Title: Introduction to the ABX and CMBX Indices
1Introduction to the ABX and CMBX Indices
November 2006
2Overview of Structured Product SyntheticsStructur
ed Product Single Name CDS Sample Terms
- Underlying
- Designated specific reference obligations along
with the initial face amount - Payments
- Fixed payments (paid by protection buyer) CDS
premium, Act/360 basis, paid monthly / quarterly - Floating payments (paid by protection seller)
Upon the occurrence of a credit event, the
applicable settlement amount - Additional fixed payments (paid by protection
buyer) Upon the occurrence of a reimbursement of
any prior floating payments, the applicable
reimbursement amount
Please see the draft transaction Confirmation for
full details of trade mechanics. All materials
contained herein are for discussion purposes only
and will be superseded by full legal
documentation in the event the parties decide to
enter into any transaction
3Overview of Structured Product SyntheticsStructur
ed Product Single Name CDS Sample Terms (cont)
- Notional Balance
- Notional balance is adjusted as follows
- Reduced by amortizations on the reference
obligations - Reduced by writedown amounts and principal
shortfalls - Reduced by physical settlement
- Increased by writedown reimbursements
- Credit Events Settlement Amount
- Failure to pay principal Percent of class
principal not paid x notional - Writedown Percent of class written down x
notional - Downgrade to CCC / Caa3 Physical settlement only
- Optional physical settlement after any credit
event - The PAUG includes a provision for giving an
option to the protection buyer to terminate the
contract in part or in whole by delivering the
reference obligation. This feature, called the
"Physical Settlement Option," is triggered by any
credit event
Please see the draft transaction Confirmation for
full details of trade mechanics. All materials
contained herein are for discussion purposes only
and will be superseded by full legal
documentation in the event the parties decide to
enter into any transaction
4The ABX.HE and CMBX IndicesHighlights
- ABX.HE references 20 HEL ABS obligations and CMBX
references 25 CMBS obligations - The Indices comprise subindices
- AAA, AA, A, BBB and BBB- for ABX
- AAA, AA, A, BBB, BBB-, and BB for CMBX (BB was
not included on the first series of CMBX) - Each subindex, in turn, includes 20 Subprime Home
Equity bonds or 25 CMBS securities - The reference obligations in each subindex
comprise bonds at different rating levels - Bonds in each subindex are selected from the same
set of reference entities - Every six months, the Indices will be
reconstituted using the same criteria - On January 19, 2006, the ABX.HE 06-1 began
trading - We estimate that more than 150bn of trade
notional has been executed on the ABX.HE indices - Goldman has executed more than 80bn of trade
notional - On March 7, 2006, the CMBX Index began trading
5The ABX.HE and CMBX IndicesConstruction Criteria
Portfolio Selection Criteria
Source Goldman Sachs, ABX.HE Launch
Presentation ABX Indices The New US Asset
Backed Credit Default Swap Benchmark Indices (CDS
IndexCo) CMBX Launch Presentation CMBX Indices
The New US Commercial Mortgage Backed Credit
Default Swap Benchmark Indices (CDS IndexCo)
6Trading the ABX.HE IndicesIndicative terms and
conditions
- Indices
- Notional Amortization mirrors that of the
underlying bonds - Fixed Rate Established on roll date premium.
