Title: WHANAU 2027
1WHANAU 2027
Sir Roy McKenzie Annual Lecture 2007
- Mason Durie
- Massey University
2Sir Roy McKenzie1922 - 2007
Accountant Executive director Philanthropist J R
McKenzie Trust Board McKenzie Education
Foundation Roy McKenzie Foundation Rotarian
Order of New Zealand Knight Commander of the
Order of the British Empire D Litt (Honorary)
Massey D Comm. (Honorary) Victoria Roy McKenzie
Centre for the Study of Families Victoria
University Teaching Development Centre.
3Whanau
Whakapapa Whanau Metaphorical Whanau
4Whakapapa Whanau
- Descended from common ancestors
- A kinship group who are descendants of the oldest
living persons grandparents (usually about 6
generations) - A Whanau is distinct from a hapu, where the
founding ancestor does not form part of the
memory of living members
5Whakapapa Whanau
Generation 1
Generation 2
Oldest living relative Generation 3
Generation 4
Generation 5
Generation 6
6Kaupapa Whanau
- Maori groups who do not necessarily share the
same recent ancestors - Urbanisation
- Common interest or mission
- Subscribe to whanau values
- Flexible rules for engagement and disengagement
7Whanau in Contemporary Aotearoa
- Whanau as carriers of culture
- Whanau as models for lifestyle
- Whanau as portals to community
- Whanau as gateways to te ao Maori
- Whanau as guardians of landscape
- Whanau as economic units
8Whanau as Carriers of Culture
- Language
- Values
- Tikanga
- Kawa
- Knowledge
- Custom
- Inter-generational transfers
9Whanau as Models for Lifestyle
- Generational boundaries
- Co-operation
- Risk avoidance
- Nutrition
- A work ethic
- Leisure
10Whanau as Portals to Community
- Schooling
- Health services
- Employment
- Leisure
- Sport
- Environment
11Whanau as Gateways to te ao Maori
- Marae
- Iwi
- Networks
- Tribal resources
- Maori institutions
12Whanau as Guardians of Landscape
- Whanau
- land
- Waahi tapu
- Mahinga kai
- Environmental management
- A conservation ethic
13Whanau as Generators of Wealth
- Economic units
- Whanau resources
- Inter-generational transfers
- Succession
- SMEs
- Tribal entitlements
14WHANAU 2027 - Exploring the Future
- Educated Guess
- Past Trends
- Statistical modelling
- e.g. demographic projections
- Life-course epidemiology
- Scenario development
15 Lessons from the past
- Titiro whakamuri, kia anga whakamua
- The Future is Behind Us
16Past TrendsMaori Transformations 1900 - 2000
- 1900 1925 Recovery a Subsistence Economy
- 1925 1950 Rural entrepreneurship around marae
and kainga - 1950 1975 Urbanisation and whanau
dispersal - 1975 2000 Language and cultural reformation
- Wider participation in society and in te
ao Maori - Political voice
17Demographic Trends total NZ population
18Demographic Trends Median Age
41
39
36
2006 2016 2026
19Demographic Trends Median Age Ethnic Groups
50
European (39 44yrs)
45
Asian (28 36yrs)
40
35
Maori (23 26yrs)
30
Pacific (21 24yrs)
25
20
2006 2021
20Life Expectancy Regional VariationThe Social
Report 2007 Regional Indicators
21Ethnic Diversity in NZ
Life Course Epidemiology
22Maori Demographic Transitions
1,000,000
800,000 22
500,000
565,329 15 (Median age 22.7 yrs - 2006)
200,000
45,000
100,000
2050
1800
1900
2000
23Maori Age Group Changes 2001 - 2021
24Proportion of Maori and non-Maori
children 1996-2051
25Under 15 Age Group 2001-2021
26Increase of older Maori in Maori population
1996-2051 (4.1 in 2006)
27Mäori DemographySummary of main trends
- Definition of Mäori has changed over time
- Current population (ethnic Mäori) 565,329 and
growing - Largely urban
- 1 in 4 live in greater Auckland region
- Median age 22.7 years (2006)
- Population will age (increase in over 65s)
- Proportion of Mäori children in NZ projected to
be 1/3 by 2051 - Mäori population will comprise about 22 of total
New Zealand population by 2051.
