traveler Information System
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U.S. Forest Service Smoke and Fire Management
System
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Ventilation Index
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U.S. Forest Service

• MM5 grids are sent to the field for running
  Eulerian and Lagrangian smoke plume/dispersion
  models.
• MM5 output used for fire fighting operations.

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Military Applications

• The NW MM5 is now the main source of regional
  forecasts for Navy and Air Force operations at
  Whidbey NAS and McChord Air Force Base, as well
  as the Everett Carrier homeport.

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Ensemble Forecasting

• A major push has been made toward ensemble
  forecasting using the MM5 because of initial
  condition and physics uncertainty.
• The goal is to provide probabilistic predictions,
  including forecasts of model skill.
• The MM5 is now being run at 36/12 km resolution
  with approximately 25 different initializations
  and lateral boundary conditions, as well as
  varying model physics.

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Regional Ensemble Configuration

• Makes use of the differing initializations (and
  boundary conditions) from major operational NWP
  centers (e.g., NCEP, Navy, Canadian, UKMET,
  Australian, Taiwanese, etc) and varying physics
  options.
• Early results very encouraging (e.g., using
  ensembles to predict forecast skill)

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Relating Forecast Skill and Model Spread
Mean Absolute Error of Wind Direction is Far Less
When Spread is Low
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Regional Observational Database

• Since the mid-1980s, have collected all
  available data networks in the Pacific NW
• Data collected and quality controlled in
  real-time
• The database is used for verification of the
  regional MM5 forecasts, regional application, and
  local research

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PugetSound
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Research on Physical Parameterizations

• IMPROVE To improve moist physics in mesoscale
  models using data from the Pacific Northwest.
  Multi-investigator project. Data from a major
  field experiment
• PBL Parameterization Project Evaluation and
  improvement of MM5 PBL schemes. Sponsored by
  the Forest Service

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British Columbia
Legend
Washington
UW Convair-580
Airborne Doppler Radar
Cascade Mts.
Two IMPROVE observational campaigns I.
Offshore Frontal Study (Wash. Coast,
Jan-Feb 2001) II. Orographic Study
(Oregon Cascades, Nov-Dec 2001)
S-Pol Radar
Offshore Frontal Study Area
BINET Antenna

• Olympic Mts.

Olympic Mts.
Paine Field
Univ. of Washington
NEXRAD Radar
Area of Multi-Doppler Coverage
Wind Profiler
Rawinsonde
Westport
Cascade Mts.
WSRP Dropsondes
Special Raingauges
Columbia R.
PNNL Remote Sensing Site
90 nm (168 km)
Washington
Ground Observer
S-Pol Radar Range
S-Pol Radar Range
Portland
0
100 km
Oregon
Terrain Heights
Coastal Mts.
Salem
lt 100 m
Orographic Study Area
100-500 m
500-1000 m
1000-1500 m
Newport
1500-2000 m
2000-3000 m
gt 3000 m
Rain Gauge Sites in OSA Vicinity
Santiam Pass
OSA ridge crest
Santiam Pass
Orographic Study Area
S-Pol Radar Range
Cascade Mts.
Coastal Mts.
Oregon
SNOTEL sites CO-OP rain gauge sites
Medford
California
50 km
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Should we go to higher resolution over Puget
Sound?
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Modeling Winds in the Columbia Gorge
Cascade Locks
Portland
Troutdale

• Strongest winds are at the exit

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1.3 km grid spacing
4-km grid spacing
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4-km grid spacing
1.3 km grid spacing
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Mesoscale Climate Forecasting

• Computer power is now available to run at high
  resolution (12km) for 5-10 years
• Driven by GCM climate predictions, could gain
  insights into local implications of global
  warming.