Title: Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of WellBeing
1Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of
Well-Being
- by
- Gary Burtless
- The Brookings Institution
- August 11, 2009
- Social Security Administration and Retirement
Research Consortium Conference
2Number (millions) and percent foreign born,
1850-2007
Source Census Bureau.
3Immigration and the income and wage distributions
- Historically high rates of immigration
- Major differences between immigrants and current
residents - Age distribution
- Skill mix
- Direct impact on distribution of well-being
- Average wage
- Average income
- Age-profile of income
4Immigration and the income and wage distributions
- Ignore feedback effects on natives wages
- Use March CPS / ASEC files to estimate trends in
wages, incomes if there were fewer immigrants - Identification of immigrants, year of entry
- YEARS 1993-2007
- POLICY CHANGE 1980
- Doubtful identification of adult children of
post-1979 immigrants
5Post-1979 immigrants in the U.S. wage
distribution, 1993-2007
Share 13.3
Share 10.6
Share 5.8
Source Tabulations of 1994, 2001, and 2008 ASEC
files.
6Average Annual Wage by Immigrant Status and Year
of Entry into the U.S., 1993 - 2007
19
26
Source Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.
7Impact of Reduced Immigration after 1979 on Level
of Economy-Wide Average U.S. Wage, 1980-2007
Source Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.
8Impact of Post-1979 Immigration on Average
Size-Adjusted Personal Income, 1993 - 2007
-2.0
-3.2
Source Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.
9Impact of selected changes in immigration policy
on median size-adjusted personal income, 1993-2007
Percent of median size-adjusted income in
indicated year
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
Source Tabulations of 1994, 2001, and 2008 ASEC
files.
10Increase in size-adjusted average income
resulting from 20 cut in immigration after 1979
IMPACT ON AGE PROFILE OF INCOME (2006)
11Increase in size-adjusted average income
resulting from reduced immigration after 1979
IMPACT of ALTERNATIVE POLICIES (2006)
50 CUT IN MEXICAN IMMIGRATION
50 CUT IN DROPOUTS
20 OVERALL CUT
12Immigration and well-being
- Reduced immigration would --
- Raise average wage of remaining population
- Produce faster growth in initial social security
benefits - Increase residents average income
- Boost the relative incomes of residents who are
members of households headed by younger adults - These conclusions ignore spillover effects of
lower immigrant labor supply on prices and on
natives employment and wages