28Exploring the FutureLife Course Epidemiology
- Health incidents in earlier years will impact on
health profiles in later years - Maori health futures are largely a function of
current health experience
29Maori Health Futures
- Otitis media in infancy increases risk for
hearing disability throughout life - Rheumatic fever in childhood increases risk of
heart disease in 4th decade - Smoking in adolescence increases risk for cancer
in 5th and 6th decades - Diabetes in 3rd or 4th decade increases risk of
heart disease, poor vision, renal disease in 5th
and 6th decades
30Burden of Disease
- The burden of disease that will be carried by
Maori in 2027 can already be partially estimated
from current epidemiological patterns - There will be significant social, personal and
whänau costs, with consequences for the Maori
economy - The case for prevention and early intervention is
strong e.g. nutritional practices, immunisation
31Scenario Development
- Need to consider impacts of
- Globalisation
- Climate change
- Information, CIT, technology
- Indigenous aspirations
- Increased capability kaumatua, skills, te reo
- Greater diversity ethnic, interests,
occupations, locations
32Whanau 2027Four scenarios
- Whanau Disconnect
- Whanau Hub
- Whanau Reliance
- Whanau Co-op.
33Scenario 1 Whanau DisconnectBy 2027 whanau will
be
- Global travellers
- Living as nuclear families
- Mostly disconnected from wider whanau
- Culturally diverse (Asian, Pacific, Australian)
- Largely landless
- (Maori Land Consolidation Act 2015)
- Members of Maori communities
- Whanau identity less relevant than a Maori
identity
34Scenario 2 Whanau Hub By 2027
- Schools will only teach subjects that have
international currency - The State will have minimal reach into families
and whanau - Social transfers will be paid direct to whanau
- Welfare and health agencies will seek to empower
whanau rather than providing direct services - Treaty of Waitangi settlements will have
financial benefits for whanau, rather than for
Iwi, hapu, or individuals - (The Whanau Vesting Act 2020)
- As a result, whanau will be
- The main vehicles for transferring language and
culture - Active agents for securing employment
- Providers of care for disabled and older members
- Promoters of health and wellbeing.
- Fulcrums for community interaction
- Gateways to Iwi.
35Scenario 3 Whanau reliance
- The 2014 fish virus epidemic has progressively
depleted fish stock and almost destroyed the main
Maori industry- fishing . As a result by 2027 - Whanau incomes have declined to record low levels
- Disparities in health and education have
re-appeared - Whanau unemployment has escalated
- Concerned that whanau are unable to cope, the NZ
government has decided that a centralised system
of control is necessary - Schools provide cultural, social and educational
services for children - Social welfare agencies provide short and long
term care - Iwi runanga acting as agents for welfare services
for adults and older people - Whanau are dependant on the state and state
agents such as Runanga
36Scenario 4 Whanau Co-op.
- Following the establishment of the Whanau
Institute for Economic Development in 2012,
whanau participation in SMEs greatly increased. - A network of whanau businesses had consolidated
by 2017 and progressive sharing of resources and
capital was occurring. - By 2027 the Whanau Enterprise Co-op had become a
major player in local and regional businesses - The Co-op had founded a chain of agencies
nicknamed the corner-street dairies (after a
late 20th century take-over of small shops by
Asian families) - Whanau were applying profits to education,
sporting excellence, and advanced cultural
development - Commercial contacts had also been established
with other indigenous family groups. -
37Preferred futures ?
- The future is already here
Whanau disconnect Whanau hub Whanau
reliance Whanau Co-op
38Accepting the Future vs Shaping the Future
- What is possible ?
- What is probable ?
- What is desirable ?
39Assessing the Future
RMcK
40Roy McKenzie1922 - 2007
- Roy McKenzie Centre for the Study of Families
Implications
41Implications
- decisions made decades earlier will have
consequences for whanau years later - policies that may seem whanau-neutral can have
perverse effects on whanau - political ideologies have potential to
significantly alter whanau structures, roles and
functions - cultural, social and economic functions are
inter-related - undesirable scenarios can be mitigated by
pro-active planning
Planning
42Planning whanau futures
Whanau as Carriers of culture Models of
lifestyle Portals to community Gataways to te
ao Maori Guardians of landscape Economic units
Trends Demography Ideologies Policies The
economy Global risks opportunities
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