American Public Perception of Mars Mission Economics: Establishing a Proper Context

1
American Public Perception ofMars Mission
EconomicsEstablishing a Proper Context

• Brian Enke
• SwRI
• Boulder, CO
• benke_at_boulder.swri.edu
• AUTHOR
• Shadows of Medusa

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GOALS

• Put the U.S. investment in manned spaceflight
  into a proper CONTEXT.
• Provide "Take-Home Points" to assist with damage
  control.

3
Outline

• Public Perception
• Baseline Mission
• NASA Budget
• US Government Budget
• US Economic Activity
• Public Perception

4
ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)

• 75 believe the space program is a good
  investment!
• Humans-to-Mars favored (49 vs 42)
• Conclusion Many people believe a manned Mars
  mission would not be a good investment, i.e. too
  expensive

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ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)

• Quote from a retiree in New Jersey
• "We can go there after all the things wrong on
  Earth are fixed. I'm totally against any of it.
  It's a total waste of money we need for our kids,
  for illnesses, could put somebody's kids through
  college, could cure so many diseases."

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Take-Home Point!

• Health, Education, and Welfare are IMPORTANT
  investments!
• We should never advocate reducing the funding for
  these programs. We don't need to.

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Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

• 76 would increase NASA funding or keep it
  unchanged
• 59 believe humans will set foot upon Mars within
  25 years! (18

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Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

• 83 believe a manned space program is important!
• HOWEVER......
• 24 believe the US should end its manned space
  program altogether

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Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)
Question 2 What percentage of the federal
budget do you think is spent each year on the
nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

• Less than 1
• 1 to 5
• 5 to 10
• More than 10
• Not sure

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Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)
Question 2 What percentage of the federal
budget do you think is spent each year on the
nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

• Less than 1 20
• 1 to 5 37
• 5 to 10 19
• More than 10 17
• Not sure 8

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Take-Home Point!

• Watch out for loaded survey questions!!!

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Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)
Question 2 What percentage of the federal
budget do you think is spent each year on the
nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

• Less than 1 20
• 1 to 5 37
• 5 to 10 19
• More than 10 17
• Not sure 8

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Ipsos - Public Affairs Poll for AP(1/12/2004)

• 5 questions Margin of error /- 3,
• Conducted before Presidential vision announced
• Rumors of a trillion dollar space boondoggle
• Bush Moon/Mars plan opposed (43 - 52)
• United States Moon/Mars plan split (48 - 48)
  (9 swing)

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Ipsos - Public Affairs Poll for AP(1/12/2004)

• Q1 ... expanding the space program ...
  Considering all the potential costs and benefits
  ...
• Q2 Some have suggested that space exploration on
  the moon and Mars would be more affordable using
  robots than sending humans...
• Q4 ... our investment in space research ...
  better spent on domestic programs such as health
  care and education?

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"The space program is too expensive!!"Where does
this perception come from?

• Poor terminology cost vs investment
• Lack of accurate information (rumors)
• Lack of CONTEXT

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• Public Perception
• Baseline Mission
• NASA Budget
• US Government Budget
• US Economic Activity
• Public Perception

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Mission Baseline Mars Direct

• Goal Good science
• Crew of 4 for 2 years
• 500 km surface range
• Payload 54 tonnes
• Risk Medium
• 7 years to develop
• 3.5 billion / year

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Take-Home Points!

• INVESTMENT PER YEAR is a good metric to use.
• Media estimates like "One Trillion Dollars" are
  meaningless rubbish.

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Mission Baseline Mars Direct(from NASA/ESA
study, Hunt van Pelt, 2003)
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Mission Baseline Mars Direct(from NASA/ESA
study, Hunt van Pelt, 2003)
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Take-Home Points!

