Anik Bhaduri, Upali Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah

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Future of Agriculture and Irrigation

• Anik Bhaduri, Upali Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah

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Outline

• Analysis of past agriculture and irrigation
  scenarios.
• Factors affecting cropped area and yield.
• Projections of irrigated area and production of
  foodgrains in future.

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Achievements

• The growth of food production has surpassed the
  growth of population. --Average per capita food
  availability increased from 167kg per year during
  1980-1990 to 174 kg per year during 1990-2000.
• Increase in irrigated area-During 2000-01, 40 of
  the net cropped area was irrigated.In 1990 it was
  33.

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Concerns

• Agricultural growth rate has declined.
• Decline in the growth rate of foodgrain
  production.
• Over exploitation of groundwater.
• Imbalanced use of fertilizer

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Challenge

• Would India be able to increase the foodgrain
  production in the coming years with the
  net-cropped area remaining same?

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Policy makers think..

• Much of the additional food demand in the future
  will have to be met through productivity
  enhancement and increased cropping intensity.

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So what we need ?

• Reaching towards the goal of achieving high yield
  and high cropping intensity requires a crucial
  role of irrigation and other factors.

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Irrigated area
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Factors determining irrigationintensity

• Agricultural dependent population is increasing
  even though the proportion of agricultural
  population to total population is decreasing-we
  examine the Boserupian hypothesis which states
  that increase in population will increase the
  agricultural resource use intensification.
• Groundwater Irrigation-Over the past 15 years,
  increase in irrigated area has mainly taken place
  from groundwater source. Hypothesis-Increase in
  irrigation endowment increases reliability in
  water supply and facilitates in increasing
  irrigation intensity

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Factors determining irrigationintensity

• Mechanization-with growing urbanization and out
  migration, mechanization will play a vital role
  in achieving higher agricultural production in
  irrigated area.-Hypothesis-Irrigation reduces
  farmers risk in adopting irrigation and
  facilitates in increasing irrigation intensity.

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Net Irrigated area and source
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Decadal Growth rate
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Regression Results Irrigation intensity(IRI)
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Projections

• From the regression results, we have determined
  the marginal effect of the factors influencing
  irrigation intensity.
• The growth rates of agricultural dependent
  population per hectare of cropped area and
  proportional irrigated area are determined using
  a quadratic time trend from the last decade.
• Then using the regression results explaining the
  irrigation intensity, we project the latter.

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Projection
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Projection
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Projection
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Food production
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Regression explaining yield
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Projections

• From the regression results, we have determined
  the marginal effect of the factors influencing
  yield of foodgrains.
• The growth rates of proportional irrigated area,
  usage of fertilizer per hectare of cropped area
  and gross cropped area are determined using a
  quadratic time trend from the last decade.
• Then using the regression results explaining the
  yield, we project the latter.

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Projections
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Projection