Introduction to the ABX and CMBX Indices

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Introduction to the ABX and CMBX Indices

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Title: Introduction to the ABX and CMBX Indices


1
Introduction to the ABX and CMBX Indices
November 2006
2
Overview of Structured Product SyntheticsStructur
ed Product Single Name CDS Sample Terms
  • Underlying
  • Designated specific reference obligations along
    with the initial face amount
  • Payments
  • Fixed payments (paid by protection buyer) CDS
    premium, Act/360 basis, paid monthly / quarterly
  • Floating payments (paid by protection seller)
    Upon the occurrence of a credit event, the
    applicable settlement amount
  • Additional fixed payments (paid by protection
    buyer) Upon the occurrence of a reimbursement of
    any prior floating payments, the applicable
    reimbursement amount

Please see the draft transaction Confirmation for
full details of trade mechanics. All materials
contained herein are for discussion purposes only
and will be superseded by full legal
documentation in the event the parties decide to
enter into any transaction
3
Overview of Structured Product SyntheticsStructur
ed Product Single Name CDS Sample Terms (cont)
  • Notional Balance
  • Notional balance is adjusted as follows
  • Reduced by amortizations on the reference
    obligations
  • Reduced by writedown amounts and principal
    shortfalls
  • Reduced by physical settlement
  • Increased by writedown reimbursements
  • Credit Events Settlement Amount
  • Failure to pay principal Percent of class
    principal not paid x notional
  • Writedown Percent of class written down x
    notional
  • Downgrade to CCC / Caa3 Physical settlement only
  • Optional physical settlement after any credit
    event
  • The PAUG includes a provision for giving an
    option to the protection buyer to terminate the
    contract in part or in whole by delivering the
    reference obligation. This feature, called the
    "Physical Settlement Option," is triggered by any
    credit event

Please see the draft transaction Confirmation for
full details of trade mechanics. All materials
contained herein are for discussion purposes only
and will be superseded by full legal
documentation in the event the parties decide to
enter into any transaction
4
The ABX.HE and CMBX IndicesHighlights
  • ABX.HE references 20 HEL ABS obligations and CMBX
    references 25 CMBS obligations
  • The Indices comprise subindices
  • AAA, AA, A, BBB and BBB- for ABX
  • AAA, AA, A, BBB, BBB-, and BB for CMBX (BB was
    not included on the first series of CMBX)
  • Each subindex, in turn, includes 20 Subprime Home
    Equity bonds or 25 CMBS securities
  • The reference obligations in each subindex
    comprise bonds at different rating levels
  • Bonds in each subindex are selected from the same
    set of reference entities
  • Every six months, the Indices will be
    reconstituted using the same criteria
  • On January 19, 2006, the ABX.HE 06-1 began
    trading
  • We estimate that more than 150bn of trade
    notional has been executed on the ABX.HE indices
  • Goldman has executed more than 80bn of trade
    notional
  • On March 7, 2006, the CMBX Index began trading

5
The ABX.HE and CMBX IndicesConstruction Criteria
Portfolio Selection Criteria
Source Goldman Sachs, ABX.HE Launch
Presentation ABX Indices The New US Asset
Backed Credit Default Swap Benchmark Indices (CDS
IndexCo) CMBX Launch Presentation CMBX Indices
The New US Commercial Mortgage Backed Credit
Default Swap Benchmark Indices (CDS IndexCo)
6
Trading the ABX.HE IndicesIndicative terms and
conditions
  • Indices
  • Notional Amortization mirrors that of the
    underlying bonds
  • Fixed Rate Established on roll date premium.
    Subsequent trades require upfront exchange of
    premium/discount
  • Floating Rate Payments Interest Shortfall,
    Writedown, Principal Shortfall
  • Additional Fixed Payments Interest Shortfall
    Reimbursement, Writedown Reimbursement, Principal
    Shortfall Reimbursement
  • Quotations Dealers will quote price and
    exchange upfront amounts based on the difference
    between that price and par
  • Floating Amount Events Failure to Pay
    Principal, Interest Shortfall and Writedown
  • Physical Settlement Not Applicable

