WHANAU 2027

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WHANAU 2027
Sir Roy McKenzie Annual Lecture 2007

• Mason Durie
• Massey University

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Sir Roy McKenzie1922 - 2007
Accountant Executive director Philanthropist J R
McKenzie Trust Board McKenzie Education
Foundation Roy McKenzie Foundation Rotarian
Order of New Zealand Knight Commander of the
Order of the British Empire D Litt (Honorary)
Massey D Comm. (Honorary) Victoria Roy McKenzie
Centre for the Study of Families Victoria
University Teaching Development Centre.
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Whanau
Whakapapa Whanau Metaphorical Whanau
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Whakapapa Whanau

• Descended from common ancestors
• A kinship group who are descendants of the oldest
  living persons grandparents (usually about 6
  generations)
• A Whanau is distinct from a hapu, where the
  founding ancestor does not form part of the
  memory of living members

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Whakapapa Whanau
Generation 1
Generation 2
Oldest living relative Generation 3
Generation 4
Generation 5
Generation 6
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Kaupapa Whanau

• Maori groups who do not necessarily share the
  same recent ancestors
• Urbanisation
• Common interest or mission
• Subscribe to whanau values
• Flexible rules for engagement and disengagement

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Whanau in Contemporary Aotearoa

• Whanau as carriers of culture
• Whanau as models for lifestyle
• Whanau as portals to community
• Whanau as gateways to te ao Maori
• Whanau as guardians of landscape
• Whanau as economic units

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Whanau as Carriers of Culture

• Language
• Values
• Tikanga
• Kawa
• Knowledge
• Custom
• Inter-generational transfers

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Whanau as Models for Lifestyle

• Generational boundaries
• Co-operation
• Risk avoidance
• Nutrition
• A work ethic
• Leisure

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Whanau as Portals to Community

• Schooling
• Health services
• Employment
• Leisure
• Sport
• Environment

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Whanau as Gateways to te ao Maori

• Marae
• Iwi
• Networks
• Tribal resources
• Maori institutions

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Whanau as Guardians of Landscape

• Whanau
• land
• Waahi tapu
• Mahinga kai
• Environmental management
• A conservation ethic

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Whanau as Generators of Wealth

• Economic units
• Whanau resources
• Inter-generational transfers
• Succession
• SMEs
• Tribal entitlements

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WHANAU 2027 - Exploring the Future

• Educated Guess
• Past Trends
• Statistical modelling
• e.g. demographic projections
• Life-course epidemiology
• Scenario development

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Lessons from the past

• Titiro whakamuri, kia anga whakamua
• The Future is Behind Us

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Past TrendsMaori Transformations 1900 - 2000

• 1900 1925 Recovery a Subsistence Economy
• 1925 1950 Rural entrepreneurship around marae
  and kainga
• 1950 1975 Urbanisation and whanau
  dispersal
• 1975 2000 Language and cultural reformation
• Wider participation in society and in te
  ao Maori
• Political voice

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Demographic Trends total NZ population
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Demographic Trends Median Age
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2006 2016 2026
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Demographic Trends Median Age Ethnic Groups
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European (39 44yrs)
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Asian (28 36yrs)
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Maori (23 26yrs)
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Pacific (21 24yrs)
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2006 2021
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Life Expectancy Regional VariationThe Social
Report 2007 Regional Indicators
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Ethnic Diversity in NZ
Life Course Epidemiology
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Maori Demographic Transitions
1,000,000
800,000 22
500,000
565,329 15 (Median age 22.7 yrs - 2006)
200,000
45,000
100,000
2050
1800
1900
2000
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Maori Age Group Changes 2001 - 2021
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Proportion of Maori and non-Maori
children 1996-2051
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Under 15 Age Group 2001-2021
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Increase of older Maori in Maori population
1996-2051 (4.1 in 2006)
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Mäori DemographySummary of main trends

• Definition of Mäori has changed over time
• Current population (ethnic Mäori) 565,329 and
  growing
• Largely urban
• 1 in 4 live in greater Auckland region
• Median age 22.7 years (2006)
• Population will age (increase in over 65s)
• Proportion of Mäori children in NZ projected to
  be 1/3 by 2051
• Mäori population will comprise about 22 of total
  New Zealand population by 2051.

