THE PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

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THE PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT and THE
CHANGING ROLE OF THE TECHNICAL SPECIALIST Roland
Clift Director, Centre for Environmental
Strategy University of Surrey GUILDFORD, Surrey,
GU2 7XH
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THE HUMAN ECONOMY
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THREE DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY
ECO-CENTRIC CONCERNS
Natural resources and ecological capacity
Human capital and social expectations
Techno-economic systems
SOCIO-CENTRIC CONCERNS
TECHNO-CENTRIC CONCERNS
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HOW DID WE GET HERE?

• DECISIONS which failed to recognise
• The limits to the global stock of non-renewable
  resources
• The limits to the planets carrying capacity
• The rights of others, including future
  generations
• Not an exclusive list

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A TAXONOMY OF DECISIONS
Decisions
Decisions without agreed criteria
Decisions with agreed criteria
With prior articulation of preferences
Without prior articulation of preferences
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THE NEW PARADIGM

• DECISIONS involving an extended peer community
• SPECIALISTS who contribute to deliberative
  decision processes but are not prescriptive
• HONEST BROKERS

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POST-NORMAL SCIENCE (after Ravetz)
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THE RCEP MODEL OF DELIBERATIVE DECISION PROCESSES
ARTICULATION OF PEOPLES VALUES
recognise problem
SYNTHESIS
define and frame
formulate objectives
review
DECISION
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AN EXAMPLE UK POLICY ON ENERGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION 22ND
REPORT ENERGY THE CHANGING CLIMATE (2000)
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the world is now faced with a radical challenge
of a totally new kind which requires an urgent
response By the time the effects of human
activities on the global climate are clear and
unambiguous it would be too late to take
preventive measures. Recommended ensuring that
concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere does not exceed 550 ppmv, twice the
pre-industrial level.
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A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH an
effective, enduring and equitable climate
protocol will eventually require emission
quotas to be allocated to nations on a simple and
equal per capita basis nations emission
quotas (should) follow a contraction and
convergence trajectory. UK carbon dioxide
emissions must be reduced by almost 60 from
their current level by mid-century.
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Three legs to the argument, corresponding
to the three components of sustainable
development 1. Enviro-centric limit on carbon
dioxide concentration in the atmosphere 2. Soci
o-centric the contract and converge principle
3. Techno-centric the target is
technologically and economically feasible.
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KEY DISCIPLINARY INPUTS
GEOPHYSICS effects of change inatmospheric
composition PHILOSOPHY ethical basis for
planning within the geophysical
constraints ENGINEERING technical and economic
feasibility of actions
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IS THIS TECHNOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE? Demand-side
reductions e.g. improved building
performance modal shifts in transport lesser
improvements in manufacturing. - Would be
encouraged by carbon levy Supply-side
changes - renewable energy sources -
electrical storage grid stability - carbon
dioxide sequestration - nuclear or fossil
electrical generation - different transport
fuels and drives. Estimated cost of 60
reduction in UK 2 of GDP
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AND DONT FORGET.
Thermodynamics represents one of the few
immutable truths!