Subsequent trades require upfront exchange of
premium/discount - Floating Rate Payments Interest Shortfall,
Writedown, Principal Shortfall - Additional Fixed Payments Interest Shortfall
Reimbursement, Writedown Reimbursement, Principal
Shortfall Reimbursement - Quotations Dealers will quote price and
exchange upfront amounts based on the difference
between that price and par - Floating Amount Events Failure to Pay
Principal, Interest Shortfall and Writedown - Physical Settlement Not Applicable
Note All financial information and other data
shown are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to represent an actual
transaction Source Goldman Sachs, ABX.HE Launch
Presentation ABX Indices The New US Asset
Backed Credit Default Swap Benchmark Indices (CDS
IndexCo)
7Trading the CMBX IndicesIndicative terms and
conditions
- Indices
- Notional Amortization mirrors that of the
underlying bonds - Fixed Rate Established one day prior to roll
date. Payable monthly based on average balance. - Floating Rate Payments Interest Shortfall,
Writedown, Principal Shortfall - Additional Fixed Payments Interest Shortfall
Reimbursement, Writedown Reimbursement, Principal
Shortfall Reimbursement - Quotations Dealers will quote spread and
compute price from the MarkIt calculator - Credit Events Principal Shortfall and Write-Down
- Physical Settlement Not Applicable
- Accruals Accrues 25th to 25th with no following
convention payments made on the 25th on an
Actual/360 basis
Note All financial information and other data
shown are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to represent an actual
transaction Source Goldman Sachs, CMBX Launch
Presentation CMBX Indices The New US Commercial
Mortgage Backed Credit Default Swap Benchmark
Indices (CDS IndexCo)
8Index vs. Single Name TradesComparing a few
features
9Key Features of Trade Mechanics1Important
Definitions, Valuable Dates and Margin
Requirements
Margin Requirements
Important Definitions
- Trade Date the day the trader says done and
trade is executed - Effective date of trade same as trade date
when protection begins - Effective date of index (i.e. annex date) date
the annex was initially published or revised - Settlement date date on which the premium is
exchanged - Premium fee exchanged when trade is initially
done comprising the market value of the trade and
accrued interest since last payment date - Accrued interest (in terms of premium) interest
accumulated from and including last payment date
but excluding effective date of trade - Factor - A change in the outstanding principal
issuance i.e. of principal unpaid on the
reference obligation - Initial Fixed rate Payer Calculation period
from and including last payment date but
excluding the next payment date of the bond
Valuable Dates
- Trade date T
- Effective date of trade T 0
- MarkIt Publish date - 24 hours or less after
trustee report is published (25th)
1 Source Goldman Sachs
Note All financial information and other data
shown are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to represent an actual transaction
10Trade Ideas Using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA Indices
- Bearish view on housing/consumers/commercial real
estate - Customers with this view have been selling the
Index (shorting credit buying protection) at the
A, BBB, and BBB- level - Credit steepener (flattener) trades
- View is that credit curve will steepen (flatten)
with adverse (favorable) developments - Fund shorts by selling protection higher (lower)
in the capital structure - Most common BBB- vs BBB, BBB vs AAA
- Transition management
- Investors with cash to invest (or risk to add)
have used the index to gain exposure to home
equity or CMBS spreads while they ramp up
single-name or cash positions - Investors can scale out of the index as they put
new cash to work (or add risk) - Basis trades
- Trading single names or cash versus the Index
- Can structure positive carry trades or express
leveraged views on particular names - Index arbitrage
Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
11Trade Ideas using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA
IndicesContinued
- Tranching
- Significant interest/inquiry in tranches
- Standardization, pricing, and liquidity should
take time to evolve - Options
- Hedgers have expressed interest in options
strategies to mitigate risk - Similar in construction to options on CDX
currently traded
Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
12Trade Ideas using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA
IndicesContinued
- Hedging mortgage credit risk
- Originators have sold the index across the
capital structure to hedge their origination
pipelines - Originators or investors with positions in
mortgage residuals have sold the BBB and BBB-
Indexes to mitigate risk - Some originators view BBB/BBB- protection as
cheap to mortgage insurance - ABX/CMBX versus corporate credit
- Hedge funds have traded BBB/BBB- vs correlated
corporate credit such as consumer portion of CDX,
HVOL, or REITs or single name CDS such as
homebuilders
ABX.HE BBB- vs OTR CDX.HVOL1
ABX.HE BBB- vs OTR CDX.IG1
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
13Trade Themes using the ABX.HE and CMBX.NA
IndicesContinued
- ABX/CMBX vs Equities
- Equity accounts and macro hedge funds have used
the Index (primarily BBB and BBB-) to hedge the
residual risk in originator stocks - Short is funded by high dividend yield
- ABX and certain housing related equity names have
become more correlated
ABX.HE BBB- vs New Century Financial1
ABX.HE BBB- vs SP 5001
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
14Evolution of Spreads for the ABX.HE OTR
Subindices1From 01/19/2006 to 10/25/2006
ABX.HE BBB and BBB-
ABX.HE AAA and AA
ABX.HE A
ABX.HE Spread Stats
1 Source Goldman Sachs. Indicative as of COB
25Oct06.
