The Future of Modeling and Simulation in DoD: A Cynic's View

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The Future of Modeling and Simulation in DoD A
Cynic's View

• David R. Pratt, PhD
• April 5, 2001
• Monterey, CA

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The overlooked truths

• Perceptions define realties, Realities do not
  define perceptions
• The Golden Rule He who has the gold makes the
  rules
• Those who dont study history are doomed to
  repeat it

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A few really old stories

• Chess
• Louisiana Maneuvers
• The Battle of Midway
• B-29 survivability study

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Some more recent ones

• Janus
• Simulator Networking (SIMNET)
• The Joint Training Confederation (JTC)
• Modular SemiAutomated Forces (ModSAF)
• Battle Force Tactical Training (BFTT)
• Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS)
• Combined Arms Tactical Trainer (CATT)
• Synthetic Theater of War (STOW)
• High Level Architecture (HLA)

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Some of the ones underway

• Joint Simulation System (JSIMS)
• Distributed Mission Training (DMT)
• One SemiAutomated Forces (OneSAF)

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Ok, so why arent we in Nerdvana

• Documented need vs. actual need
• The acquisition process
• Length of the lifecycle
• The analytic mindset
• A stable workforce
• The technology transfer myth

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So, what does the future hold

• More of the same
• Very few large projects
• Partial requirements fulfillment
• Games / COTS

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In reality,

• MS will become pervasive as a component in other
  systems
• MS will be seen as a tool to support other
  projects
• it will not be a stand alone entity
• MS efforts will become increasingly disjoint and
  non-interoperable

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Comments? Opinions?