The Importance of Statistics 16 Sept 08

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The Importance of Statistics16 Sept 08

• Professor Denise Lievesley
• UN African Centre for Statistics
• Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
• and President, International Statistical Institute

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Purposes of official statistics

• Official statistics are fundamental to good
  government, the delivery of public services and
  decision making in all sectors of society.
• Sound statistical information is essential to
  manage development, and to ensure that policies
  reflect the needs of the people.
• and also essential to democracy, providing
  Parliament and the public with a window on
  society and the economy, and on the work and
  performance of government.
• In this way statistics might be seen as a tool
  for empowerment of the general public.

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What is evidence-based policy ?

• Helping people to make well-informed decisions
  about policies, programmes and projects, by
  putting the best available evidence from research
  at the heart of policy development and
  implementation
• Enlightening through making explicit what is
  known through scientific evidence and importantly
  what is not known
• Better statistics, better decisions, better
  outcomes Vision of the African Centre for
  Statistics

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In contrast to opinion based policy

• which relies heavily on
• either the selective use of information or
• on the untested views of individuals or groups
  often inspired by ideological standpoints,
  prejudices or speculative conjecture.
• and policy-based evidence

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Need an evidence base at all stages in the policy
cycle

• in shaping agendas,
• in defining issues,
• in identifying options,
• in making choices of action,
• in delivering them and
• in monitoring their impact and
  outcomes.

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so

• The data we collect must be driven by policy
  needs but we also need to maintain independence.
  
• Achieving an appropriate balance between
  relevance and independence is not straightforward
  especially in situations of resource constraints.

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The nature of evidence

• We might define evidence as The available body
  of facts or information indicating whether a
  belief or proposition is true or valid.
• It is important to appreciate that it will never
  be perfect.

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All scientific evidence is imperfect.

• The absence of excellent evidence does not
  make evidence-based decision making impossible
  what is required is the best evidence available
  not the best evidence possible
• Muir Gray 1997
• Evidence rarely provides neat and tidy
  prescriptions to decision makers as to what they
  should do. Often it generates more questions to
  be resolved
• Petrosino et al 2001

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The policy making processPolicy making is the
process by which governments translate their
political vision into programmes and actions to
deliver desired changes in the real world.

• Evidence but one input into policy process

Self interest
Values/ beliefs
Campaign promises
Ideology
Judgement
Tradition
Lobbies
Expert views
Acceptability to public
Experience
Resource constraints
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• There is nothing a government hates more
  than to be well-informed for it makes the
  process of arriving at decisions much more
  complicated and difficult.
• John Maynard Keynes

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• All policy making is about making choices to
  bring about change.
• It is a political process circumscribed by values
  and principles, whether these are explicitly
  stated or not.
• Aim for policy coherence commonly agreed aims,
  based on fundamental values, openness and
  transparency of policy process, reasonable time
  frames for assessing and commenting on policy
  proposals and a good dialogue with other policy
  actors

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Joint Marrakech Memorandum

• Affirm a commitment to fostering a global
  partnership on managing for development results.
  Awareness is growing that getting better
  development results requires management systems
  and capacities that put results at the center of
  planning, implementation and evaluation. We
  need to align cooperation programs with desired
  country results, define the expected contribution
  of our support to country outcomes and rely on
  and strengthen countries monitoring and
  evaluation systems to track progress and assess
  outcomes better distil the lessons of
  countries experiences and disseminate knowledge
  about what gets results in different country
  contexts.

