Regional Model Studies of African Wave Disturbances

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Regional Model Studies of African Wave
Disturbances

• August 1, 2005
• Charles Sosa, SHARP Apprentice
• Leonard Druyan, Senior Research Scientist
• Matthew Fulakeza, Associate Research Scientist
• Goddard Institute for Space Studies
• 112th Street Broadway 2880
• New York, New York 10025

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Introduction

• The research done here at the Goddard Institute
  for Space Studies is priceless work that is
  highly acknowledged and valued throughout the
  world. At Goddard we not only focus our time and
  effort on space studies. Studying meteorological
  events throughout the globe such as climate
  changes and global warming are also a major part
  of the work done here at GISS.

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Introduction

• As a part of NASA SHARP, I was chosen to study
  with Drs. Len Druyan and Dr. Mathew Fulakeza,
  both of whom are research scientists at GISS.
  Dr. Druyan and Dr. Fulakeza have been researching
  African Wave Disturbances and the validation of
  Regional Models for some time so I am very
  fortunate to be working with them. Since the
  first day of the NASA SHARP I found this topic
  very interesting. I have Len and Matthew to
  thank for that.

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Introduction

• The following presentation is a look at the
  issue at hand, what I have completed thus far in
  NASA SHARP and what is to come. I hope all of
  you enjoy it. Thank you.

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Amina is so starved she cannot eat even if she
wants to. She vomits as soon as I give her food
or water, her mother said. As far as Im
concerned God did not make us all equal - I mean,
look at us all here. None of us have enough food
to survive
-BBC News, Hillary Anderson
July 20, 2005
One mothers opinions and views on life as a
result of the devastating famine and poverty
experienced frequently in regions such as Niger
and Sahel.
This case is not unique.
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Famine, Poverty and Devastation

• The worlds hungriest continent reels under a
  new famine that killed an estimated quarter of a
  million people in West Africa in the early 70s
  Food production has increased 1 a year, while
  its population has grown nearly three times as
  quickly, from an estimated 350 million to 470
  million.
• -Time Magazine
• July 1980

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Famine, Poverty and Devastation

• To this day the devastating changes in the
  African climate are crippling what is left of
  agriculture specifically in the western regions
  of the continent. Famine is sparked by the
  climate changes and also due to civil wars. An
  estimated 75 million died from famine between the
  years 1900-2004, this includes women, men,
  children and infants. The problems persist up
  until this day, developing patterns depending on
  the month of the year.
• During the period of time between July through
  August, rain is present in West Africa. Over the
  past few years, this has not been the case.
  These storms are also known as African Wave
  Disturbances. This time period is also known as
  the Rainy Season. Unfortunately in some parts of
  West Africa, the rain fall brings harmful
  diseases such as malaria that kills many.
• http//www.geocites.com/dtmcbride/hist/disaste
  rs-war.html

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Rainy Season of West Africa
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Region of StudyLatitude -20.00 º S to
35.00 º NLongitude -35.00 º W to 35.00 º E
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The Problem

• The African Centre of Meteorological Applications
  for Development, otherwise known as ACMAD, is
  stationed in Niamey, Niger. The computer on
  which they gather data sources from European
  climate centers, runs on a Windows Platform with
  128mb of random access memory (RAM). However,
  128mb of RAM is not enough to run any type of
  meteorological applications. Relying on data
  sources different from their own, which cannot
  predict how the Rainy Seasons of West Africa will
  impact how well disastrous conditions are worked
  out. By knowing this information ahead of time,
  the loss of life would be prevented by getting
  the United Nations and Red Cross involved to aid
  people suffering from such droughts.
• Len Druyan and Mathew Fulakeza are working on
  getting the RM-3 with a new computer to ACMAD.

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The Proposed Solution

• The use of a Regional Model to act as the
  backbone for the continuous re-development of
  countries in West Africa, shattered by the
  devastating loss of life and agriculture over the
  past few decades.
• What is a Regional Model?
• Regional Models such as the ones here at
  Goddard, are UNIX based computer programs that
  run best on Macintosh computers through X11 and
  Terminal. Using NCEP Reanalysis Data sets as a
  starting point, and GCM (Global Climate Model) as
  boundary conditions, they are able to simulate
  the climate at any given point in history, now
  and in the future, even taking into consideration
  global warming.

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The Proposed Solution

• Here at Goddard, there are two versions of the
  model The 15 Layer and the 28 layer. Both yield
  relatively the same data with some minor
  differences. However, they differ greatly in the
  amount of time it takes to run a simulation. For
  this research, the 28 Layer model was used.
• 15 LAYER MODEL
• - Takes almost half as long to run simulations
  and covers less atmospheric pressure layers ( 15
  layers )
• 28 LAYER MODEL
• - Takes almost twice as long to run simulations
  and covers more atmospheric pressure layers ( 28
  layers )

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Plotting RM-3 Data

• Once the selected simulation dates finish, one
  must take the data it produces (usually in a
  Binary Form) and copy it over to a program called
  Transform. This program also runs on Macintosh,
  but only in the Classic OS 9.2 Environment.
• By plotting the data, you can then take TRMM
  (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Satellite
  images of the same time period that you told the
  RM-3 to simulate. By doing so, you can see what
  the simulation model said happened, as apposed to
  what actually happened with the TRMM.

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Regional Model 28 Layer August 1 - 31, 2003,
West Africa
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TRMM Satellite Image of Accumulated Rainfall
Aug 1 - 31, 2003, West Africa
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Comparing the RM-3 vs. the TRMM
RM3 -Shows more rainfall -Less concentrated
rainfall
TRMM -Shows less rainfall (ocean) -More
concentrated rainfall
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DiffRM-3 - TRMM Error / Difference
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Conclusion

• Millions of people are suffering in West Africa
  from a number of serious problems ranging from
  civil wars, to genocide, famine, and aids. It is
  important to tackle these problems one at a time,
  one region at a time. The use of a Regional
  Model at ACMAD can benefit West Africa
  tremendously with regard to famine and droughts.
  These simulations that take about a few hours,
  possibly days to run, can determine how the next
  few months would turn out, giving West Africa the
  upper hand in the fight against Famine and
  Drought.
• I would like to thank Senior Scientist, Leonard
  Druyan and Associate Scientist, Matthew Fulakeza
  for their encouragement and support and I look
  forward to completing NASA SHARP with more RM-3
  plot validations to prove that it truly works to
  the intended audience for the reminding weeks of
  the NASA SHARP Program. Thank you.
• Special thanks to Frank Scalzo, Elizabeth
  Rudolph, Mr. Ruben Worrell, Ms. Linda Cornett,
  Dr. Barba, Mr. Otto Marte, Mr. Luis Villada, Mr.
  Victor Flores, Dr. Yiannis Andreopoulos, and
  finally Michael Shospin and Sabrina Hosein for
  all their help and tech support. Again, Thank
  you.

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References TRMM - Information and
BackgroundTRMM - Information and
Backgroundhttp//trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/ TRMM -
Daily Satellite Precipitation Data http//lake.nas
com.nasa.gov/tovas/3B42/index2_V5.shtml NCEP
Reanalysis - Wind Data http//www.cdc.noaa.gov/cdc
/data.ncep.reanalysis.html Project Science Brief
Introduction to Topic http//www.giss.nasa.gov/res
earch/briefs/druyan_06/
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