Note All financial information and other data
shown are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to represent an actual
transaction Source Goldman Sachs, ABX.HE Launch
Presentation ABX Indices The New US Asset
Backed Credit Default Swap Benchmark Indices (CDS
IndexCo)
7
Trading the CMBX IndicesIndicative terms and
conditions
  • Indices
  • Notional Amortization mirrors that of the
    underlying bonds
  • Fixed Rate Established one day prior to roll
    date. Payable monthly based on average balance.
  • Floating Rate Payments Interest Shortfall,
    Writedown, Principal Shortfall
  • Additional Fixed Payments Interest Shortfall
    Reimbursement, Writedown Reimbursement, Principal
    Shortfall Reimbursement
  • Quotations Dealers will quote spread and
    compute price from the MarkIt calculator
  • Credit Events Principal Shortfall and Write-Down
  • Physical Settlement Not Applicable
  • Accruals Accrues 25th to 25th with no following
    convention payments made on the 25th on an
    Actual/360 basis

Note All financial information and other data
shown are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to represent an actual
transaction Source Goldman Sachs, CMBX Launch
Presentation CMBX Indices The New US Commercial
Mortgage Backed Credit Default Swap Benchmark
Indices (CDS IndexCo)
8
Index vs. Single Name TradesComparing a few
features
9
Key Features of Trade Mechanics1Important
Definitions, Valuable Dates and Margin
Requirements
Margin Requirements
Important Definitions
  • Trade Date the day the trader says done and
    trade is executed
  • Effective date of trade same as trade date
    when protection begins
  • Effective date of index (i.e. annex date) date
    the annex was initially published or revised
  • Settlement date date on which the premium is
    exchanged
  • Premium fee exchanged when trade is initially
    done comprising the market value of the trade and
    accrued interest since last payment date
  • Accrued interest (in terms of premium) interest
    accumulated from and including last payment date
    but excluding effective date of trade
  • Factor - A change in the outstanding principal
    issuance i.e. of principal unpaid on the
    reference obligation
  • Initial Fixed rate Payer Calculation period
    from and including last payment date but
    excluding the next payment date of the bond

Valuable Dates
  • Trade date T
  • Effective date of trade T 0
  • MarkIt Publish date - 24 hours or less after
    trustee report is published (25th)

1 Source Goldman Sachs
Note All financial information and other data
shown are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to represent an actual transaction
10
Trade Ideas Using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA Indices
  • Bearish view on housing/consumers/commercial real
    estate
  • Customers with this view have been selling the
    Index (shorting credit buying protection) at the
    A, BBB, and BBB- level
  • Credit steepener (flattener) trades
  • View is that credit curve will steepen (flatten)
    with adverse (favorable) developments
  • Fund shorts by selling protection higher (lower)
    in the capital structure
  • Most common BBB- vs BBB, BBB vs AAA
  • Transition management
  • Investors with cash to invest (or risk to add)
    have used the index to gain exposure to home
    equity or CMBS spreads while they ramp up
    single-name or cash positions
  • Investors can scale out of the index as they put
    new cash to work (or add risk)
  • Basis trades
  • Trading single names or cash versus the Index
  • Can structure positive carry trades or express
    leveraged views on particular names
  • Index arbitrage

Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
11
Trade Ideas using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA
IndicesContinued
  • Tranching
  • Significant interest/inquiry in tranches
  • Standardization, pricing, and liquidity should
    take time to evolve
  • Options
  • Hedgers have expressed interest in options
    strategies to mitigate risk
  • Similar in construction to options on CDX
    currently traded

Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
12
Trade Ideas using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA
IndicesContinued
  • Hedging mortgage credit risk
  • Originators have sold the index across the
    capital structure to hedge their origination
    pipelines
  • Originators or investors with positions in
    mortgage residuals have sold the BBB and BBB-
    Indexes to mitigate risk
  • Some originators view BBB/BBB- protection as
    cheap to mortgage insurance
  • ABX/CMBX versus corporate credit
  • Hedge funds have traded BBB/BBB- vs correlated
    corporate credit such as consumer portion of CDX,
    HVOL, or REITs or single name CDS such as
    homebuilders

ABX.HE BBB- vs OTR CDX.HVOL1
ABX.HE BBB- vs OTR CDX.IG1
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
13
Trade Themes using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA
IndicesContinued
  • ABX/CMBX vs Equities
  • Equity accounts and macro hedge funds have used
    the Index (primarily BBB and BBB-) to hedge the
    residual risk in originator stocks
  • Short is funded by high dividend yield
  • ABX and certain housing related equity names have
    become more correlated

