DEVELOPMENT OF DRAFT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR THE OKAVANGO BASIN

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DEVELOPMENT OF DRAFTMANAGEMENT STRATEGIESFOR
THE OKAVANGO BASIN
Peter Ashton
CSIR Environmentek P.O. Box 395, Pretoria
0001, South Africa
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OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

• Understanding the resources available
• Development pressures in the basin
• Using scenarios to understand possible future
  conditions and needs
• Translating scenarios into management options
  and strategies
• Implications for each basin state
• Some important lessons

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UNDERSTANDING THE RESOURCES AVAILABLE
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MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL
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SHARED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
The types of solutions that are selected
for the Okavango / Makgadikgadi basin could
be used in other SADC basins
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WATER ABUNDANCE / SCARCITY
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PROPORTION OF WATER INFLOWING / TRANSFERED FROM
NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES
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MAKGADIKGADI CATCHMENT
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KEY WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ISSUES

• Escalating demands for water for development
  needs in each basin state
• Okavango River and Delta ecosystems are
  very complex highly vulnerable
• Regional and international pressure to
  abide by treaties, protocols, agreements
• Need to harmonize policies and plans
• Need effective stakeholder engagement in
  decision-making processes

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DEVELOPMENT PRESSSURES IN THE BASIN
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DEVELOPMENT PRESSURES (1)

• Need to meet sustainable development
  objectives in each country
• Extensive de-mining needed in Angola
• Stimulation of Angolas economy and
  rehabilitation of socio-economic system
• Food production for rural and urban centres
  in each country
• Energy production for regional growth
• Rehabilitation of infrastructure (Angola)

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DEVELOPMENT PRESSURES (2)

• Need to meet reasonable demands for water
  in each country (both within and outside
  basin)
• Prevailing poverty and health issues
• Need for appropriate institutional structures
  and governance systems
• Re-location of displaced people (Angola)
• Few competent technical professionals
• More effective stakeholder engagement in
  decision-making processes

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POTENTIAL DAM SITES
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THE LEGACY OF CONFLICTS
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2002 ADULTHIV/AIDSPREVALENCEIN SOUTHERN AFRICA

• Data Sources
• UNAIDS, 2003
• World Population
• Data Sheet, 2003

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USING SCENARIOS TO UNDERSTAND POSSIBLE FUTURE
CONDITIONS AND NEEDS
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CONTROL VERSUS CERTAINTY MATRIX
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TAKING CHARGE IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD
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DEVELOPING OPTIONS TO INCREASE CONTROL
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EXAMPLES OF SCENARIOS
Implications of two contrasting scenarios
for water quantity in the Okavango basin.
Horizontal arrow indicates no change Upward
arrow indicates increased water use.
1. Maintain status quo no additional
development
2. Co-ordinated maximal resource development
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TRANSLATING SCENARIOS INTO MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
AND STRATEGIES
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POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES OPTIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT

• Regional conservation areas and eco-tourism
  developments linking Angola to Botswana,
  Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe
• Hydropower developments on the upper Cubango
  Cuito rivers Kavango river
• Irrigated agriculture on fertile floodplains
• Water imports from Kasai River
• New agriculture and industry in Angola
• New tourism operations in each country
• Collaborative management plans

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TYPICAL MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
Existing and New Demands
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STRATEGIC CHOICES
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DEVELOP MANAGEMENT PLAN
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DAMS AND SHARED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN
AFRICA
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WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
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KEY ROLE OF STAKEHOLDER LINKS AND
PARTNERSHIPS

• Stakeholder partnerships facilitate and
  reinforce policy implementation
• Based on mutual respect and shared
  responsibility for outcomes of actions
• Complement Government decisions and action
  plans enables delivery of services
• Ensures alignment with principles of
  sustainable development
• Ensures representation of all role players
  and decision makers - legitimacy

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IMPLICATIONS FOR EACH BASIN STATE
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PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS (1)

• Decision-making frequently based on imperfect
  / incomplete knowledge
• Shared information and data - key to
  improved management and co-operation
• Technical ingenuity generates data
• Social Ingenuity legitimizes data
• Negotiate rules to reduce uncertainty
• Reduce focus on national self-help options
• Enhanced regional co-operation needed

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PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS (2)

• Decision-Support Systems are vital for
  shared river management
• Represents the status of knowledge in the
  Okavango basin
• Promote consensus reduce uncertainty
• Data become legitimate knowledge and
  wisdom when institutionalized
• Knowledge allows institutional adaptation and
  informed decision-making

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MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS

• Understand system characteristics
• Reach agreement on future needs and
  priorities in each country
• Create partnerships with stakeholders and
  share information
• Select and use appropriate management tools,
  processes and institutions
• Management options must include within-basin
  and between-basin issues

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STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
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SOME IMPORTANT LESSONS
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IMPORTANT LESSONS (1)

• Create a shared vision for the future
• Align and harmonize national and regional
  policies and legislation
• Provide information in suitable forms allow
  time for debate / legitimization
• Create necessary professional capacity
• Develop appropriate institutions of
  governance
• Focus on shared benefits and not only on
  water issues

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IMPORTANT LESSONS (2)

• Make allowances for educational, financial
  and cultural constraints
• Emphasize collaboration, alignment and
  harmonization, rather than integration
• Emphasize shared linguistic, cultural and
  historical links between stakeholders
• Design suitable processes for conflict
  prevention and resolution
• Agree on appropriate analytical tools

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FLOWS AT POPA FALLS NOVEMBER 1996
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FLOWS AT POPA FALLS FEBRUARY 2004