2000 PostElection Analysis

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2000 Post-Election Analysis
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Table of Contents
I.
A "look back" to the 2000
Presidential Race
II.
What else does the 2000 presidential election
tell
us about what has changed about the
electorate?
III.
The 2000 Gubernatorial Elections
IV.
Tracking recall of the key issues in
Congressional
campaigns.
V.
The Prescription Drug Issue
VI.
Looking Forward
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I.
A "look back" to
the 2000
Presidential
Race
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Bush vs Gore
What happened? How did it get so close?
Gore did
very

well among late-deciders.
The issue agenda moved to Social Security as a
vote determinate.
High "right direction" numbers finally moved
most of these late-deciders to Gore.
Gore consolidated Democrat voters in what
became a
very
ideological campaign.
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Key subgroups of the 17 of voters who were
"late-deciders" in the last few days before the
election.
Those with education of High
Nader 2000 Voters
School or Less
Perot 1996 Voters
Moderates
Those with household incomes under
Health Care as reason for voting
20K
for President
Weak/Lean Democrats
Those between ages of 18-34
Non-Voters in 1996 Presidential
Moderate/Conservative
Election
Independents
Those who voted for Gore in 2000/
Men with Less Than a College
But Not for Congressional Democrats
Education
Those living in Mid-Atlantic region
Those who live in Rural Areas
Most important issue - Economy
Those Never Married
Most important issue - Crime
Conservative Independents
Women between ages 18-34
Men between the ages of 18-34
Those living in Northeast Region
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Gore's margin amongst late deciders
pushed the overall ballot to tied.
Last POS national track the weekend before the
election
Bush
45
So having lost
among the 17 of
late-deciders Bush
dropped 2 1/2 to 3
total points in the
Undecided
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last few days of the
election.
Nader
5
Gore
42
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Early Deciders vs Late Deciders
We asked all voters an open-ended question about
why they voted for the
candidate they did instead of one of the other
candidates.
We also asked voters at what point in time they
had decided which candidate
they were going to vote for the categories were
from "before September"
(50) to "Election day" (9).
We then sorted the open-ended responses as to why
they voted for a
candidate by the time-of-decision-making question
and found some
interesting correlation between the two
questions.
Early deciders for both Bush and Gore were more
likely to cite the fact that
their choice was based on the party affiliation
of their candidate.
On most topics and issues there are no vast
differences between the
responses of "late deciders" and those who made
up their minds earlier in the
candidate consideration process, but . . .
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Early Deciders vs Late Deciders
GORE "LATE DECIDERS"
based their choice on
experience. Abortion was also a vote determinate
for these
voters who moved to the Gore camp sometime during
the final
weeks of the campaign. Gore received significant
credit among
late deciders on Social Security as these voters
felt Gore would
do a better job taking care of the elderly and
protecting the
surplus.
BUSH "LATE DECIDERS"
were focused on abortion and
moral issues, including quite a few Independent
and Democrat
voters who crossed party lines. Others also
frequently
mentioned Gore's connection to Clinton, as well
as a general
desire to get a "fresh start" in the White House.
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Concern over education as a Presidential voting
issue has remained constant.
Top Issues in
Top Issues in
Top Issues in
1992 Election
1996 Election
2000 Election
42
Economy/Jobs
21
Economy/Jobs
18
Economy/Jobs
21
Fed. Deficit
15
Medicare
15
Education
20
Health Care
12
Fed. Deficit
14
Social Security
15
Family Values
14
Taxes
12
Education
14
Taxes
13
Education
11
Taxes
12
World Affairs
12
Abortion
7
Crime/Drugs
8
Health Care
8
Foreign Policy
7
Medicare/Rx Drugs
4
Foreign Policy
5
Environment
16
But, George W. scored a coup by out performing
his father
and Bob Dole among education voters.
Presidential Preference by "Education Voters"
-35
-62
-8
78
60
52
44
25
16
16
4
3
Election 1992
Election 1996
Election 2000
Bush
Gore
Nader
Bush
Clinton
Perot
Dole
Clinton
Perot
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And clearly the Gore campaign
finally
took
advantage of very positive right direction
numbers.
November 2000
June 2000
37
-39
31
-15
69
52
59
51
36
30
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Right Direction
Wrong Track
Right Direction
Wrong Track
(49)
(40)
(52)
(39)
Bush
Gore
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And this election was one of the most
sharply divided by ideology in history.
Presidential Ballot by Ideology
50
-22
-65
76
67
49
31
17
11
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
(41)
(37)
(19)
Bush
Gore
HIAA post-elect conducted November 7, 2000
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II.
What else does the
2000 presidential election tell us
about what has changed about
the electorate?
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The number of people who strongly identify
themselves with the NRA has risen since 1998.
Who Own Guns by
Who Own Guns by
Rating Support of
Strong Partisanship
Geography
the NRA
65
53
43
41
38
36
29
29
25
Strong
Strong
1-3
8-10
Urban
Suburban
Rural
GOP
Dem
(25)
(54)
(21)
1998
2000
(17)
(17)
who own guns
On a scale from 1 to 10, where "10" represents a
description that is
perfect for you and "1" a description that is
totally wrong for you.
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By Religiousity...
Presidential Preference by "Attend Religious
Services"
63
61
57
54
51
46
42
40
36
32
Never
Seldom
Monthly
Weekly
More than weekly
(14)
(28)
(14)
(28)
(14)
Bush
Gore
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A cautionary note for
Republicans as we go forward
Presidential Ballot Among Selected Key Subgroups

