Prime Time

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Prime Time

• By the numbers
• Beth Walsh, PBS
• Craig Reed, TRAC

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Question 1
I'd like to see that five-year trend focusing on
GRPS and cumes with a lens on prime time and the
NPS. As we see the national numbers continuing
to trend downward, what's the thinking at PBS,
can it be reversed? Leveled? As a corollary,
are there local examples of schedules and
strategies that have done so?
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Average GRPs from Stable Markets
Prime Time minus 5
Whole Day Minus 14
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WGBH Prime Time Ratings Cumes
Note Household ratings an average of four major
sweeps each year
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Over Five Seasons
03-04 to 07-08 Prime Time Percent Change Primary
Stations
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Household Reach Trend
NTI weekly time period cumes, 8 sample weeks per
season, PBS Research, 9/2/08.
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Theories on the Incredible Shrinking Cume

• Lack of station encoding
• Fragmenting and digital readiness
• Programming decisions / declining corporate
  support

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National Panel Changes
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Question 2
Are Public Affairs programs scheduled on Friday
night because they work there or because nothing
else will? The commercial stations schedule
public affairs programming on weekend mornings,
PBS has continued to buck that trend. Is it
still the right decision or should we move on?
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Ratings Under-Perform vs. HUTs
PTV Ratings Indexed to HUTs, Oct 2008
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Weekend News AnalysisNetwork Ratings
Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 2007-08.
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Question 3
I'd like to know more about pledge erosion (or
the effects of pledging often). Does our regular
audience fall off after a pledge drive, and if
so, by how much? This could also tie in with the
CPB research that indicated people wanted a
"regular" schedule. What happens when we preempt
the "regular" schedule for whatever reason
(pledge, NPS stunt)?
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Post-Pledge Ratings Recover Quickly
Pledge
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Question 4
Why do we continue to see multi-night programming
stunts when previous CPB and PBS  audience
research indicated that it was ineffective. 
Wouldn't water-cooler talk over 5 weeks be
preferable to viewer drop off by the third
night of a 5-night stunt?  If we have research,
we aren't we using the results?
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Ongoing and Limited Series Ratings
Fall Averages Among Stable Set of Markets
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Stunts Through the AgesDrop-off from First to
Final Part
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Stunts Through the AgesPercent of Series Viewed
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Question 5
I wonder what happens post digital transition....
how will Nielsen deal with the massive
confusion, audience disruptions, etc etc?
Exactly what are Nielsen's plans for "March
'09" sweeps and beyond? Will their info be
accurate or relevant after the transition?
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Methods Changes are Prep Work

• A/P Meter
• Encoders
• Area Probability Sampling
• Reporting of Additional Stations

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Digital Readiness of U.S. TV Households

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Digital Readiness of U.S. TV Households

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Digital Readiness of U.S. TV Households

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PBS Viewing from Unready Sets
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National Measurement Post-Transition

• All stations must install a digital encoder
• Nielsen will measure one primary digital channel
  per PBS member station
• Recommendation Stations should designate one
  primary digital channel that carries the entire
  NPS schedule childrens, prime time,
  late-night, and weekends.
• Nielsen will track only those programs fed and
  encoded by PBS for the feed week
• Recommendation For complete national program
  ratings, all stations should carry the episode
  fed by PBS.

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National Measurement Post-Transition

• All programming must be carried within seven days
  of the feed from PBS to get credited toward the
  national program rating.
• Recommendation All stations should observe a
  broadcast window of seven days from the national
  feed by PBS.
• Nielsen will only incorporate the HD viewing of
  program if the entire schedule on the HD channel
  is an exact simulcast of the primary signal
• Recommendation If stations have an HD channel
  apart from their primary channel, the program
  schedule should be an exact simulcast.

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PBS NSI Rep

• Multicast channels measured?
• Contact rep now
• Calibration, new contract and prep needed
• Otherwise Nielsen is ready

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Question 6
The one thing I would like to have discussed is
how Nielsen is gathering ratings data in terms
of repeats, DVR's, VOD, etc. and how it is used
by other broadcasters/cable to sell
commercial time and how PBS or producing stations
are using it in the area of program/series
funding.
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Live 7

• July 07 analysis of five stations showed
• Whole day increase of 3
• Prime time at 4
• Most recorded
• Prime time, kids, weekend daytime
• Also Britcoms, daytime news

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TAMi (Total Audience Measure index)

• NBC adding all exposure of shows on 5 platforms
• broadcast
• Free internet streaming (definition of stream)
• Paid downloads
• Video on demand
• Mobile viewing

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TAMi

• Heros first episode
• Broadcast 11.2 million viewers
• 3.1 million streams
• 15,306 downloads
• 5,627 video on demand
• 18,306 mobile views

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National Nielsen Measures Used

• Live, Livesame day, Live3, Live7
• C3 Commercial Minute Rating that includes 3
  days of time-shifted viewing
• PBS Seven-day tracking using Live7 data set
• VOD measured by Nielsen, PBS does not subscribe

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Question 7
I'd like some data on LPM markets. How are they
faring compared to non-LPM, are rebounds
happening for stations, are there any
"successful" LPM markets and if so, what are
they doing? How do we interpret data in this
"apples" and "oranges" world (i.e., do we only
compare to other LPM markets or is it still
relevant on some level to compare to Portland)?
That kind of thing.
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03-04 LPM Markets NY, LA, CH, SF
Prime Time GRPs
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2005-06 LPM Market Alanta
Prime Time GRPs
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Question 8
When do we stop talking about ratings (what's the
magic number....below a 1 average) and really
talk only about being a "public service" media?
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Discovery 15 Channels
Discovery Channels Larger Audiences
Note 05-06 prime time ratings PTV earned 1.5
that season
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Discovery Bubble Chart
Older
TRAV
APL
Age 50
Younger
TLC
DISC
Women
Men
Women
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Context is Key

• The actual rating is not as important as the
  relative size
• What share keeps us relevant?
• Setting expectations post-transition

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End