Joachim von Braun

1
Institutions and Technology for Development on
sources and policies of pro-poor growth in
agriculture and the rural economy

• Joachim von Braun
• International Food Policy Research Institute
• Beijing, September 25, 2005

2
Questions

• What are the evolving sources of agricultural
  growth?
• is large beautiful for agricultural growth?
• how can agricultural growth be designed to be
  pro-poor?

3
Overview

• I. Structure and Change in Global Agricultural
  Systems and Productivity
• - Food system change and small farms
• - Productivity in agriculture
• II. Sources of Agricultural Growth and Rural
  Development
• - Institutions
• - Infrastructure
• III. Science and Technology
• - Agricultural research
• - Information and communications technology
• IV. Global Scenarios pro- and anti-poor effects

4
Bifurcations of world agriculture stylized facts
5
GROWTH RATES OF WHEAT YIELDSANNUAL AVERAGE
GROWTH in percent
(Source FAOSTAT, various years) 2000-2004
6
Total Agr. Factor Productivity Growth in China,
India, USA 1970s-1990s
Sources Fan and Zhang (2002) for China Fan,
Hazell, and Thorat (1999) for India, and Ahern et
al. (1998) for USA.
7
IMPACT model projections

• Progressive Policy Actions Scenario
• New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural
  Development
• Policy Failure Scenario
• Trade and Political Conflict, rise in
  protectionism worldwide
• Technology and Resource Management Failure
  Scenario
• Adverse technology/natural resource interactions

8
Projected world cereal yields
Source IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)
9
Projected world maize price
Source IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)
10
Projected number of undernourished children, China
Source IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)
11
Questions

• What are the evolving sources of agricultural
  growth?
• is large beautiful for agricultural growth?
• how can agricultural growth be designed to be
  pro-poor?