Outlook for U.S. Commodities

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Outlook for U.S. Commodities

• by Jim Hilker, Ph. D. and John Ferris, Ph. D.
• MSU Department of Agricultural Economics

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CORN BALANCE SHEET
Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Acre Planted (Mil) 80.2 77.4
76.8 Acre Harv. (Mil) 72.6 70.5
70.0 Bu/Harvested Ac 134.4 133.8 134.9 Producti
on (Mil Bu) 9,759 9,437 9,443
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CORN BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99
1999-00 2000-01 Beg. Stocks 1,308 1,787
1,714 Production 9,759 9,437
9,443 Imports 19
15 13 Total Supply 11,086
11,239 11,170
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CORN BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Uses Feed and Residual
5,496 5,650 5,625 Food, Seed and
Ind. Uses 1,822 1,900 1,960 Total
Domestic 7,318 7,550 7,585 Exports
1,981 1,975 2,025 Total Use 9,299
9,525 9,610
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CORN BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Total Supply 11,086 11,239
11,170 Total Use 9,299 9,525
9,610 End. Stocks 1,787 1,714
1,560 End.Stocks, of Use 19.2
18.0 16.2 Reg. Loan Rate 1.89
1.89 1.89 U.S. Season Average Farm Price,
/Bu. 1.94 1.90 2.10
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WHEAT BALANCE SHEET
Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Acre Planted (Mil) 65.8 62.8
62.2 Acre Harv. (Mil) 59.0 53.9
54.3 Bu/Harvested Ac 43.2 42.7
40.6 Production (Mil Bu) 2,548 2,302
2,205
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WHEAT BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99
1999-00 2000-01 Beg. Stocks 722 946
972 Production 2,548 2,302
2,205 Imports 103
100 103 Total Supply 3,373
3,348 3,280
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WHEAT BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Uses Food 903 910
915 Seed 81 91
90 Feed 401 300 300
Total Domestic 1,385 1,301 1,305
Exports 1,042 1,075 1,125 Total Use
2,427 2,375 2,430
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WHEAT BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Total Supply 3,373 3,348
3,280 Total Use 2,427 2,376
2,430 End. Stocks 946 972
850 End.Stocks, of Use 38.9
41.0 35.0 Reg. Loan Rate 2.58
2.58 2.58 U.S. Season Average Farm Price,
/Bu. 2.65 2.50 2.80
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SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET
Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Acre Planted (Mil) 72.0 73.8
73.8 Acre Harv. (Mil) 70.4 72.8
72.5 Bu/Harvested Ac 38.9 36.5
39.2 Production (Mil Bu) 2,741 2,994
3,210
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SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99
1999-00 2000-01 Beg. Stocks 200
348 365 Production 2,741 2,643
2,842 Imports 3
3 3 Total Supply 2,944
2,994 3,210
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SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Uses Crushings 1,590 1,605
1,630 Exports 801 865
920 Food, Seed and Residuals 205
159 160 Total Use 2,596
2,629 2,710
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SOYBEANS BALANCE SHEET
(Million Bushels)

Est. Proj. Hilker 1998-99 1999-00
2000-01 Total Supply 2,944 2,994
3,210 Total Use 2,596 2,629
2,710 End. Stocks 348 365
500 End.Stocks, of Use 13.4
13.9 18.4 Reg. Loan Rate 5.26
5.26 5.26 U.S. Season Average Farm Price,
/Bu. 4.93 4.75 4.50
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Low Grain and Soybean Prices

• Translates into
• Low Energy and Protein Costs for the Livestock
  Sector

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Milk Price History and Projection
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History Projection