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Evidence base urgently needed in developing
countries

• Problems are severe and urgent
• Need ownership by countries
• and to empower them
• Develop policies which are relevant to their
  needs
• and ensure effective implementation
• Need to counteract corruption
• Paucity of data is a major obstacle
• Lack of recognition /acceptance of much data

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C.Scott for Paris 21Use of good statistics
having a positive effect on policy

• Uganda
• Poor public service delivery caused by
  governments failure to ensure that budgeted
  funds reached front line agencies
• Brazil and Mexico
• Tackled child poverty and education by a
  programme to give child benefits to mothers
  according to the attendance of their children in
  school

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C.Scott for Paris 21Absence of data or failure
to use available information has negative effect
on policy making

• Malawi
• Data from Save the Children on child malnutrition
  disregarded by government because of conflict
  with crop data
• Botswana
• Deficiencies in data on HIV/AIDS (from sentinel
  surveillance systems) legitimised the rejection
  of the message on the scale of the problem

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• Question for us as to whether this is rhetoric or
  reality ?
• How can we work together to ensure that policies
  are as well as being well-intentioned are
  well-informed and transparent?
• Our aims to develop a strategic vision, an
  honest assessment of progress and an
  institutional flexibility to adapt to new
  information.

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Pre-requisite for evidence based policy and for
managing for results is that the data must be
trustworthy

• Depends upon the quality of the data and the
  quality of the professional statisticians

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Quality of data
Validity and reliability
Efficient use of resources
Consistency over time and space
Relevance to policy
Comparability through standards
Potential for disaggregation
Currency and punctuality
Accessibility and affordability
Clarity and transparency
Coherence across sources
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But it is not enough that the data are
trustworthy they must also be trusted

• otherwise they wont be used
• there will be fights about the data rather than
  about the issues
• data need to be the currency of public debates

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How do we ensure they are trusted?

• Data must be policy relevant but politically
  independent
• There must be no political interference with the
  data and no perception that there is
• So issues as to who has access to data prior to
  its release is critical
• Data should be released by statisticians and
  separated from the political spin

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Important aspects of building trust

• Autonomy of statistics office
• Statistical legislation
• Existence of an independent statistical board
• Development of codes of conduct
• Appointment of DG statistics removed from the
  political process
• Users should be involved in setting the agenda
• External audits of the statistical processes
  should be employed

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• Trust comes on foot, but leaves on horseback.
• Dutch statesman,
• Johan Thorbecke

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Challenges for statisticians

• increase understanding of the policy process,
  where and how evidence can feed into it improve
  interpretation and communication of data
  particularly in relation to uncertainty
• speak the language of policy makers
• forge strong relationships with policy analysts,
  increase number of policy analysts
• combine humility and confidence
• improve training for statisticians

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We need to improve our communication skills
think about impact e.g.

• Bill Gates has a personal fortune greater than
  the combined wealth of the 106 million poorest
  Americans.
• The cost of putting all children into school is
  less than we spend on icecream in Europe each year

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Other challenges

• Timely data to address critical issues (on the
  other hand immediate issues should not crowd out
  longer term and chronic issues)
• Getting the balance right between nationally
  specific data and cross-national comparability
  (knowledge of self is gained through
  understanding of others)
• Providing disaggregated data for local use (too
  often the nation is our unit of analysis)

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Particular challenge MeasurabilityStatistician
s need to guard against what cant be measured
isnt real

• The danger with a measurement culture is that
  excessive attention is given to what can be
  easily measured, at the expense of what is
  difficult or impossible to measure quantitatively
  even though this may be fundamental.
• Economists have come to feel
• What cant be measured, isnt real.
• The truth is always an amount
• Count numbers, only numbers count.

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• The gross national product does not allow for
  the health of our children, the quality of their
  education, or the joy of their play it does not
  include the beauty of our poetry or the strength
  of our marriages, the intelligence of our public
  debate or the integrity of our public officials.
  It measures neither our wit nor our courage,
  neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our
  compassion nor our devotion to our country, it
  measures everything in short except that which
  makes life worthwhile.
• Robert Kennedy

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• Statisticians must be prepared to address the
  big issues
• to collect and report data even if they are
  uncomfortable for the government of the day,
• to address inequities in our societies,
• to exercise our responsibilities to use
  information to improve well- being of global
  poor.

