Demographics of Housing

1
Demographics of Housing
Mountain Plains Regional Housing Summit Saratoga,
Wyoming June 6-8, 2004

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

2
Presentation Objective
To provide background for an informed debate
about future housing issues in the region
3
Issues to be addressed
1. Demographic shifts occurring in the region
2. Housing trends and challenges
3. Economic and fiscal outlook
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Demographic Themes
1. Population consolidation
2. Shifting age distribution
3. Changing household composition
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Percentage Change in Total PopulationU.S.
Counties 1990 to 2000
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Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties, 1989
Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor
or proprietor) from farming
Other nonmetro counties
Farming counties
Metro counties
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Population Per Square Mile, 2000
Rhode Island
Source National Atlas of the United States,
Bureau of the Census
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Demographic Themes
1. Population consolidation
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Urban Population
Urban Population as a Percent of Total Population
by State 1980 and 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Tipping Point for Rural over 5 million
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N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution,1900-200
0
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
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Urban-Rural Population Distribution in Wyoming
1900 to 2000Source U.S. Census Bureau
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North Dakota Cities by Size, 1960 to 2000
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17
urban
rural
Source U.S. Bureau of the Census
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City Size in Wyoming 1960 and 2000Source U.S.
Census Bureau
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23
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Housing Considerations

• Rural communities are shrinking, except in
  amenity areas

- Large communities expanding with increased
dependency on commuting
- Growing imbalance between urban and rural
housing needs
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Demographic Themes
2. Shifting age distribution
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Net Domestic Migration Rates Per 100 Persons in
the United States by County 1990 to 1999
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The Young
Percent Change in Persons Ages 0 to 24 by County
1980 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Population Projections - Young
Percent Change in Persons Ages 0 to 24 by State
2000 to 2010 and 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Work Force
Percent Change in Persons Ages 25 to 44 by
County 1980 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Population Projections - Workforce
Percent Change in Persons Ages 25 to 44 by State
2000 to 2010 and 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Pre-Retirees
Percent Change in Persons Ages 45 to 64 by
County 1980 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Population Projections Pre Retirees
Percent Change in Persons Ages 45 to 64 by State
2000 to 2010 and 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Elderly 65 plus
Percent Change in Persons Ages 65 and Older by
County 1980 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Elderly 65 plus
Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Population Projections - Elderly
Percent Change in Persons Ages 65 Plus by State
2000 to 2010 and 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Rising Life Expectancy at Age 65
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19.7
Years Remaining at Age 65
?
17.8
16.4
17.2
14.4
11.9
0
1900
1960
2010 (proj.)
1980
1998
Source National Center for Health Statistics
Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. U.S. Bureau of
the Census.
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Number of Projected Centenarians
140,000
131,000
100,000
72,000
60,000
28,000
15,000
20,000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source U.S. Census Bureau, P251130.
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The Elderly 85 plus
Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Housing Considerations

• Dramatically increasing elderly population

- Loss of young adults in rural areas
- Significant shift in pre-retirees to amenity
locations
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Demographic Themes
3. Changing household composition
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Household Composition - Colorado
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Household Composition - Idaho
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Household Composition - Montana
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Household Composition - Nebraska
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Household Composition North Dakota
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Household Composition South Dakota
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Household Composition - Wyoming
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Young Householders
Householders Under 24 Years Old as a Percent of
Total Households by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Work Force Age Householders
Householders Ages 25 to 44 as a Percent of Total
Households by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Pre-Retiree Householders
Householders Ages 45 to 64 as a Percent of Total
Households by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Elderly Householders
Householders Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of
Total Households by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Hispanic Population
Percent Change in the Hispanic Population by
State 2000 to 2010 and 2000 to 2020
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Hispanic Population
Hispanic Population as a Percent of Total Persons
by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Foreign Born
Foreign Born Population as a Percent of Total
Persons by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Foreign Born
Percent Change in the Foreign Born Population by
County 1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Housing Considerations

• Small number of families with children

- Growing number of single person households
- Increasing diversity mix
- Increasing elderly and pre-retirees
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Housing Themes
1. Aging housing stock
2. Home ownership
3. Future housing needs
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Housing Themes
1. Aging housing stock
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Housing Units
Percent Change in Total Housing Units by County
1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Older Homes
Percent of Housing Units Built Before 1940 by
County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Older Homes Owner Occupied
Percent of Owner-Occupied Housing Units Built
Before 1940 by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Older Homes Renter Occupied
Percent of Renter-Occupied Housing Units Built
Before 1940 by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Housing Considerations

