Traps in the Decision Making Process Thinking Styles

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Traps in the Decision Making ProcessThin
king Styles

• Recognizing and Countering Heuristic Traps
• Harold V. Langlois

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Examining Flawed Decision Making

• Understanding thought processes
• Exploring barriers blocking translation of
  thoughts to effective behavior
• Recognizing unconscious routines for coping with
  complexity (Heuristics)
• Balancing the perspectives of past, present and
  future behaviors

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The Framing Trap - Review

• Creating an argument that is self-fulfilling or
  guarantees a desired outcomecan block
  development of alternatives
• Strategy Reframing the problem
• Considering other outcomes
• Evaluating different framing options

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Anchoring Trap

• Disproportionate weight to initial information
• Estimates of risk or benefit
• Suitability of a specific option
• Strategy Uncover these predispositions
• Articulate goals and expectations
• Unfreeze old connects that block reasessment
• Use past connections to enhance networking
• Recognize differences between past conditions and
  present realities
• Be aware of ones discomfort with change

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The Status Quo Trap

• Bias toward perpetuating the here and now
• Protective attitude about present assumptions
• Identify status quo
• Determine if defensiveness is based on a lack of
  knowledge, or an emotional commitment (e.g.,
  originally my idea)
• Fear of the unknown if change occurs

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The Status Quo Trap (continued)

• Mindsets may mirror assumptions about ones life
  or success
• Boundaries may be blurred
• Organizational assumptions may be linked to
  personal disappointments
• Changes in the workplace represent turbulence,
  and may result in anxiety

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The Status Quo Trap (continued)

• Over-representation of the benefits of current
  organizational direction
• Circular reasoning (I know what I have I dont
  know what I might have had)
• Reinforcement for maintaining the status quo
  (dont rock the boat)

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Navigating Around the Status Quo

• Help others to identify their reasoning
• Determine where they are anchored
• Talk about discomfort with change
• Changing direction can be incremental
• Help others to focus on options with cost/benefit
  implications
• Use the what if approach

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Navigating Around the Status Quo(continued)

• Accept incremental change in direction
• Focus on small steps (today is the beginning of
  the future)
• Dont focus on too many alternatives
• Emphasize team members taking control of his/her
  responsibilities

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The Sunk Cost Trap

• Making choices that validate past decisions
• Prior choices may have been costly, and may have
  required a large effort to fix a problem
• Embarrassment about having failed in a past
  strategic intervention
• Need to protect your honor or dignity
• May have involved a career setback

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Avoiding the Sunk Cost Trap

• Seek feedback from others not involved in past
  decision
• Provides a new perspective
• May also result in new contacts/outreach
• Assess needs of other stakeholders
• How these needs affect current options
• Identifying possible conflicts

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Avoiding the Sunk Cost Trap(continued)

• Clarify why past mistakes are distressing
• May affect self-esteem
• Decision may have matched realities of a past
  time, but no longer be appropriate
• Extenuating circumstances may have changed

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Avoiding the Sunk Cost Trap(continued)

• Stress importance of personal growth
• Avoids creating a climate of failure-fearing
• Meets need for a well-constructed personal and
  professional plan
• Helps to align stakeholders on the same page

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The Confirming Evidence Trap

• Looking for evidence and confirmation from those
  who have a similar perspective or a vested
  interest
• Overweighting supportive information, while
  avoiding the search for conflicting data

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Avoiding the Confirming Evidence Trap

• Assist others in sorting evidence
• List people who benefit from the favored approach
• List those who might benefit from another
  scenario
• Collaborate on developing alternative scenarios

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Avoiding the Confirming Evidence Trap (continued)

• Emphasize need to identify specific motives of
  team member and other stakeholders
• Focus on meeting individual and team goals (not
  mutually exclusive)

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Estimating Forecasting Traps

• Needing to make estimates in the face of
  uncertainty
• Overconfidence (rose-colored glasses)
• Understanding the difficulties
• Optimism may lead to quick fixes, or assuming you
  are smarter than everyone else

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Estimating Forecasting Traps(continued)

• Prudence (stakes are too high and we need to duck
  and cover)
• Risk probabilities may be exaggerated
• May act too conservatively without an effective
  action plan
• Recallability (base predictions on what we think
  we remember)
• Likely to shade the data in our favor
• Usually dont remember too well

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Avoiding Estimating Forecasting Traps

• Disciplined approach to making forecasts or
  judging probabilities
• Look at up side down side for inconsistencies
• Avoid regret as much as possible
• Dont overpromise benefits
• Have client challenge his/her estimates
• Try to minimize distortions in memory

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Managing Heuristics

• Greater vulnerability to heuristic traps at times
  of discontinuous change
• Recognize heuristic traps and develop countering
  strategies
• Organizational learning involves individual
  efforts in taking responsibility for personal
  mindsets and blocking behaviors
• Leading change initiatives requires strong
  commitment to examining ones own mindsets and
  thinking style

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Thinking Styles

• Synthesist - Challenge accepted views
• Idealist - Defend the value system
• Pragmatist - Get it done
• Analyst - Study the details
• Realist - Organize and then take action

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Thinking Style Summary for Class
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Summary

• Thinking style analysis helps one to better
  understand what underlies how you approach
  information
• Understanding heuristics helps one to avoid
  entrapment by unconscious thought routines
• Still to comeUtilizing these skills within
  organizational settings for effective coaching