15Evolution of Spreads for the CMBX
Subindices1From 03/06/2006 to 10/25/2006
CMBX AAA and AA
CMBX BBB and BBB-
CMBX A
CMBX Spread Stats
1 Source Goldman Sachs. Indicative as of COB
25Oct06.
16Update on the ABX.HE Bases1As of 10/23/06
Indicative Basis Report1
1 Source Goldman Sachs
Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
17ABX.HE BBB Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative ABX.HE BBB Historical Basis1
Average Basis 17
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
18ABX.HE BBB- Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative ABX.HE BBB- Historical Basis1
Average Basis 25
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
19Update on the CMBX Bases1As of 10/25/06
Indicative Basis Report1
1 Source Goldman Sachs
Note Past results are not indications of future
performance
20CMBX BBB Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative CMBX BBB Historical Basis1
Average Basis 1.9
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
21CMBX BBB- Basis1As of 10/25/06
Indicative CMBX BBB- Historical Basis1
Average Basis 2.5
1Note Past results are not indications of future
performance. Indicative as of 25Oct06.
22Important Disclaimers Please Read
- All materials, including proposed terms and
conditions, are indicative and for discussion
purposes only. The information contained herein
has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any swap,
security or instrument or to participate in any
trading strategy. If any offer is made, it shall
be made pursuant to (in the case of swaps) a
final swap confirmation, or (in the case of
securities) a final offering circular (the
Offering Circular) prepared by or on behalf of
the issuer of any such securities (the Issuer),
both of which would contain material information
not contained herein and which shall supersede,
amend and supplement this information in its
entirety. Any offer of swaps or securities which
is eventually made may contain terms which are
substantially different from the terms described
herein. Goldman Sachs Co. does not provide
accounting, tax or legal advice, however, you
should be aware that any proposed indicative
transaction could have accounting, tax, legal or
other implications that should be discussed with
your advisors and/or counsel. Any decision to
enter into the swaps or invest in the securities
described herein should be made after reviewing
such final swap confirmation or final Offering
Circular, conducting such investigations as the
swap counterparty or investor deems necessary or
appropriate and consulting the swap
counterparty's or investors own legal,
accounting, tax and other advisors in order to
make an independent determination of the
suitability and consequences of participating in
the swaps or securities. Finalized terms and
conditions are subject to discussion and
negotiation and will be evidenced by a formal
agreement. Opinions expressed are our present
opinions only and are subject to change without
further notice. - The information contained herein is confidential
information. By accepting this information, the
recipient agrees that it will and it will cause
its directors, partners, officers, employees and
representatives to, use the information only to
evaluate its potential interest in the swaps and
securities described herein and for no other
purpose and will not divulge any such information
to any other party except that Goldman Sachs (as
used herein, such term shall include Goldman,
Sachs Co. and each of its affiliates) agrees
that, subject to applicable law, any and all
aspects of this material that are necessary to
support any U.S. federal income tax benefits may
be disclosed by a recipient of this information.
Any reproduction of this information, in whole or
in part, is prohibited. - Goldman, Sachs Co., its respective affiliates
and others associated with them may have
positions in, and may effect transactions in,
securities and instruments of issuers mentioned
herein and may also perform or seek to perform
investment banking services for the issuers of
such securities and such instruments.
23Important Disclaimers Please Read
- Neither Goldman, Sachs Co. nor any of its
affiliates nor the issuer of any securities (or
any of their affiliates) make any representation
or warranty, express or implied, as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information
contained herein and nothing contained herein
shall be relied upon as a promise or
representation whether as to the past or future
performance. This information includes estimates
and projections and involves significant elements
of subjective judgment and analysis. No
representations are made as to the accuracy of
such estimates or projections or that all
assumptions relating to such estimates or
projections have been considered or stated or
that such projections will be realized. The
information contained herein does not purport to
contain all of the information that may be
required to evaluate such swaps or securities and
any recipient is encouraged to read (in the case
of the swaps) the final swap confirmation or (in
the case of securities) the Offering Circular and
should conduct its own independent analysis of
the date referred to herein. Goldman, Sachs
Co. and its affiliates disclaim any and all
liability relating to this information,
including, without limitation, any express or
implied representation or warranty for statements
contained in and omissions from this information.
