GLERLs Hydrology Program

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GLERLs Hydrology Program Thomas E. Croley II
Chansheng He Cynthia Sellinger Timothy S.
Hunter Carlo DeMarchi Margaret Lansing Donna
Kashian Ann H. Clites Tom Johengen Tomas
Höök David Schwab Nathan Bosch Craig Stow
David Allan Stuart Ludsin Ed Rutherford
Donald Scavia Robyn Boeke Mike Wylie Nathan
Geisler David K. Rea David Salomon GLERL
Internal Project Review December 1011,
2007 Great Lakes Environmental Research
Laboratory, NOAA 2205 Commonwealth Blvd., Ann
Arbor, Michigan 48105-2945
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Next Generation Large Basin Runoff
Model 46 Watershed/Lake linkages for beach
closing forecasts (CEGLHH) Great Lakes Resource
Shed Delineation (CEGLHH, NYSG) Forecasts of
Hypoxia Ecological Effects (ECOFOR
NOAA/CSCOR/COP) Saginaw Bay watersheds Multiple
Stressors Impacts (NOAA/CSCOR/COP) Saginaw Bay
watersheds climate change, land use, invasive
species (EPA/STAR) Great Lakes Sensitivity to
Climatic Forcing (old NSF) 17 Improving DLBRM
Capabilities (DeMarchi) 25 Coupling QPE GL
Hydrologic Models (DeMarchi) 8 Lake Erie Yellow
Perch Recruitment Predictor (Ludsin) 2
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Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model _at_ Pixel Level
Schematic applies to each 1 km2 cell of
watershed cascade of storage tanks (linear
reservoirs) independent evaporationpotential
evaporation variable area infiltration degree-
day snowmelt Tank outflows are inflows to
downstream tanks flow routing determined by
elevations discretized watersheds to 1 km2
resolution
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Grand River Watershed (Lake Michigan)
Built maps of observable watershed
characteristics elevation, slope, roughness,
soil texture, land cover, upper/lower soil
zone water capacity, thickness, permeability
later, nonpoint pollution surveys
Elevation
USZ Permeability
USZ AWC
LSZ Permeability
LSZ AWC
Manure N loading
Manure P205 loading
Calibrate define spatial variation of model
parameters use observable watershed
characteristics search for spatial mean
parameter values minimize RMSE of model
actual flows
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Basic Model Application Databases
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Daily Model Calibrations
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Hourly Model Calibrations
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Non-Point Source Areal Surveys
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In-Stream Point Sources Data
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Water Quality Forecasting

• Regression models
• Forecast water quality parameters using as input
  season, discharge, temperature, precipitation
• Operational (short term, present climate and land
  use)
• Transport models
• Forecast water quality parameters using a
  detailed survey of pollutant sources in the
  watershed and mass/energy transport equations
• Operation and planning (long term, different
  climate and land use scenarios)

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Resource Shed Defined with Multiple Loading
Simulations
Maumee resource shed on January 1, 1950 from one
and seven days previous loadings
1 day
31 day
Outlet
Outlet
0 0.03
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Linked Maumee Western Basin Site 835 August 31
Resource Sheds
LOI
1 day
1 week
2 weeks
3 weeks
4 weeks
0
0.5e-5
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http//www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Programs/pep/resourc
eshed/maps.php
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Grand River Hydrology Water Quality Model
Objectives

• Forecasts for
• Discharge
• Water Temperature
• Fecal Coliforms
• Sediments
• Other pollutants
• Objective
• Link Watershed Model Forecast to Circulation
  Model Forecast to Predict Beach Closings

Grand River
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Grand River Watershed Simulation
4 FPS
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GLERLs Short-term Deterministic Outflow Forecast
uses

• Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM)
• Observed meteorology for period prior to forecast
  
• Initial moisture storage conditions for DLBRM
• Forecast meteorology from NWS for forecast period
• Streamflow gauge data from USGS
• Materials transport models

Observed Meteorology
Forecast Meteorology
Initial Storages
Gauge Data
DLBRM
Stream Outflow and Water Quality Forecasts
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Calibrations ? Hourly for 5 more watersheds ?
Daily for 12 Erie watersheds Surveys ? 12 5
watersheds for manure, fertilizer,
pesticides ? Build GIS layers of DLBRM RUSLE2
parameters for 5 watersheds ? Gather analyze
in-stream water quality data for 8 5
watersheds Transport ? Estimate
annual/seasonal averages build discharge
relations sediment in 6 target watersheds,
nutrient microbes in 7, and in-stream
temperature in 7 (including Saginaw) ? Add
transport to DLBRM sub-calibrate Resource
Sheds ? Develop for 11 Erie watersheds ?
Develop for other materials for 8 watersheds
Forecasting ? Link 7 watersheds to lake
circulation models ? Maybe assess climate change
scenario nutrient/microbe impacts
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Publications for CY07
T. E. Croley II 46 C. DeMarchi 25 T. S.
Hunter 100 M. Lansing 40 A. Clites 40 C.
He 25 Data Purchase 2000 Travel (Scientific)
1500 Travel (Administrative) 1000 Visiting
Scientist (25) 51,909
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AHPS Terminal Lakes
Matching MHG Historical Water Balance
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AHPS Terminal Lakes
Steady-State Water Levels As a Function of
Climate Terminal Lake
Climates Superior, 4.7 T P
60 Michigan-Huron, 4.5 T P 63