ABX.HE BBB- vs New Century Financial1
ABX.HE BBB- vs SP 5001
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
14
Evolution of Spreads for the ABX.HE OTR
Subindices1From 01/19/2006 to 10/25/2006
ABX.HE BBB and BBB-
ABX.HE AAA and AA
ABX.HE A
ABX.HE Spread Stats
1 Source Goldman Sachs. Indicative as of COB
25Oct06.
15
Evolution of Spreads for the CMBX
Subindices1From 03/06/2006 to 10/25/2006
CMBX AAA and AA
CMBX BBB and BBB-
CMBX A
CMBX Spread Stats
1 Source Goldman Sachs. Indicative as of COB
25Oct06.
16
Update on the ABX.HE Bases1As of 10/23/06
Indicative Basis Report1
1 Source Goldman Sachs
Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
17
ABX.HE BBB Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative ABX.HE BBB Historical Basis1
Average Basis 17
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
18
ABX.HE BBB- Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative ABX.HE BBB- Historical Basis1
Average Basis 25
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
19
Update on the CMBX Bases1As of 10/25/06
Indicative Basis Report1
1 Source Goldman Sachs
Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
20
CMBX BBB Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative CMBX BBB Historical Basis1
Average Basis 1.9
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
21
CMBX BBB- Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative CMBX BBB- Historical Basis1
Average Basis 2.5
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
22
Important Disclaimers Please Read
  • All materials, including proposed terms and
    conditions, are indicative and for discussion
    purposes only. The information contained herein
    has been prepared solely for informational
    purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell or a
    solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any swap,
    security or instrument or to participate in any
    trading strategy. If any offer is made, it shall
    be made pursuant to (in the case of swaps) a
    final swap confirmation, or (in the case of
    securities) a final offering circular (the
    Offering Circular) prepared by or on behalf of
    the issuer of any such securities (the Issuer),
    both of which would contain material information
    not contained herein and which shall supersede,
    amend and supplement this information in its
    entirety. Any offer of swaps or securities which
    is eventually made may contain terms which are
    substantially different from the terms described
    herein. Goldman Sachs Co. does not provide
    accounting, tax or legal advice, however, you
    should be aware that any proposed indicative
    transaction could have accounting, tax, legal or
    other implications that should be discussed with
    your advisors and/or counsel. Any decision to
    enter into the swaps or invest in the securities
    described herein should be made after reviewing
    such final swap confirmation or final Offering
    Circular, conducting such investigations as the
    swap counterparty or investor deems necessary or
    appropriate and consulting the swap
    counterparty's or investors own legal,
    accounting, tax and other advisors in order to
    make an independent determination of the
    suitability and consequences of participating in
    the swaps or securities. Finalized terms and
    conditions are subject to discussion and
    negotiation and will be evidenced by a formal
    agreement. Opinions expressed are our present
    opinions only and are subject to change without
    further notice.
  • The information contained herein is confidential
    information. By accepting this information, the
    recipient agrees that it will and it will cause
    its directors, partners, officers, employees and
    representatives to, use the information only to
    evaluate its potential interest in the swaps and
    securities described herein and for no other
    purpose and will not divulge any such information
    to any other party except that Goldman Sachs (as
    used herein, such term shall include Goldman,
    Sachs Co. and each of its affiliates) agrees
    that, subject to applicable law, any and all
    aspects of this material that are necessary to
    support any U.S. federal income tax benefits may
    be disclosed by a recipient of this information.
    Any reproduction of this information, in whole or
    in part, is prohibited.
  • Goldman, Sachs Co., its respective affiliates
    and others associated with them may have
    positions in, and may effect transactions in,
    securities and instruments of issuers mentioned
    herein and may also perform or seek to perform
    investment banking services for the issuers of
    such securities and such instruments.