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We need leadership

• rooted and committed to the core values of a
  nation and its people.
• that drives and inspires diverse partners to work
  collaboratively towards a common objective
• focussed on the excellence of our evidence
• informed by an over-riding commitment to stay
  grounded and accountable to citizens
• that is bold and dares to dream no little dreams,
  of how we can build even better nations and,
  ultimately, a better world.
• drawn from Roy RomanowFounding Chair, The
  Canadian Index of Wellbeing

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Graduating from being data producers to
generators of information and knowledge

• attention to data collection at expense of
  generation of information and knowledge
• mountains of data insufficiently processed and
  analysed
• most people not adept at understanding data
• even more important for statisticians to get
  involved in interpretation and use of information

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• Data are collected using valuable resources
  both financial but also the time of survey and
  census respondents and are increasingly seen as
  being a vital part of democratic systems, since
  people are empowered though information.
• Official data are a public good part of the
  enabling environment for national and
  international development, which all stakeholders
  in society should have access to and benefit from.

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• It is the responsibility of statisticians to
  ensure that the widest possible use is made of
  data consistent of course with the legal
  constraints and ethical undertakings.
• Data grow in value the more they are used, unlike
  most commodities which are diminished with use.

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Partnerships for data use

• with
• subject experts
• data analysts
• researchers in government, universities, private
  sector and civil society
• who can contribute to development of data
  production systems in countries
• this requires making census and survey data
  accessible to these stakeholders

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Obstacles

• Despite these international guidelines and
  exhortations for data access, obstacles do exist
  and we must be sensitive to them. They include
• legal obstacles
• technical and financial obstacles including
  in-house capacity to handle the complex aspects
  of micro-data dissemination such as data
  anonymization
• political obstacles
• psychological obstacles the tendency to control
  access perhaps because of concerns over its
  mis-interpretation or because data is power

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Legal constraints

• in many countries the statistical legislation in
  use is out dated and does not recognise the
  dissemination of electronic data particularly
  micro-data
• some legislation, or the interpretation of it,
  actually prevents such dissemination on account
  of confidentiality
• new legislation needed
• the African Centre for Statistics is working with
  countries to help them to prepare both
  legislation and professional frameworks relevant
  to todays era of electronic information.

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Preservation is essential

• Having collected data at some cost to the
  taxpayer, it behoves official statisticians to
  manage them well.
• Alongside dissemination, this entails data
  preservation.
• Due to poor data management, human error as well
  as technical change and inadequate use of
  technology, many data sets including critical
  census data are no longer readable.
• Thus all that remains of this important legacy
  are the, often quite superficial, reports that
  were produced at the time.
• To this extent an important part of our heritage
  is lost and we will be severely limited in our
  analysis of change.

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• Long term preservation of electronic material is
  not a straightforward task, especially in
  resource-poor and technology-weak developing
  country statistical offices.
• It can be hard to persuade financial authorities
  to spend money on the preservation of data for
  historians and statisticians of the future, when
  there are so many pressing problems today.

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Partnerships for data preservation

• To this end, partnership - for both technical
  work and advocacy across the data archiving,
  data librarian, statistical and research
  communities is to be encouraged.
• Welcome the formation of new organisations such
  as the African Association of Statistical Data
  Archivists
• Value of international networks and support
  systems

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Our priorities?

• Inculcating values in our statistical agencies
• Building trust in the statistical system
• Ensuring that our data are policy relevant
• Celebrating and supporting good leaders
• Creating strong statistical networks through
  providing access to micro-data and through the
  formation of national statistical societies

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thanks

• To my colleagues at the African Centre for
  Statistics for their willingness to share their
  expertise and knowledge with me and their
  openness to my ideas recognising they are
  well-intentioned if sometimes naïve.
• To my Ethiopian hosts for enriching my life
  through gaining an understanding of theirs
• To Professor Kiregyera for all the lunchtimes
  when we put the world to rights