• High concentration of aging housing stock in
  same location as growing proportion of seniors

- Similar situation for rental housing stock
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Housing Themes
2. Home ownership
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Owner-Occupied Housing Units
Percent Change in Owner-Occupied Housing Units by
County 1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Homeownership Rates
Percent of Householders who Own Their Home by
State 1900 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Homeownership Rates
Annual Homeownership Rates by State 1984 to 2003
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy
Survey.
Note Homeownership rate equals owner-occupied
households divided by total occupied households.
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Homeownership Rates Age
Homeownership Rates by Age Group for the United
States 1982-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy
Survey.
Note Homeownership rate equals owner-occupied
households of a specific age group divided by
total occupied households of the same age group.
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Homeownership Rates Families
Homeownership Rates by Family Composition for the
United States 1983-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy
Survey.
Note This homeownership rate is calculated by
dividing the number of owner-occupied households
in a particular category by the total number of
households in that category.
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Homeownership Rates Race
Homeownership Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin
for the United States 1983-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy
Survey.
Note This homeownership rate is calculated by
dividing the number of owner-occupied households
in a particular category by the total number of
households in that category.
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Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Percent Change in Renter-Occupied Housing Units
by County 1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Mobile Homes
Percent Change in Mobile Homes by County 1990 to
2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Total Households
Total Households by State 1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Housing Considerations

• Increasing homeownership rate

- Babyboom moving into highest category of
homeownership
- Elderly seniors fasting growing segment and
will demand different housing
- Amenity growth housing in demand
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Housing Themes
3. Future housing needs
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Persons Living Alone
1-Person Households by State 1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Household Size
Number of Persons Per Household by County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Persons Living Alone - Percent
1-Person Households as a Percent of All Occupied
Housing by State 1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Persons Living Alone - Owners
1-Person Owner-Occupied Households by State 1940
to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Persons Living Alone - Owners
1-Person Owner-Occupied Households as a Percent
of All Owner-Occupied Housing by State 1940 to
2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Persons Living Alone - Renters
1-Person Renter-Occupied Households by State
1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Persons Living Alone - Renters
1-Person Renter-Occupied Households as a Percent
of All Renter-Occupied Housing by State 1940 to
2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Type of Home Single Family
Single Family Housing Units as a Percent of All
Housing by State 1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Type of Home Multiple Units
Housing Units in Structures with 2 to 4 Units as
a Percent of All Housing by State 1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Type of Home Multiple Units
Housing Units in Structures with 5 Units or More
as a Percent of All Housing by State 1940 to
2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Type of Home - Mobile
Mobile Homes as a Percent of All Housing by
State 1940 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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Housing Considerations

• Increasing demand for single person housing

- Increasing trend in large multi-housing units
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Economic Fiscal Themes
1. Consequences of Federal Budget
2. State fiscal issues

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ESTIMATED STATE BUDGET DEFICITS FOR FISCAL YEAR
2004(SOURCE CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY
PRIORITIES)
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Montana
Wyoming
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PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME 2000-2003(SOURCE
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS APRIL 2004)
Preliminary data
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Per Capita Income
Percent Change in Per Capita Personal Income by
County 1997 to 2001
Source U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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POVERTY STATUS, Persons 2002(SOURCE U.S.
CENSUS BUREAU 2003 ANNUAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
SUPPLEMENT
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POVERTY STATUS, FAMILIES 2002(SOURCE U.S.
CENSUS BUREAU 2003 ANNUAL SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
SUPPLEMENT)
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The Moderate to Poor
Percent of Families Earning Less than 40,000 by
County 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Moderate to Poor
Percent Change in Families Earning Less than
40,000 by County 1990 to 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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2003 NATION-WIDEHOUSING ACTIVITY(SOURCE U.S.
HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS FEB 2004)

• 2003 was an exceptionally good year for housing
  in the nation
• Records set for
• single-family permits
• single-family starts
• single-family completions
• new single-family home sales
• existing single-family home sales
• mortgage interest rates
• home ownership rates

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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING
ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2005(SOURCE CENTER ON
BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES MARCH 17, 2004)
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LOCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CUTS IN FEDERAL HOUSING
ASSISTANCE, BY STATE IN 2009(SOURCE CENTER ON
BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES MARCH 17, 2004)
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Housing Considerations

• State fiscal picture uncertain

- Federal budget will impact various housing
programs
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Housing Presentation 2004

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.nodak.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc