PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation Planning especially in NAPA Development

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PRIVA - A Tool for Adaptation Planning
especially in NAPA Development

• Paul V. Desanker
• Penn State University/Miombo Network
• (UNFCCC LDC Expert Group AIACC Project AF38)
• desanker_at_psu.edu
• www.africaclimatechange.org
• www.miombo.org
• www.NapaPrimer.org

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Inspired by the need for a paradigm shift from
impact assessments top down approaches

• Consider a (real) maize study GCMs maize models
  lots of simulations and output data 2 years
  later

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Maize study

• Conclude that maize production and so food
  security is sensitive to climate variability
  especially erratic rains some of the GCMs
  scenarios projected wetting, others drier
  conditions ...

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Bear in mind

• GCM scenarios are not predictions! They are
  projections of what might happen if the drivers
  of that scenario were in effect .

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Impacts to adaptation

• That study then recommended adaptation options as
  follows
• Need to adopt drought resistant cultivars
• Manage water better to withstand erratic rains
• Switch to crops other than maize

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Now the question is

• Are these conclusions and adaptation options
  informed by the 2-year modeling study of
  potential impacts of different GCM projections?

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Need for a paradigm shift

• Clearly we need to look at adaptation differently
  .
• We still need the impact assessment studies, no
  doubt, but not to directly inform adaptation (esp
  those based on multiple scenarios)

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Need for a paradigm shift

• One of the missing pieces is of course how to put
  the results of the scenario assessments in the
  context of what might actually happen
• The various uncertainties in the climate system
  and the assessments themselves notwithstanding

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NAPA under the UNFCCC

• National Adaptation Programme of Action for Least
  Developed Countries (LDCs)
• Designed to implement Article 4.9 of the FCCC
  that relates to LDCs
• LDC Fund created under the convention with
  voluntary contributions from Annex II countries
• LDCs negotiated this programme and designed the
  methods for doing NAPAs, etc, with active
  participation of many experts and agencies
• Implemented under the GEF, and has gone from idea
  in 2000 to full programme by COP-7 in Nov 2002

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Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA

• In summary, we believe you can identify (some)
  major needs for adaptation by an informed
  interaction with stakeholders in relation to
  their experience and livelihoods
• For a given region, we can identify major climate
  hazards and threats (qualitatively if data
  insufficient)
• Then for major sectors or systems important for
  livelihoods (or other metric), we can
  characterize impact potential

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Enter the NAPA Idea and PRIVA

• In order to fully describe vulnerability, need to
  understand the community or system that is
  exposed in terms of adaptive capacity
• Given the risk of climate hazards, impact
  potential and adaptive capacity, we can define
  Vulnerability. And then,
• Adaptation is the process of decreasing
  vulnerability

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PRIVA ...

• Participatory Rapid Integrated Assessment of
  Vulnerability and Adaptation (PRIVA)
• Mix of process, tools (such as GIS for data
  processing and display, and models)

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Conceptual description of PRIVA

• Semi-formal description of vulnerability and
  adaptation
• Integrates hazard and risk assessment, functional
  relationship of systems to climate, thresholds,
  adaptive capacity etc
• Analytical solution likely, but can solve/resolve
  semi-quantitatively (using participatory approach)

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PRIVA for NAPA (from NAPA Primer, Desanker 2004
The NAPA Primer)
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Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in terms of Eqn 2

• Define adaptation to minimize (to zero even)
  through any of the following
• By reducing the risk associated with hazards by
  manipulating components of risk
• (Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is
  outside domain of analysis for the LDCs)
• Reduce impact potential through manipulation of
  the system dependence on climate (cropping
  manipulations for instance)
• By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key
  determinants such as poverty, access to financial
  resources, etc)
• Carry out above in a multi-dimensional analysis
  or less effectively by addressing only one or
  some of the components

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Applying PRIVA to NAPA

• Current knowledge and experiences with climate
  (variability, extremes etc) sufficient to go
  through steps using participatory approaches for
  all LDCs
• No expectation that NAPA activities will identify
  or address all adaptation needs especially
  long-term needs
• NAPA to address the transition period between
  recent past/present climate and future changed
  climate

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Transition period NAPA domain
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Cascading or nested spatial scales

• Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until
  issue is manageable in relation to
  stakeholders, or in terms of funding limitations
• For example, apply at national level to
  identify/select most vulnerable regions and
  systems or sectors or communities (hotspots)
• Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions
• Iterate until can identify clear actions
  (adaptation activities) that are easily
  implementable and address specific
  communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc)

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Cascading or nested spatial scales

• In fact, PRIVA approach can be applied at any
  scale, from regional, national, sub-regional to
  community level depending on the stakeholders

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Summary of PRIVA

• National level tool for vulnerability assessment
• Data include maps, and spreadsheets with data by
  various subdivisions including admin districts,
  basins, etc
• Thematic data such as population, land use, land
  cover, transportation, etc
• Models impact models as needed

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Summary of component tools in PRIVA

• Data analysis (climate data, etc., Fortran
  programs, statistical software IDL/ENVI)
• GIS for spatial data analysis and display
  (Arcview, AWhere)
• Impact models various, biome/crop distribution
  models, crop models, etc)
• Ranking Multiple Criteria Analysis (e.g.
  Definite)
• Consensus Building approaches

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Comments

• Most impact models such as in compendium, are
  stand alone application suites not trivial to
  combine or modify
• Most cannot modify/customize

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Next Steps

• Development of PRIVETTES for specific climatic
  hazards and sectors
• Coastal areas and erosion, flooding
• Drought
• Agricultural and Food Security
• Ecosystem Goods and Services in shared river
  basins

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Further information

• Desanker, P. (2004). The NAPA Primer. LDC Expert
  Group, UNFCCC, Bonn, Germany, 203p.
• Information on NAPA www.unfccc.int/ldc,
  www.napaprimer.org and links therein

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The NAPA Primer will be launched at 1 pm,
Thursday December 9th, 2004 Room XXXX,
XXX Refreshments will be served
Desanker, P. 2004. The NAPA Primer. United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) Least Developed Countries Expert Group
(LEG), Bonn, Germany, 198p.
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