Net
Bush
Gore

Difference
Women College
31
56
-25
(18 of respondents)
Moderates
32
52
-20
(42 of respondents)
Working Women
36
53
-17
(30 of respondents)
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III.
The 2000
Gubernatorial
Elections
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Looking at the Governors' races...
Education clearly continues to be the number
ONE state issue and the number ONE issue in
deciding how people vote for Governor.
Evidence suggests the gains Republicans made
in 1998 have eroded and once again each
Republican Governor will need to re-establish
their education agenda.
Looking to 2001 and 2002, the "next generation"
governor races are not yet clearly formed in
voters minds as 36 are unable to make a vote
decision for Republican or Democrat for
Governor in the next election.
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IV.
Tracking recall of the key
issues in Congressional
campaigns.
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The issue of education dominates political
advertisements
In the last two or three weeks, do you remember
seeing, reading or hearing any of the candidates
running just for
the United States Congress or Senate talk about
OR sponsor any campaign commercials on the topic
of...
Requiring that doctors make medical decisions
54
Comprehensive reform of today's health care
54
system
Fighting crime and illegal drugs
49
Improving the economy
48
Protecting the environment
48
Reforming HMOs by passing patient's bill of
rights
48
Keeping the federal budget balanced
43
America's handling of Israel and the Middle
Heard
31
East
A Lot or Some
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V.
The Prescription Drug
Issue
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In the exit polls, when voters were asked what
issue mattered
most among seven key issues, the prescription
drug issue was
the LAST issue selected and similarly, when asked
about what
should be the next president's first priority,
once again,
prescription drugs is the LEAST selected item.
Most Important
Top Priority for the
Issue in This Election

Next President

Economy/Jobs
16
Improve Education
30
Education
15
Cut Taxes
26
Social Security
14
Social Security
23
Taxes
14
Curb Rx Prices
11
World Affairs
12
Health Care
8
Medicare/Rx
7
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VI.
Looking Forward
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What to look for in the coming
weeks/months . . .
Today
seven out of ten Americans tell us
either

Bush or Gore would be accepted as
"legitimate" as president.
Today
if Bush wins, I believe people
overestimate
how permanent the bad
feelings may be
except
among the hardest
core Democrat partisans.
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What to look for in the coming
weeks/months . . .
A fractured Congress too scared not to get along

A renewed focus on health care, prescription
drugs, "fixing" Social Security and GOP
tax cuts like the marriage penalty and death tax.
Two embittered and embattled parties
already getting geared up for 2002.
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What to look for in the coming
weeks/months . . .
Once again, there will be tremendous pressure
to implement desired education and HMO
reforms and prescription drug programs. It

would be bad if Washington ends up paralyzed and
unable to act.
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