Seismic Safety Indices Tools to motivate governments and communities David C Hopkins

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Seismic Safety IndicesTools to motivate
governments and communitiesDavid C Hopkins
GEM Outreach Meeting Munich 8-10 June 2009
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As professionals committed to earthquake risk
reduction
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.we get upset when we see this
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Urban Search Rescue
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Damage to built environment

• Mexico City 1985, US50 Billion, 10 years
  reconstruction
• Northridge 1994, US44 Billion, 4 years
  reconstruction
• Kobe 1995, US180 Billion, 4 years
  reconstruction
• Izmit, Turkey 1999, US30 Billion, 7 years
  reconstruction
• Many others since

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What to do?
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We need more effective measures to improve
seismic safety
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Seismic Safety Indices

• Single Event Index
• Fifty-year Index
• Vulnerability Index
• Capability Index

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Seismic Safety Indices

• Simple distillation of complex information
• Consistent derivation
• Measure progress over time
• Effective communication tool

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Single Event Index

• Single Event Index (National)
• (Estimated Loss) / (National GDP)
• Single Event Index (per capita)
• (Estimated Loss) / (GDP per capita)

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Fifty-year Index

• Fifty Year Index (National)
• (Sum (Di x Pi)) / (National GDP)
• Fifty Year Index (per capita)
• (Sum(Di x Pi)) / (GDP per capita)

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Vulnerability Index

• Vulnerability Index
• (Total loss from damage to assets) /
  (Replacement value of assets)

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Capability Index

• Measures the capability of a country
• to improve seismic safety

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• Capability Index
• (Total score) / (Highest possible score) x
  (lowest individual score / 3)
• 28 / 42 x 1 /3 0.22
• The highest possible value for D1 would be 1.0,
  when all elements score 3
• (Capability Index 30 / 30 x 3 / 3)

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Communication tool

• Even without numbers, the diagram is a simple and
  graphic way of highlighting the issues
• Each heading can be used to explore detailed
  aspects and identify specific actions

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Vulnerability Index - some comments

• Needs to be accepted
• Effort needed to develop and refine
• Insights of analysis valuable
• Broad assessments will do to start
• Indices are a good focal point
• Will help target seismic safety projects

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Seismic Safety Indices

• Single Event Index
• Fifty-year Index
• Vulnerability Index
• Capability Index

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Seismic Safety Indices

• Good focal point for GEM work
• Can enhance impact of GEM output
• Consistent , comparable
• Capture key aspects
• Simple, yet meaningful