The Lighter Side

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The Lighter Side Celebrations What better
example than New Years? Finally, Whats the
Bottom Line?
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An obvious prediction New Years celebrations
Concatenation across all (24) time
zonesCumulative excess deviation of means
Model Prediction
Weak Replication
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Broughton Taking the metaphor to heart Evoked
Response in the ElectrogaiagramSignal
averaging Mini-Celebrating time zones
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Evoked Response in the Electrogaiagram
Maxi-celebrating time zones, Signal averaging
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An Alternative Analysis Variance of the Scores

• Sum of zi2-1 across eggs is c2 with N df
• Equivalent to variance s2 of egg scores
• Large cumulative deviation
• Reflects distribution spread, variability of
  means
• Reflects large deviations in either direction

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Y2K New Year 1999-2000 Coherent engagement?
Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction
of Variance across eggs
Odds, GMT
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New Years 2000-2001 Variance Reduction Signal
Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared,
Smoothed
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New Years 2001-2002 Variance Reduction Signal
Average over 37 time zones Normalized as
Z-scores, Smoothed
5-Min Smoothing Window
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What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go
with it?

• Four years of data
• 50 eggs around the world
• More than 100 formal studies
• About 65 positive outcome
• About 20 individually significant
• Many analyses remain to be done

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Formal Chi-square outcome sequence versus random
draws from Chi-square distribution
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A subset of the formal trials, compared with
Pseudo-random data
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Bottom line the full formal database113 global
events over 4 years
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Bigger Picture What is our aspiration?

• Sharpen and focus our questions
• Aim for theoretical understanding
• Capture insight about creative mind
• Consider evidence that we are one
• Contribute to better future for culture

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We think the world apart. What would it be like
to think the world together? -- Parker
Palmer, educator
http//noosphere.princeton.edu