TRANSFORMATION AND ITS AFTERMATH:

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1. TRANSFORMATION AND ITS AFTERMATH THE
CHANGING SHAPE OF EUROPE PROFESSOR RICHARD
ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public
Policy University of Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/cs
pp Georgetown University 18 November 2008
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2. WHAT IS EUROPE
WHEN? ALTERNATIVE 20th CENTURY DEFINITIONS OF
EUROPE ?1900 UNDEMOCRATIC MULTI-NATIONAL
EMPIRES. E.g. Tsarist, Prussian, Habsburg,
etc. ?1919 VERSAILLES TREATY Undemocratic
nation-states. ?1948 IRON CURTAIN. Democratic
nation-states Western Europe Socialist
"democracy" Eastern Europe in Soviet
bloc Mitteleuropa disappears ?1989 BERLIN
WALL FALLS. Central Europe re-appears. More
nation-states recognised. Democracy
remains. (See R Rose, What Is Europe (Pearson,
Longman, 1996)
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3.
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4. STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS
AFTERMATH 1. The legacy of an anti-modern
party-state 2. Disruption of Polity, Economy,
Society, State 3. Bottom up responses Coping
strategies and adaptation 4. Seizing
opportunities 5. Where are we now? A stable
state is not a static state 6. Divergence
between European studies and Post-Soviet studies
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7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS
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Q. We often hear the following words. What
feelings do they evoke?
Positive
Negative
Freedom 4
Christianity 3
One and indivisible Russia 5
Glasnost (Openness) 16
Capitalism 28
Socialism 33
Perestroika 45(Restructuring)
Marxism- Leninism 37
-40 -20
0 20 40 60
80
Source Centre for the Study of Public Policy,
New Russia Barometer, 1992. Those saying
difficult to answer are not shown.
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8. OPPORTUNITY FREEDOM
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East German evaluation of policies of former
regime, Federal Republic
Social security
Freedom to say what you think
Freedom of religious worship
Source Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang
Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective,
1993.
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9. ECONOMIC RECOVERY
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Gross domestic product 1990 100
1990 real GDP
Pol
Slve
Hun
Svk
Rom
Cze
Bul
Lat
Est
Lith
Source EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007 2006
figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on
forecasts.
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11. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES
New EU
Post-Soviet
Perception of Corruption Index
Sve Est
Freedom House rating
Hun
Cze
SvkLat, LitPol
Bul
Arm
Rom
Geo
Mol
Bel
Rus
Ukr
Tur
Aze, Kaz, Taj
Uzb
Kyr
Sources perception of corruption index
Transparency International, 2007 Freedom House
rating Freedom House, 2007.
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12. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN
UNION
Transparency International Corruption Index
Old EU members
New EU members
10 Highest integrity
Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands
9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria
8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland
7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal
6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece 4.6
6.6 Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3
Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN
OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia,
Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania
1 Most corrupt
Source Transparency International, TI Corruption
Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org.
Accessed 20 May 2008.
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13. ALTERNATIVE INSTITUTIONAL DEFINITIONS OF
EUROPE Democracy essential COUNCIL OF EUROPE 41
members. Democratic governance and freedoms,
subject to occasional political pressures.
EUROPEAN UNION 27 members. Democratic
governance and single Europe market. Money
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK 12 members. Common
currency, interest rates EUROPEAN BANK FOR
RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT 61 countries
financing development from Central Europe to
Central Asia Turkey. Guns NATO (North
Atlantic Treaty Organization) 26 members ?
American-led security alliance against Soviet
Union. OSCE (Organization for Security
Cooperation in Europe). 55 members from Albania
to USA and Uzbekistan. Conflict prevention,
crisis management and post-conflict management in
Europe.
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14. NATIONAL CLUSTERS OF MEMBERSHIPS ?DEMO
CRACY, MONEY GUNS. Some old member states of
European Union, e.g. France, Germany and Benelux
countries are all in EU, ECB, and
NATO. ?DEMOCRACY MONEY (belong to EU and ECB)
but NO GUNS (Not NATO). Austria, Finland,
Ireland. ?DEMOCRACY GUNS (EU and NATO) but not
in Eurozone. Britain, Denmark, new EU member
states which may someday join Eurozone ?DEMOCRATI
C but outside EU and ECB Norway (in NATO).
Switzerland (outside NATO)
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15. GLOBAL GROUPS OVERLAPPING WITH
EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS ?OECD. Includes Japan,
Australia, Korea, USA, Mexico and Turkey. ?WORLD
TRADE ORGANIZATION. Global in scope. Alliances
very sensitive to products, e.g. grain, cheap
textiles, steel as well as geography.
?INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. A central banker
to central banks from Britain to the poorest
countries. ?WORLD BANK. Economic aid for middle
and low income countries promoting economic
growth and human development. Becoming concerned
with governance. ?UNITED NATIONS. Median member
state is partly free. No economic powers.
Security council vetoes limit peace-keeping role.