TimeGeographical approaches to Emergence and Sustainable Societies TiGrESS

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Time-Geographical approaches to Emergence and
Sustainable Societies (TiGrESS) (Cultural
Ecodynamics at different Spatial and Temporal
scales) Summary Report at the end of Year 1
(March 2004) further copies and all link
documents available from the TiGrESS web site
Generic Activity 7.3 FP5 EVG3-2001-00024 Socio
-Economic aspects of Environmental Change in the
Perspective of Sustainable Development
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TiGrESS Time Geography and Cultural Ecodynamics

• Time Geography is an approach (an ontology)
  developed by Torsten Hägerstrand for studying
  human space-time behaviour. Related to Agent- and
  Individual-Based modelling, but much earlier and
  (from a Humanities perspective) more
  sophisticated. TG agents are innovative.
  Hägerstrand anticipated recent work on Complex
  Adaptive Systems.
• Human Culture (shared beliefs) determines
  behaviour. Behaviour has environmental impacts
  which, in turn, have consequences (some
  beneficial, some harmful). People sometimes
  change their beliefs and behaviours to manage
  these consequences (this is innovation).
  Sometimes they resist innovation even when their
  behaviour is socially or ecologically
  unsustainable. We will be better able to search
  for pathways to sustainability if we understand
  Cultural Ecodynamics.
• TiGrESS Rationale Many social, economic,
  cultural and natural resource issues addressed by
  FP5s key actions involve spatial pattern they
  arise from the uneven geographical distributions
  of people, resources and opportunities. A
  substantial subset of these problems also relate
  to dynamic phenomena. TiGrESS links Time
  Geography to State-of Art Modelling Technology
  and uses them to study Cultural Ecodynamics in
  three policy-relevant case studies.

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TiGrESS Aims and Objectives

• Develop a generic tool for Time-Geographical
  data. Dual use 1) visualising simulation data in
  real-time 2) post-processing of simulation data
  or analysing results of empirical studies.
• Three case studies to produce policy-relevant
  information and identify potential pathways to
  sustainable development.
• Evaluate the impact on researchers of using
  Time-Geographical methods to explore the dynamics
  of environmental change through socio-economic
  drivers.

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Thus TiGrESS has

• A pure research component. Re-formulate TG to
  provide clear links to recent advances in
  computer modelling and Humanities-based research
  on innovation and Cultural Ecodynamics.
• A technological component. Specify and develop a
  new software tool (TiGS).
• An applied research component. Three case
  studies.
• A science-policy component. By studying the
  impact of these tools on consortium members and
  scientists in stakeholder groups, we will
  contribute to understanding of the innovation
  process (the emergence of new shared beliefs
  leading to new behaviours) and knowledge transfer
  within the Framework Programme.

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Progress Report Year 1

• The pure research component (re-formulation of
  TG). Has substantial results to report at the end
  of year 1.
• The technological component. (TiGS) has specified
  TG requirements for analytical facilities and,
  after a period of consultation, specified of the
  new client.
• The applied research component. The three case
  studies are all in the early stages of data
  capture, all report substantial progress. One
  prototype model (Eurosim) has been built, another
  has been specified.
• The science-policy component. Has been gathering
  data in accordance with the work programme. It is
  not due to report until year 3. Originally, it
  was to focus primarily on TiGS, but has now
  broadened its remit.

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The Pure Research Component

• Work undertaken by the coordinator (Newcastle) in
  conjunction with programmers and modellers led to
  an extension and formalisation of
  Time-Geographical Concepts in four papers as part
  of WP1. The Paris team has prepared a fifth
  contribution as part of their work on WP4.
• Paper 1 provides an introduction to TG concepts
• Paper 2 extends them to connect with ideas about
  knowledge dynamics already published as a TiGrESS
  / Aquadapt contribution to the journal Human
  Ecology Review (Winder, 2004, in press).
• Paper 3 is a glossary of TG terms intended to
  facilitate communication between researchers and
  programmers.
• Paper 4 deals with the tension between those who
  argue for a purely thermo-dynamic, bottom-up
  approach and those (including Hägerstrand
  himself) willing to accept meso- or macro-scale
  models that respect the assumptions of TG. Paper
  4 was influenced by parallel work to formalise
  Multi-Scalar Time Geography undertaken in Paris
  by WP4. Multi-Scalar Time Geography is described
  in detail on page 6 of the WP4 interim report.
• Our initial positioning paper, read at the annual
  Conference on Framing Land-Use Dynamics in
  Utrecht, has now been supplemented with these
  five technical statements to form the foundation
  of the TiGrESS project. Innovation has emerged as
  a key issue in all these papers.

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The Technological Component

• Deliverable 1. A Full specification of the
  analytical requirements of the TG system was
  delivered in year 1.
• A Technical Review of applications of
  Geostatistics to Time Geography was prepared and
  will shortly be offered for publication.
• After considering three possible types of system
  architecture (Tool-Chain, Shell and Framework) a
  decision was made to use a Shell architecture
  (see below). The detailed specification of TiGS
  (the Time Geographical Shell) was presented at
  the AGM in Madrid in February. This was
  deliverable 3 on the projects programme of work.

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TiGS system architecture

• Advantages
• User experiences TiGS as one interactive
  integrated environment
• Independence between tool developers and model
  developers
• Flexibility with respect to changes in models or
  tools
• Better support for real-time tools

• Disadvantages
• More requirements for model developers
• More complex interfaces

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Applied Research Component I M11 Corridor

• The Mll region in southeastern England is a
  semi-arid region with very high population
  densities. This particular region is scheduled
  for a massive building program over the next few
  years and stress on water infrastructure is
  inevitable.
• In practice matching pipeline to demand is
  technically difficult. Replacing mains is
  expensive and over-capacity can lead to
  managerial difficulties.
• This project has begun developing an integrated
  model of landuse change, water demand and supply
  infrastructure so that developments on the
  demand-side and supply-side can be reconciled.
  This model, called INFRAPLAN is the first model
  of its type ever constructed. It consists of

• A land use template allowing specification of the
  evolution of land use patterns, housing
  densities/types etc.
• A demand projection tool.
• An infrastructure configuration and process plant
  location optimisation tool.