23
Important Disclaimers Please Read
  • Neither Goldman, Sachs Co. nor any of its
    affiliates nor the issuer of any securities (or
    any of their affiliates) make any representation
    or warranty, express or implied, as to the
    accuracy or completeness of the information
    contained herein and nothing contained herein
    shall be relied upon as a promise or
    representation whether as to the past or future
    performance. This information includes estimates
    and projections and involves significant elements
    of subjective judgment and analysis. No
    representations are made as to the accuracy of
    such estimates or projections or that all
    assumptions relating to such estimates or
    projections have been considered or stated or
    that such projections will be realized. The
    information contained herein does not purport to
    contain all of the information that may be
    required to evaluate such swaps or securities and
    any recipient is encouraged to read (in the case
    of the swaps) the final swap confirmation or (in
    the case of securities) the Offering Circular and
    should conduct its own independent analysis of
    the date referred to herein. Goldman, Sachs
    Co. and its affiliates disclaim any and all
    liability relating to this information,
    including, without limitation, any express or
    implied representation or warranty for statements
    contained in and omissions from this information.
    Neither Goldman, Sachs Co. nor any of its
    affiliates nor the issuer of any securities will
    update or otherwise revise the information
    contained herein except by means of the final
    swap confirmation or Offering Circular.
  • Projections, Pro Forma Information and Forward
    Looking Statements. These materials contain
    statements that are not purely historical in
    nature, but are forward-looking statements.
    These include, among other things, projections,
    forecasts, estimates of income, yield or return,
    future performance targets, sample or pro forma
    portfolio structures or portfolio composition,
    scenario analyses, specific investment strategies
    and proposed or pro forma levels of
    diversification or sector investment. These
    forward-looking statements are based upon certain
    assumptions. Actual events are difficult to
    predict and are beyond the control of the Issuer,
    Goldman, Sachs Co. or its affiliates. Actual
    events may differ from those assumed. All
    forward-looking statements included are based on
    information available on the date hereof and
    neither Goldman, Sachs Co. nor any of its
    affiliates assume any duty to update any
    forward-looking statement. Some important
    factors which could cause actual results to
    differ materially for those in any
    forward-looking statements include, among other
    things, the actual composition of the portfolio
    (consisting of credit default swaps), any
    defaults or Credit Events in the portfolio, the
    timing of any defaults or Credit Events, the
    timing and amount of any subsequent recoveries,
    changes in interest rates, and any weakening of
    the specific credits included in the portfolio.
    Other risk factors are also described (in the
    case of the swaps) in the final swap confirmation
    or (in the case of securities) in the Offering
    Circular. Accordingly, there can be no assurance
    that estimated returns or projections will be
    realized, that forward-looking statements will
    materialize or that actual returns or results
    will not be materially lower than those
    presented.

24
Risk Factors - Please Read
  • Entering into a credit derivative transaction (a
    Credit Default Swap) referencing an ABX Index
    involves certain risks. Prospective
    counterparties should carefully read the final
    swap confirmation and consider the following risk
    factors prior to entering into a Credit Default
    Swap. Any decision to enter into a Credit
    Default Swap should be made after conducting such
    investigations as a counterparty deems necessary
    and consulting the counterpartys own legal,
    accounting and tax advisors in order to make an
    independent determination of the suitability and
    consequences of entering into a Credit Default
    Swap. The following is not intended to be an
    exhaustive list of the risks involved in entering
    into a Credit Default Swap.
  • Limited Liquidity and Restrictions on Transfer.
    The market for Credit Default Swaps on the ABX
    Indices is new and there is currently very
    limited liquidity for the Credit Default Swaps.
    There can be no assurance that liquidity will
    exist in the Credit Default Swaps at any time in
    the future. The Credit Default Swaps represent
    bilateral contracts that cannot be transferred or
    terminated without the consent of the other
    party, which consent may be withheld or delayed
    for a number of reasons. Goldman Sachs may, but
    is not obligated to, unwind or terminate a Credit
    Default Swap under terms acceptable to it in its
    sole discretion. Any counterparty under a Credit
    Default Swap must be prepared to hold its
    position in the Credit Default Swap for an
    indefinite period of time or until it terminates
    in accordance with its terms.
  • No Claims on the Reference Entities.
    Participation in a Credit Default Swap does not
    constitute a purchase or other acquisition or
    assignment of any interest in any obligation of
    any Reference Entity. The parties to the Credit
    Default Swap will not have any recourse against
    any Reference Entity and will have no rights to
    enforce directly compliance by any Reference
    Entity with the terms of its obligations that are
    referred to in the Credit Default Swap, no rights
    of set-off against any Reference Entity, no
    voting rights with respect to any Reference
    Entity and no security interest in any Reference
    Obligation.
  • Limited Provision of Information about Reference
    Obligations/Reference Entities. No information
    will be provided to prospective counterparties
    with respect to any Reference Obligation or
    Reference Entity. Investors should conduct their
    own investigation and analysis with respect to
    the creditworthiness of each Reference Obligation
    and the likelihood of the occurrence of an event
    triggering payments under the Credit Default Swap
    occurring with respect to each Reference Entity
    and Reference Obligation.