• ONGOING investment/year is more interesting than
  DEVELOPMENT investment/year
• A reasonable ongoing estimate for a Mars science
  mission is 3.5 billion/year

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• Public Perception
• Baseline Mission
• NASA Budget
• US Government Budget
• US Economic Activity
• Public Perception

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NASA Budget Question

• What is NASA's proposed 2005 budget?
• 145 Billion
• 42 Billion
• 33 Billion
• 16 Billion
• 9 Billion

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NASA Budget Answer

• What is NASA's proposed 2005 budget?
• 145 Billion
• 42 Billion
• 33 Billion
• 16 Billion
• 9 Billion

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NASA Budget Question

• What percentage of the 2005 NASA budget is
  invested in Human Space Flight"?
• 92
• 72
• 52
• 32
• 12

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NASA Budget Answer

• What percentage of the 2004 NASA budget is
  invested in Human Space Flight"?
• 92
• 72
• ------ 52
• 32
• 12

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NASA Budget 2005(proposed, billions) (from
www.nasa.gov/about/budget/index.html)

• TOTAL OUTLAYS 16.2 100
• Space Science 4.1 25
• Earth Science 1.5 9
• Biological/Physical Research 1.0 6
• Aeronautics 0.9 6
• Education 0.2 1
• Space Flight (ISS, Shuttle, Ops) 6.7 41
• ISS, Ops 2.4
• Shuttle 4.3
• Exploration Systems 1.9 11

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Take-Home Point!

• The proposed 2005 budget for the Space Shuttle
  and Exploration Systems is 6.2 billion per year.
• But what does this number really mean? We still
  need a proper CONTEXT.

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• Public Perception
• Baseline Mission
• NASA Budget
• US Government Budget
• US Economic Activity
• Public Perception

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US Government Budget Question

• What is the proposed US Federal Budget for 2005?
• 2400 Billion
• 1700 Billion
• 1000 Billion
• 800 Billion
• 300 Billion

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US Government Budget Answer

• What is the proposed US Federal Budget for 2005?
• 2400 Billion
• 1700 Billion
• 1000 Billion
• 800 Billion
• 300 Billion

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Take-Home Point!

• The entire 2005 NASA budget is 16 billion, LESS
  THAN ONE PERCENT of the federal budget.
• Note This is still true even when the 5.7
  billion NSF budget is added.

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2005 US Government Budget(proposed, billions)
(from http//www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/
tables.html)

• TOTAL OUTLAYS 2400 (100)
• Social Security 510 (21)
• Medicare/Medicaid 478 (20)
• 445 (19)
• Defense 429 (18)
• Health Human Services 68 ( 2.8)
• Education 57 ( 2.4)
• Homeland Security 47 ( 2.0)
• HUD 31 ( 1.3)
• NASA budget 16 ( 0.7)

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2005 US Government Budget(proposed, billions)
(from http//www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/
tables.html)

• TOTAL OUTLAYS 2400 (100)
• Social Security 510 (21)
• Medicare/Medicaid 478 (20)
• BUDGET DEFICIT 445 (19)
• Defense 429 (18)
• Health Human Services 68 ( 2.8)
• Education 57 ( 2.4)
• Homeland Security 47 ( 2.0)
• HUD 31 ( 1.3)
• NASA budget 16 ( 0.7)

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2005 US Government Budget Without NASA(proposed,
billions) (from http//www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budg
et/fy2005/tables.html)

• TOTAL OUTLAYS 2400 (100)
• Budget deficit 445 ( 19)
• NASA budget - 16 ( 0.7)
• -------
• 2005 budget deficit w/o NASA 429 ( 18)

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Take-Home Points!

• The US Government operates on DEFICIT / SURPLUS
  spending.
• Any money "saved" reduces the deficit.
• Any money spent elsewhere increases the deficit.

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Take-Home Points!

• If the US Government wants to spend more money on
  welfare, health care, or education, IT WILL.
• Investment in spaceflight is irrelevant to such
  decisions.

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Take-Home Points!