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The INFRAPLAN Study Area
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The INFRAPLAN structure has been finalised

• Land use change model
• Year 1 pattern LUC maps water supply network
• Change drivers regional and local development
  plans (potential), topographic and geographic
  features (0/1), scenarios (rate of pop increase
  etc.), existing water supply infrastructure

• Water demand model
• Domestic, ag ind demand
• Population characteristic independent projections
• Range of demand profiles (daily, seasonal,
  yearly, average, peak etc.)
• Scenarios - climate, affluence etc.

Land use map using 6-8 classes
User selected scenario data files

• Infrastructure model
• Network optimisation capacity expansion
• Utilises DEM

Revised infrastructure network ?
Average maximum daily demand by location
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Model construction and data collection are
underway and described in the first interim
report. Progress can be summarised as follows
INFRAPLAN platform now functionally and
structurally specified. Land Use Change
Infrastructure Expansion model specifications
well advanced. Demand forecasting approach
currently being validated. Data acquisition
ongoing scheduled meetings with 3Valleys Water
and David Lock Associates. Paper prepared for
presentation at IWA conference in Marrakech
Sept 04
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Applied Research Component II Eurosim

• EUROSIM simulates the evolution of the European
  cities from 1960 to 2030. The objective is to
  identify the basic processes of urban growth
  versus decline and to test the effects of the
  enlargement of the EU and of different scenarios
  concerning the immigration policies of the
  European countries. This years work has two
  foci
• data collection the data base including the
  population of European cities for dates 1960,
  1970, 1980, 1990 has been built using the source
  Geopolis. The question of the delimitation of
  cities has been stressed (see section 3-2). The
  spatial grid with geographical information
  (borders, main rivers, mountain) has been built
  (see section 3-3)
• methodological EUROSIM is inspired from the
  SIMPOP model which aimed to simulate, using a
  multi-agent system, the emergence and the
  evolution of a settlement system through a period
  of 2000 years. The fundamental hypothesis, that
  the spatial interactions are the driving force of
  the dynamics of a settlement system, is the same
  for EUROSIM. But a complete reconstruction of the
  functioning of the model has to be made in order
  to take into account a different focus in time
  and geographical scale. This was deliverable 2.

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Applied Research Component III Madrid

• This project is to develop a Time-Geographical
  land-use planning tool for the Madrid Autonomous
  Region
• As a research tool for exploring and providing
  advice on land use planning regulations. It will
  be used by scientists within TiGrESS partner
  institution in their work as consultants in the
  planning process.
• As an educational tool for students in land
  planning and ecosystem management courses. These
  courses will be carried out mainly within TiGrESS
  partner 5 institution for training at graduate
  and post-graduate level for professionals
  involved in the planning process.
• As a tool for the strengthening the
  democratisation process through making data and
  information available to the wider public. This
  will be achieved by writing and distributing a
  report in Spanish and a CD carrying illustrative
  material.

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Madrid Achievements in Year 1

• The Madrid study has involved the collection of
  an enormous database including GIS resources,
  information about governance structures, soil
  bio-diversity, environmental legislation. A small
  sample of these materials can be viewed here. See
  also the interim report on these activities.
• This process is now coming to an end and the
  Madrid team is entering a phase of stakeholder
  consultation and model development. The Madrid
  model is scheduled for delivery in Year 3, though
  a prototype will be ready towards the end of Year
  2.
• Although our original focus was land planning
  and pathways to sustainable agriculture, the
  planning regulations published since the project
  began make no mention of sustainable agriculture,
  though environmental sustainability is a planning
  issue under the new regulations. We will
  therefore re-focus our work on competitive
  sustainable agriculture as a tool for managing
  natural resources.

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The Science-Policy Component

• In the course of Year 1 two consortium members
  have attended a number of meetings as participant
  observers. Their preliminary findings are
  summarised in a presentation and detailed interim
  report.
• Although this program was initially to have
  focussed on the use of the TiGS client it was
  decided to broaden the teams remit to include an
  assessment of TG as a scientific innovation. This
  group is not scheduled to present detailed
  findings until year 3 of the project.
• A workshop on TG methods is being considered for
  year 3. This will be the subject of a separate
  bid for an accompanying measure.
• A research assistant has been retained to prepare
  a report on innovation theory as represented
  across the Humanities, Social and Political
  Sciences. These findings will be presented in the
  second interim report and incorporated into the
  final report of the TiGrESS project.

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Time-Geographical approaches to Emergence and
Sustainable Societies Project Status at the end
of Year 1 (March 2004)
All TiGrESS deliverables due in the course of the
first year have been presented. A substantial
number of theoretical and positioning documents
have been prepared. One paper has been published
(Winder, 2003) a conference paper has been
presented, a third paper is due for presentation
soon (in Marakesh) and a fourth (Winder, 2004) is
in press. Six or more additional papers are in
preparation. The TiGS system has been specified
in accordance with the work programme and a
prototype TG model provided by the EUROSIM team.
The TiGS development programme is on
schedule. Large databases have been prepared by
the EUROSIM and Madrid teams and an integrated
water management system has been specified for
the M11 corridor. The Science Policy initiative
has been widened in scope. Innovation has emerged
as a key additional focus of research.