Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of WellBeing - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of WellBeing

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Social Security Administration and Retirement Research Consortium Conference ... 50% CUT IN DROPOUTS. 50% CUT IN MEXICAN IMMIGRATION. Immigration and well-being ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of WellBeing


1
Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of
Well-Being
  • by
  • Gary Burtless
  • The Brookings Institution
  • August 11, 2009
  • Social Security Administration and Retirement
    Research Consortium Conference

2
Number (millions) and percent foreign born,
1850-2007
Source Census Bureau.
3
Immigration and the income and wage distributions
  • Historically high rates of immigration
  • Major differences between immigrants and current
    residents
  • Age distribution
  • Skill mix
  • Direct impact on distribution of well-being
  • Average wage
  • Average income
  • Age-profile of income

4
Immigration and the income and wage distributions
  • Ignore feedback effects on natives wages
  • Use March CPS / ASEC files to estimate trends in
    wages, incomes if there were fewer immigrants
  • Identification of immigrants, year of entry
  • YEARS 1993-2007
  • POLICY CHANGE 1980
  • Doubtful identification of adult children of
    post-1979 immigrants

5
Post-1979 immigrants in the U.S. wage
distribution, 1993-2007
Share 13.3
Share 10.6
Share 5.8
Source Tabulations of 1994, 2001, and 2008 ASEC
files.
6
Average Annual Wage by Immigrant Status and Year
of Entry into the U.S., 1993 - 2007
19
26
Source Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.
7
Impact of Reduced Immigration after 1979 on Level
of Economy-Wide Average U.S. Wage, 1980-2007
Source Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.
8
Impact of Post-1979 Immigration on Average
Size-Adjusted Personal Income, 1993 - 2007
-2.0
-3.2
Source Tabulations of 1994 - 2008 ASEC files.
9
Impact of selected changes in immigration policy
on median size-adjusted personal income, 1993-2007
Percent of median size-adjusted income in
indicated year
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
Source Tabulations of 1994, 2001, and 2008 ASEC
files.
10
Increase in size-adjusted average income
resulting from 20 cut in immigration after 1979
IMPACT ON AGE PROFILE OF INCOME (2006)
11
Increase in size-adjusted average income
resulting from reduced immigration after 1979
IMPACT of ALTERNATIVE POLICIES (2006)
50 CUT IN MEXICAN IMMIGRATION
50 CUT IN DROPOUTS
20 OVERALL CUT
12
Immigration and well-being
  • Reduced immigration would --
  • Raise average wage of remaining population
  • Produce faster growth in initial social security
    benefits
  • Increase residents average income
  • Boost the relative incomes of residents who are
    members of households headed by younger adults
  • These conclusions ignore spillover effects of
    lower immigrant labor supply on prices and on
    natives employment and wages
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