• Deficits are paid off over time, possibly by our
  children and our grandchildren.
• These are the same generations that will benefit
  the most from deficit INVESTMENTS into the space
  program.

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Misc US Government Investments(billions) (from
misc media/gov sources)

• Budget deficit (2005) 445
• Extra tax revenue economy imprv. (2005) 82
• Military weapons RD (2005) 66
• Proposed 6-year highway bill (2004)
  53 (318)
• Iraq war (2003, est 3/24) 75
• Med/Med fraud (yearly, est) 26
• Airline bailout (2002) 20
• Farm subsidies (2004) 19
• NASA budget 16
• Med/Med cost overrun (2004, est) 4
• Mars Direct (not) 4

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(US) State Government Statistics(billions) (from
http//www.census.gov and http//www.state.co.us)

• Total US Population (8/12/2004) 293,985,161
• Colorado population (7/2005 projected)
  4,400,000 (1.5)
• 2005 Colorado General Fund
• Total 2005 Outlay Request 5.6 -- 374
• Dept of Education 3.2 -- 214
• Dept of Health Care 1.2 -- 83
• Dept of Human Services 0.5 -- 31
• NASA budget 0.2
• (County? Local? ...)

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• Public Perception
• Baseline Mission
• NASA Budget
• US Government Budget
• US Economic Activity
• Public Perception

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United States Economy(billions)

• US GDP 8/2003 - 7/2004 (www.bea.gov)
  11649 (100)
• 2005 proposed US Government Budget
  2400 (20.6)
• 2005 proposed NASA Budget 16 (0.14)

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Misc US Economy Figures(billions)

• US Trade deficit, June, 2004 (Commerce Dept)
  56
• Microsoft 2004 revenue 37
• Microsoft mid-2004 cash reserve 50
• Microsoft 2004 special dividend 32
• General Motors 2003 revenues 186
• General Motors end-2003 assets 288
• Walmart Q2/2004 revenues 70

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More US Economy Figures(billions)

• 2002 State Farm "Administrative Fees" (State
  Farm) 7.0
• Yearly 1990's golf course construction
  (USPGA) 9.5
• Average assets of 10 random investment
• management firms (Pacific Life, 2003)
  390.7
• Yearly Europe/US ice cream purchases
  (UN,USDA) 31.0
• 2002 US alcoholic beverages (www.usda.com)
  114.0
• Yearly artwork sold worldwide (art-exchange.com)
  100.0
• US yearly cost of spam e-mail (Nucleus Research,
  7 min/day) 87.0
• Hurricane Charley insurance payouts (est)
  (AP) 11.0

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Take-Home Points!

• Mars Direct can be funded...
• By 1 out of every 8 ice cream purchases....
• By 1 out of every 25 beer and wine purchases...
• By reducing the cost of spam e-mail by 5...

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• Public Perception
• Baseline Mission
• NASA Budget
• US Government Budget
• US Economic Activity
• Public Perception

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Gallup Research Poll(7/2004)(Jim Banke,
Coalition for Space Exploration The Space
Foundation)

• Sponsored by the Coalition for Space Exploration
• No loaded up-front questions, less bias
• Realistic CONTEXT provided
• NASA budget request less than 1 this year
• 55 per year for the average taxpayer
• No political baggage

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Moon/Mars Initiative Support

• Ipsos-AP
• Bush plan opposed (43 - 52)
• US plan split (48 - 48)
• Gallup
• Plan strongly favored (68 - 24)

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Take-Home Point!

• To remove more than half (24 28) the
  opposition to the Moon/Mars plan
• Remove politics
• Cap the investment at 1 of the federal budget.

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• http//www.boulder.swri.edu/benke/present/mars/ec
  onomics2004.html

This presentation may be freely distributed.
Please contact the author with any suggestions or
corrections.
Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute benke_at_boul
der.swri.edu Author Shadows of
Medusa www.shadowsofmedusa.com