ECOWAS

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• Satellite based Communication and Earth
  Observation for Early Warning Capabilities in
  Conflict Management in Southern Africa

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Crises which are a by-product of a failed
  process of integration in the overall process
  of the creation of a nation State. It might be
  that power is monopolised by a specific
  ethnic group. This could lead to demands for
  autonomy or independence.

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Conflict which are the product of a Cold War
  legacy
• Conflicts relating to drug and arms trafficking

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Conflicts of a religious character
• Roots are deeply historical
• Arise out of the continuing crisis of governance
  
• and mismanagement of resources.
• Transcend ethnic bonds and are often manipulated
  
• by political ambitions.

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Conflicts of a socio-economic character
• The situation where a political or social
  movement takes up arms to redress perceived
  wrongs in the absence of a true democratic
  system.

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Environmental conflicts
• Depleting water resources
• Drought
• Famine
• Deforestation
• Global warming
• Drastic climate changes

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Demographic changes in Africa
• - Worlds population increasing by an estimated
  80 million people a year
• - Highest population growth is in developing
  countries
• - Since 1965, Africa has had the highest
  population growth in the world - around 2.9
  per year
• - Africas population is expected to exceed the
  one billion mark around 2008

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FUTURE CONFLICT TRENDS

• Military threats
• - End of Cold War shifted the emphasis from
  a global offensive approach to a greater
  emphasis on regional conflicts
• - The emphasis in the change is moving away
  from a global Soviet threat to regional
  contingencies i.e. the requirement for
  missile defense in regional conflicts

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Definition of Early Warning

• Early warning may be defined as the ability to
  collect and analyse information in the interests
  of providing strategic options for preventive
  action or, as may be required, informed response
  Rusu 1997.
• Early Warning is the management of violent
  conflict based on 4 practices
• 1) Collection and verification of information
  relevant to the mitigation and prevention of
  violent conflict
• 2) The analysis of that information
• 3) Scenario building and optional responses
• 4) Communicating the above to decision makers
• Ch 4 The Conceptual Framework

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WHAT KIND OF INFORMATION DO WE NEED?

• a) Qualitative Information
• b) Quantitative Information
• c) Long Term Information
  - conflict and its sources are often
  deep rooted
• - have to study the history of the conflict

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WHAT KIND OF INFORMATION DO WE NEED?

• d) Short Term Information
• - conflict, like conflict resolution, is a
  dynamic process. The more variables that there
  are to a conflict situation the higher the
  possibility will be of changes.
• e) Multi-Disciplinary Information
  - Most conflicts are multi-disciplinary
  in nature. We have to source information
  from a variety of disciplines and sources.

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DECENTRALISED AND INTEGRATED EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

• a) Decentralisation
• - information overload
• - decision overload
• b) Integration
• - We have to map the information onto each
  other to understand the inter-relationships
  among them
  

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PRINCIPALS THAT SHOULD GOVERN THE EARLY WARNING
MECHANISM

• a) Sovereignty
• b) Confidentiality
• c) Verification

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The Use of Satellite Technology

• The 1990/91 Gulf crisis demonstrated that space
  systems could play an important role in
  strengthening conventional capabilities.
• Use was made of photographs and radar
  reconnaissance satellites to monitor Iraqi troop
  deployments and to gather early warning about the
  launch of missiles using early warning
  satellites.
• Remote Sensing From Space National and
  International Security - Bhupendra Jasani

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The Use of Satellite Technology

• Communication Satellites establish rapid links
  with virtually any part of the world.
• Navigation by satellites, yielding position
  accuracy down to several tens of meters is
  beginning to be used by civil land and air
  transportation industries.
• Remote Sensing from Space National and
  International Security Bhupendra Jasani

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The Use of Satellite Technology

• Observation satellites, using optical and radar
  systems, are able to distinguish objects as small
  as 2 meters.
• Infrared (IR) thermal devises can detect objects
  at night and can determine whether camouflage has
  been used.
• Remote Sensing from Space National and
  International Security Bhupendra Jasani

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The Role of Space in International Security

• High performance commercial remote sensing
  satellites make it possible for all States to use
  technology to verify multilateral treaties as the
  images can be purchased by anyone.
• Vela monitoring compliance with the Nuclear
  Test Ban Treaty. At first could detect nuclear
  explosions in space, later improvements led to
  detection in the air and on the ground. Lasted
  from 1963 to 1984.
• 1. Remote Sensing from Space National and
  International Security
  Bhupendra Jasani
• 2. David Hastings US Early Warning Satellite Page

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Great Lakes Crisis 1996SPOT Pan Imagery of
MAGUNGA Refugee Camp
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SPOT Pan/XS Merge of Magunga Camp in September
1996
Derived Population Estimate Approximately
500,000
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Site of Magunga Refugee Camp September 1998 (
SPOT Xi)
1996
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Public Transport Infrastructure Monitoring
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• END
• Satellite based Communication and Earth
  Observation for Early Warning Capabilities in
  Conflict Management in Southern Africa