Indirect Estimation

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Indirect Estimation

• Infant, Child and Life Expectancy using Census
  data

September 2008 Training Course/Workshop on
Statistics for MDG Indicators
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• Important concepts in demography include-
• The crude birth rate, the annual number of live
  births per 1000 people.
• The general fertility rate, the annual number of
  live births per 1000 women of childbearing age
  (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but
  sometimes from 15 to 44).
• age-specific fertility rates, the annual number
  of live births per 1000 women in particular age
  groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.)
• The crude death rate, the annual number of deaths
  per 1000 people.
• The infant mortality rate, the annual number of
  deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000
  live births.
• The expectation of life (or life expectancy), the
  number of years which an individual at a given
  age could expect to live at present mortality
  levels.
• The total fertility rate, the number of live
  births per woman completing her reproductive
  life, if her childbearing at each age reflected
  current age-specific fertility rates.
• The gross reproduction rate, the number of
  daughters who would be born to a woman completing
  her reproductive life at current age-specific
  fertility rates.
• The net reproduction ratio is the expected number
  of daughters, per newborn prospective mother, who
  may or may not survive to and through the ages of
  childbearing.

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Why use indirect estimation for mortality
indicators in PNG?

• The usual sources such as the Civil Registry
  Office and the Health Information System are
  unable to produce reliable and accurate data for
  the direct estimation in PNG.
• The procedure of indirect estimation has been
  used since 1980

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What is the next best option available?

• The population censuses conducted every ten years
  (1980, 1990 and 2000).
• The DHS conducted as inter-censal periods.
• These two sources then become the available means
  to generate the required estimates on mortality.

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What were the questions used in the obtaining the
required data?

• Q20 How many children have you given birth to?
• Q21 How many of your own children are living in
  this house?
• Q22 How many of your own children are living
  elsewhere?
• Q23 How many of your own children are dead?
• Q7 Is the persons own mother still alive? (For
  the maternal orphan-hood technique)

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Possible Errors or limitations to the data used.

• Omission of lifetime fertility of never married
  women.
• Report by proxy respondents
• Adoption bias
• Reporting of live births as still births or vice
  versa
• Non-response
• Zero error

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Methodology

• Contrary to births and migration, death occurs
  only once to every person as part of the
  demographic process.
• Using information on Children Ever Born,
  Surviving and Dead by age and sex.
• The Average number of children ever born (Pi),
  surviving (Si) and Dead (Di) were calculated for
  women in 5 year age group. (see table A1)
• Then the Di values are then converted in
  life-table probabilities (qx)
• To convert to life-table probabilities, the
  modified brass method was used in the conversion.
  This was done using the CEBS program using the
  Mortpak Software program.
• The output produces values for each of the
  life-table models.
• Brass method on Logit Transformation is used to
  adjust lx values for the women age groups 20-34
  years.

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• Once all the lx values are adjusted then the
  analysis of the adult mortality is done.
• The Brass/Hill Maternal Orphan-hood Technique
  which requires several iterations to calculate
  the alpha and beta values.
• These values are then used to solve to
  simultaneous equations, which are required to
  construct the two-parameter Logit life-tables.
• The remaining procedure requires the use LIFTB
  program in Mortpak to generate the require
  life-table.

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Thank you for your attention