Neither Goldman, Sachs Co. nor any of its
affiliates nor the issuer of any securities will
update or otherwise revise the information
contained herein except by means of the final
swap confirmation or Offering Circular. - Projections, Pro Forma Information and Forward
Looking Statements. These materials contain
statements that are not purely historical in
nature, but are forward-looking statements.
These include, among other things, projections,
forecasts, estimates of income, yield or return,
future performance targets, sample or pro forma
portfolio structures or portfolio composition,
scenario analyses, specific investment strategies
and proposed or pro forma levels of
diversification or sector investment. These
forward-looking statements are based upon certain
assumptions. Actual events are difficult to
predict and are beyond the control of the Issuer,
Goldman, Sachs Co. or its affiliates. Actual
events may differ from those assumed. All
forward-looking statements included are based on
information available on the date hereof and
neither Goldman, Sachs Co. nor any of its
affiliates assume any duty to update any
forward-looking statement. Some important
factors which could cause actual results to
differ materially for those in any
forward-looking statements include, among other
things, the actual composition of the portfolio
(consisting of credit default swaps), any
defaults or Credit Events in the portfolio, the
timing of any defaults or Credit Events, the
timing and amount of any subsequent recoveries,
changes in interest rates, and any weakening of
the specific credits included in the portfolio.
Other risk factors are also described (in the
case of the swaps) in the final swap confirmation
or (in the case of securities) in the Offering
Circular. Accordingly, there can be no assurance
that estimated returns or projections will be
realized, that forward-looking statements will
materialize or that actual returns or results
will not be materially lower than those
presented.
24Risk Factors - Please Read
- Entering into a credit derivative transaction (a
Credit Default Swap) referencing an ABX Index
involves certain risks. Prospective
counterparties should carefully read the final
swap confirmation and consider the following risk
factors prior to entering into a Credit Default
Swap. Any decision to enter into a Credit
Default Swap should be made after conducting such
investigations as a counterparty deems necessary
and consulting the counterpartys own legal,
accounting and tax advisors in order to make an
independent determination of the suitability and
consequences of entering into a Credit Default
Swap. The following is not intended to be an
exhaustive list of the risks involved in entering
into a Credit Default Swap. - Limited Liquidity and Restrictions on Transfer.
The market for Credit Default Swaps on the ABX
Indices is new and there is currently very
limited liquidity for the Credit Default Swaps.
There can be no assurance that liquidity will
exist in the Credit Default Swaps at any time in
the future. The Credit Default Swaps represent
bilateral contracts that cannot be transferred or
terminated without the consent of the other
party, which consent may be withheld or delayed
for a number of reasons. Goldman Sachs may, but
is not obligated to, unwind or terminate a Credit
Default Swap under terms acceptable to it in its
sole discretion. Any counterparty under a Credit
Default Swap must be prepared to hold its
position in the Credit Default Swap for an
indefinite period of time or until it terminates
in accordance with its terms. - No Claims on the Reference Entities.
Participation in a Credit Default Swap does not
constitute a purchase or other acquisition or
assignment of any interest in any obligation of
any Reference Entity. The parties to the Credit
Default Swap will not have any recourse against
any Reference Entity and will have no rights to
enforce directly compliance by any Reference
Entity with the terms of its obligations that are
referred to in the Credit Default Swap, no rights
of set-off against any Reference Entity, no
voting rights with respect to any Reference
Entity and no security interest in any Reference
Obligation. - Limited Provision of Information about Reference
Obligations/Reference Entities. No information
will be provided to prospective counterparties
with respect to any Reference Obligation or
Reference Entity. Investors should conduct their
own investigation and analysis with respect to
the creditworthiness of each Reference Obligation
and the likelihood of the occurrence of an event
triggering payments under the Credit Default Swap
occurring with respect to each Reference Entity
and Reference Obligation.