25
Risk Factors - Please Read
  • Mark to Market Risk/Credit Exposure. Parties to
    a Credit Default Swap are exposed to considerable
    mark-to-market volatility following changes in,
    among other things, the spreads of the Reference
    Obligations in any ABX Index and ratings
    migration on the Reference Obligations contained
    in any ABX Index. These will be reflected in any
    mark-to-market valuations in respect of a Credit
    Default Swap. If any Floating Amount Event occurs
    in respect of a Reference Obligation, sellers of
    protection will be required to make significant
    payments (which potentially could equal the full
    notional amount of the Credit Default Swap).
  • Concentration Risk/Structural Risk The
    concentration of the Reference Obligations in the
    Index in one particular type of structured
    product security subjects the Credit Defaults
    Swap to a greater degree of risk with respect to
    defaults within such type of structured product
    security. Prospective counterparties should
    review the list of Reference Obligations and
    conduct their own investigation and analysis with
    regard to each Reference Obligation, including
    the credit, market, interest rate, structural and
    legal risks associated with each Reference
    Obligation.
  • Evolving Nature of the Credit Default Swap
    Market. Credit default swaps (including credit
    default swaps on asset backed securities) are
    relatively new instruments in the market. While
    ISDA has published and supplemented the ISDA
    Credit Derivatives Definitions in order to
    facilitate transactions and promote uniformity in
    the credit default swap market, the credit
    default swap market is expected to change and the
    ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions and terms
    applied to credit derivatives are subject to
    interpretation and further evolution. There can
    be no assurance that changes to the ISDA Credit
    Derivatives Definitions and other terms
    applicable to credit derivatives generally will
    be predictable. Amendments or supplements to the
    ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions that are
    published by ISDA will only apply to the Credit
    Default Swap if the Credit Default Swap is
    amended. Therefore, in addition to the credit
    risk of Reference Obligations, Reference Entities
    and the credit risk of their counterparty,
    persons who enter into Credit Default Swaps are
    also subject to the risk that the ISDA Credit
    Derivatives Definitions could be interpreted in a
    manner that would be adverse to them or that the
    credit derivatives market generally may evolve in
    a manner that would be adverse to them.
  • Credit Ratings. Credit ratings represent the
    rating agencies opinions regarding credit
    quality and are not a guarantee of quality.
    Rating agencies attempt to evaluate the safety of
    principal and/or interest payments and do not
    evaluate the risks of fluctuations in market
    value. Accordingly, credit ratings may not fully
    reflect the true risks underlying any Credit
    Default Swap. Also, rating agencies may fail to
    make timely changes in credit ratings in response
    to subsequent events, so that an issuers current
    financial condition may be better or worse than a
    rating indicates.

26
Risk Factors - Please Read
  • Conflicts of Interest No Reliance. Goldman Sachs
    does not provide investment, accounting, tax or
    legal advice in respect of the Credit Default
    Swaps and shall not have a fiduciary relationship
    with any counterparty to a Credit Default Swap.
    In particular, Goldman Sachs does not make any
    representations as to (a) the suitability of any
    Credit Default Swap, (b) the appropriate
    accounting treatment or possible tax consequences
    of any Credit Default Swap or (c) the future
    performance of any Credit Default Swap either in
    absolute terms or relative to competing
    investments. Prospective counterparties should
    obtain their own independent accounting, tax and
    legal advice and should consult their own
    professional investment advisor to ascertain the
    suitability of any Credit Default Swap, including
    such independent investigation and analysis
    regarding the risks, security arrangements and
    cash-flows associated with any Credit Default
    Swap as they deem appropriate to evaluate the
    merits and risks of any Credit Default Swap
  • Goldman Sachs may, by virtue of its status as an
    underwriter, advisor or otherwise, possess or
    have access to non-publicly available information
    relating to the Reference Entities and/or the
    obligations of the Reference Entities (including
    the Reference Obligations) and has not
    undertaken, and does not intend, to disclose,
    such status or non-public information in
    connection with any Credit Default Swap.
    Accordingly, this presentation may not contain
    all information that would be material to the
    evaluation of the merits and risks of entering
    into any Credit Default Swap.
  • Goldman Sachs does not make any representation,
    recommendation or warranty, express or implied,
    regarding the accuracy, adequacy, reasonableness
    or completeness of the information contained
    herein or in any further information, notice or
    other document which may at any time be supplied
    in connection with a Credit Default Swap and
    accepts no responsibility or liability therefore.
    Goldman Sachs may from time be an active
    participant on both sides of the market and have
    long or short positions in, or buy and sell,
    securities, commodities, futures, options or
    other derivatives identical or related to those
    mentioned herein. Goldman Sachs may have
    potential conflicts of interest due to present or
    future relationships between Goldman Sachs and
    any Reference Entity or any obligation of any
    Reference Entity
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