New York City:

1

• New York City
• The Rockaways
• Is New York City prepared to deal with the
  consequences of Sea-Level Rise in the Rockaways?
• Robert Tracey and Marquise McGraw
• Public Policy Analysts, Bronx H.S. of Science
• Mr. Mitch Fox, Instructor/Mentor
• Dr. Vivien Gornitz, NASA GISS, Science Advisor
• Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA GISS, Science
  Advisor

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Our Region of Study The Rockaways

• Mean elevation 5.5 feet above sea level.
  (Rosenzweig et al, 2001)
• An established residential, high-density
  community, mixed socioeconomic levels
• Rockaway Beach and Jacob Riis Park generates
  revenue annually for the city in tolls and retail
  activities along the beach.
• Served by only one major elevated subway (the A
  line and its shuttle S) and by two low-lying
  bridges, the Marine Parkway Bridge and the
  Cross-Bay Memorial Bridge.

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The Jamaica Bay Region
Source 2000 Maps a la Carte, Inc
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Sea Level Rise A Global Concern

• Mean sea level has risen globally by 25 cm (1-2.5
  mm/yr) on average over the last century. (IPCC,
  2001).
• Global warming is also occurring, causing
  temperatures to gradually increase worldwide.
• Global warming is exacerbating sea level rise,
  due to the thermal expansion of the water which
  results from temperature change. Based on IPCC
  estimates, sea level could rise by another 50 cm
  (5 mm/yr) by 2100.
• Increased sea levels will vastly affect coastal
  regions such as the Rockaways, comprising 25 of
  the United States land area but housing over 65
  of North Americas population (IPCC, 2001).
• Increased sea levels will lead to increased
  frequency of severe floods.

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Source Marquise McGraw, Bronx H.S. of
Science Data provided by Dr. V. Gornitz, NASA
GISS
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Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge

• The primary producer of damage from tropical and
  extratropical storms is the storm surge, which
  can result in severe coastal flooding (Lutgens,
  1998)
• The magnitude of the flooding depends on the
  intensity of the storm, how the storm makes
  landfall, high tide, phase of the moon, and the
  steepness of the continental shelf where the
  storm hits. (Lutgens, 1998)
• Strong winds and torrential rains only add to the
  damage of a given storm.

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Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding
Source National Hurricane Service
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Source Lutgens and Tarbuck, The Atmosphere (1998)
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Future Storm Trends

• Storm surge May increase up to 13.5 feet over
  next century as a result of sea level change.
  (Neumann, 2000)
• More 100- year floods can be expected.
  (Rosenzweig, 2001)
• NorEasters Decrease in number of strong storms,
  increase in number of weaker ones. (Rosenzweig,
  2001)
• Hurricanes Overall increase in potential
  hurricane intensity. (Rosenzweig, 2001)
• Storm Tracks Possibly more northerly storm
  tracks, much uncertainty though. (Neumann, 2000)

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Source Robert Tracey, Bronx High School of
Science Data provided by Dr. V. Gornitz, NASA
GISS
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Physical Impacts of Major Storms in the Rockaways

• Inevitable inundation to mass-transit (A line
  and LIRR) tracks run only 7 ft. above sea level.
• Marine Parkway and Cross Bay Bridge would
  experience serious flooding. Result disruption
  of commerce (e.g. food delivery), traffic
  backups.
• Rockaway Beach - increase in shoreline erosion
  from 1 meter in 2020, up to 4 meters in 2080.
• Possibility that shoreline will become
  permanently inundated (i.e. no more beach).

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Economic Impacts of Major Storms in the Rockaways

• Loss of toll and mass transit revenues.
• Severe reduction in value of real estate.
• Costs of shoreline nourishment may increase if a
  more cost-efficient sediment management plan is
  not implemented soon (Neumann, 2000).
• Loss of recreational value of the Rockaway Beach
  and Jacob Riis park, leading to lost revenues and
  a blow to the local economy.
• Loss of property inundated by rising waters.

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John F. Kennedy International Airport View from
Jamaica Bay
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
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Channel Bridge View from A Subway Line
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
15
Cross Bay Bridge View from Beach 120th Street,
the Rockaways (notice MTA New York City Transit
S line bridge in the background)
S Line Bridge
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
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Scratchitti
Howard Beach Housing at Risk View from A Subway
Line
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
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Far Rockaway Housing at Risk
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
18
Construction Yard View from Broad Channel Station
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
19
Jamaica Bay Marshlands View from A Subway Line
Source Original Photo by Marquise McGraw
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Comparison with Other Major Events

• The 1992 Noreaster devastated Manhattan Island.
  The FDR drive was flooded at 80th Street. The
  Hoboken PATH terminal was completely inundated
  (Rosenzweig, 2001).
• A 1950 Noreaster flooded the Lower East Side in
  Manhattan as well as LaGuardia Airport. (Fox M.,
  2002)
• The NYC Subway System has been flooded twice in
  the past few years due to Hurricane Floyd and
  even a strong thunderstorm. (Fox M., 2002)
• Because the Rockaways are on lower ground, the
  flooding would have even more severe
  consequences.

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Reliability of 2000 Projections

• For the time being, they are the best guess of
  future storm and sea behavior available to us.
• Further testing is necessary to validate and
  correct or update future trends.
• More research is needed into future storm
  activity, specifically storm tracks and
  intensities.
• Better models should be developed to produce
  scenarios that we can place more statistical
  confidence in.

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Possible Solutions

• New York City should implement a thorough
  evacuation procedure through Nassau County.
• Levies or dikes should be built to protect main
  roads and mass transit systems.
• Shore-side housing should be discouraged or
  banned entirely. Or, reinforcements should be
  built to strengthen existing housing at risk.
• A tunnel, if properly constructed on high enough
  ground, could connect the Rockaways with the
  mainland, eliminating the need for bridges.

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Ways to Get Government Moving

• Provide realistic and accurate estimates of
  costs. Analyze the costs and risks of modifying
  structures in preparation for flooding versus the
  costs of damage from flooding.
• Convince policymakers that insurance rates will
  rise with increased risk of flooding, which will
  be bad for the economy of the Rockaways.

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References/Contributors

• Lutgens and Tarbuck. The Atmosphere. Prentice
  Hall, 1998.
• Manning, M and Nobre, C., eds., IPCC Technical
  Summary Climate Change 2001 Impacts, Adaptation
  and Vulnerability. 2002. Available online
  
• Neumann, James et.al, Sea Level Rise and Global
  Climate Change A Review of Impacts to United
  States Coasts. 2000. Available Online
  fm
• Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Solecki, William, eds.
  Climate Change and A Global City The Potential
  Consequences of Climate Variability and Change.
  Columbia Earth Institute, 2001
• Titus, James G. et. al, Greenhouse Effect and
  Sea Level Rise The Cost of Holding Back The Sea.
  Available online g/publications/impacts/sealevel/cost_of_holding.ht
  ml