25Risk Factors - Please Read
- Mark to Market Risk/Credit Exposure. Parties to
a Credit Default Swap are exposed to considerable
mark-to-market volatility following changes in,
among other things, the spreads of the Reference
Obligations in any ABX Index and ratings
migration on the Reference Obligations contained
in any ABX Index. These will be reflected in any
mark-to-market valuations in respect of a Credit
Default Swap. If any Floating Amount Event occurs
in respect of a Reference Obligation, sellers of
protection will be required to make significant
payments (which potentially could equal the full
notional amount of the Credit Default Swap). - Concentration Risk/Structural Risk The
concentration of the Reference Obligations in the
Index in one particular type of structured
product security subjects the Credit Defaults
Swap to a greater degree of risk with respect to
defaults within such type of structured product
security. Prospective counterparties should
review the list of Reference Obligations and
conduct their own investigation and analysis with
regard to each Reference Obligation, including
the credit, market, interest rate, structural and
legal risks associated with each Reference
Obligation. - Evolving Nature of the Credit Default Swap
Market. Credit default swaps (including credit
default swaps on asset backed securities) are
relatively new instruments in the market. While
ISDA has published and supplemented the ISDA
Credit Derivatives Definitions in order to
facilitate transactions and promote uniformity in
the credit default swap market, the credit
default swap market is expected to change and the
ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions and terms
applied to credit derivatives are subject to
interpretation and further evolution. There can
be no assurance that changes to the ISDA Credit
Derivatives Definitions and other terms
applicable to credit derivatives generally will
be predictable. Amendments or supplements to the
ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions that are
published by ISDA will only apply to the Credit
Default Swap if the Credit Default Swap is
amended. Therefore, in addition to the credit
risk of Reference Obligations, Reference Entities
and the credit risk of their counterparty,
persons who enter into Credit Default Swaps are
also subject to the risk that the ISDA Credit
Derivatives Definitions could be interpreted in a
manner that would be adverse to them or that the
credit derivatives market generally may evolve in
a manner that would be adverse to them. - Credit Ratings. Credit ratings represent the
rating agencies opinions regarding credit
quality and are not a guarantee of quality.
Rating agencies attempt to evaluate the safety of
principal and/or interest payments and do not
evaluate the risks of fluctuations in market
value. Accordingly, credit ratings may not fully
reflect the true risks underlying any Credit
Default Swap. Also, rating agencies may fail to
make timely changes in credit ratings in response
to subsequent events, so that an issuers current
financial condition may be better or worse than a
rating indicates.
26Risk Factors - Please Read
- Conflicts of Interest No Reliance. Goldman Sachs
does not provide investment, accounting, tax or
legal advice in respect of the Credit Default
Swaps and shall not have a fiduciary relationship
with any counterparty to a Credit Default Swap.
In particular, Goldman Sachs does not make any
representations as to (a) the suitability of any
Credit Default Swap, (b) the appropriate
accounting treatment or possible tax consequences
of any Credit Default Swap or (c) the future
performance of any Credit Default Swap either in
absolute terms or relative to competing
investments. Prospective counterparties should
obtain their own independent accounting, tax and
legal advice and should consult their own
professional investment advisor to ascertain the
suitability of any Credit Default Swap, including
such independent investigation and analysis
regarding the risks, security arrangements and
cash-flows associated with any Credit Default
Swap as they deem appropriate to evaluate the
merits and risks of any Credit Default Swap - Goldman Sachs may, by virtue of its status as an
underwriter, advisor or otherwise, possess or
have access to non-publicly available information
relating to the Reference Entities and/or the
obligations of the Reference Entities (including
the Reference Obligations) and has not
undertaken, and does not intend, to disclose,
such status or non-public information in
connection with any Credit Default Swap.
Accordingly, this presentation may not contain
all information that would be material to the
evaluation of the merits and risks of entering
into any Credit Default Swap. - Goldman Sachs does not make any representation,
recommendation or warranty, express or implied,
regarding the accuracy, adequacy, reasonableness
or completeness of the information contained
herein or in any further information, notice or
other document which may at any time be supplied
in connection with a Credit Default Swap and
accepts no responsibility or liability therefore.
Goldman Sachs may from time be an active
participant on both sides of the market and have
long or short positions in, or buy and sell,
securities, commodities, futures, options or
other derivatives identical or related to those
mentioned herein. Goldman Sachs may have
potential conflicts of interest due to present or
future relationships between Goldman Sachs and
any Reference Entity or any obligation of any
Reference Entity