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Exploring the FutureLife Course Epidemiology

• Health incidents in earlier years will impact on
  health profiles in later years
• Maori health futures are largely a function of
  current health experience

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Maori Health Futures

• Otitis media in infancy increases risk for
  hearing disability throughout life
• Rheumatic fever in childhood increases risk of
  heart disease in 4th decade
• Smoking in adolescence increases risk for cancer
  in 5th and 6th decades
• Diabetes in 3rd or 4th decade increases risk of
  heart disease, poor vision, renal disease in 5th
  and 6th decades

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Burden of Disease

• The burden of disease that will be carried by
  Maori in 2027 can already be partially estimated
  from current epidemiological patterns
• There will be significant social, personal and
  whänau costs, with consequences for the Maori
  economy
• The case for prevention and early intervention is
  strong e.g. nutritional practices, immunisation

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Scenario Development

• Need to consider impacts of
• Globalisation
• Climate change
• Information, CIT, technology
• Indigenous aspirations
• Increased capability kaumatua, skills, te reo
• Greater diversity ethnic, interests,
  occupations, locations

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Whanau 2027Four scenarios

• Whanau Disconnect
• Whanau Hub
• Whanau Reliance
• Whanau Co-op.

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Scenario 1 Whanau DisconnectBy 2027 whanau will
be

• Global travellers
• Living as nuclear families
• Mostly disconnected from wider whanau
• Culturally diverse (Asian, Pacific, Australian)
• Largely landless
• (Maori Land Consolidation Act 2015)
• Members of Maori communities
• Whanau identity less relevant than a Maori
  identity

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Scenario 2 Whanau Hub By 2027

• Schools will only teach subjects that have
  international currency
• The State will have minimal reach into families
  and whanau
• Social transfers will be paid direct to whanau
• Welfare and health agencies will seek to empower
  whanau rather than providing direct services
• Treaty of Waitangi settlements will have
  financial benefits for whanau, rather than for
  Iwi, hapu, or individuals
• (The Whanau Vesting Act 2020)
• As a result, whanau will be
• The main vehicles for transferring language and
  culture
• Active agents for securing employment
• Providers of care for disabled and older members
• Promoters of health and wellbeing.
• Fulcrums for community interaction
• Gateways to Iwi.

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Scenario 3 Whanau reliance

• The 2014 fish virus epidemic has progressively
  depleted fish stock and almost destroyed the main
  Maori industry- fishing . As a result by 2027
• Whanau incomes have declined to record low levels
• Disparities in health and education have
  re-appeared
• Whanau unemployment has escalated
• Concerned that whanau are unable to cope, the NZ
  government has decided that a centralised system
  of control is necessary
• Schools provide cultural, social and educational
  services for children
• Social welfare agencies provide short and long
  term care
• Iwi runanga acting as agents for welfare services
  for adults and older people
• Whanau are dependant on the state and state
  agents such as Runanga

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Scenario 4 Whanau Co-op.

• Following the establishment of the Whanau
  Institute for Economic Development in 2012,
  whanau participation in SMEs greatly increased.
• A network of whanau businesses had consolidated
  by 2017 and progressive sharing of resources and
  capital was occurring.
• By 2027 the Whanau Enterprise Co-op had become a
  major player in local and regional businesses
• The Co-op had founded a chain of agencies
  nicknamed the corner-street dairies (after a
  late 20th century take-over of small shops by
  Asian families)
• Whanau were applying profits to education,
  sporting excellence, and advanced cultural
  development
• Commercial contacts had also been established
  with other indigenous family groups.

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Preferred futures ?

• The future is already here

Whanau disconnect Whanau hub Whanau
reliance Whanau Co-op
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Accepting the Future vs Shaping the Future

• What is possible ?
• What is probable ?
• What is desirable ?

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Assessing the Future
RMcK
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Roy McKenzie1922 - 2007

• Roy McKenzie Centre for the Study of Families

Implications
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Implications

• decisions made decades earlier will have
  consequences for whanau years later
• policies that may seem whanau-neutral can have
  perverse effects on whanau
• political ideologies have potential to
  significantly alter whanau structures, roles and
  functions
• cultural, social and economic functions are
  inter-related
• undesirable scenarios can be mitigated by
  pro-active planning

Planning
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Planning whanau futures
Whanau as Carriers of culture Models of
lifestyle Portals to community Gataways to te
ao Maori Guardians of landscape Economic units
Trends Demography Ideologies Policies The
economy Global risks opportunities
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