ATOC 6020 Weather Forecasting Seminar

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ATOC 6020Weather Forecasting Seminar
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Course Goals

• Apply theoretical concepts from ATOC core classes
  (5050 and 5060) to real-world mid-latitude
  weather
• Use weather products available online to
• Assess current weather situation
• Why is the weather that is being observed
  happening?
• Forecast future weather
• How will the weather change in the next several
  days?
• Critique past forecasts to learn sources of
  forecast errors

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How will we achieve these goals?

• Forecasting contest
• Forecast high and low temperature
• Forecast precipitation category
• Forecasts for 6 to 54 hours in the future (day 1
  and 2)
• Forecast for Denver, CO and Indianapolis, IN
• Forecasting contest entry page
• Weekly weather discussion (handout)
• Forecast review
• Discussion of past weeks significant weather
• Forecast discussion
• Written forecast analysis (handout)

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ATOC 6020 Expectations

• You should plan on
• Spending at least 1 hour per week preparing your
  forecasts
• Spending at least 1 hour per week assessing your
  forecast and preparing your written forecast
  analysis
• Contributing to the weekly weather discussions
• Leading one weekly weather discussion during the
  semester, which will require several hours
  preparation

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Weather Products Available Online

• ATOC 6020 web page
• NCAR Real-time Weather Data
• University of Wyoming Weather Web
• Plymouth State Weather Center
• NCEP Models
• Forecast Model Animator
• National Weather Service web pages
• Week in Review Observations
• Week in Review Guidance Review

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Observational Weather Products

• Surface data
• Maps (NCAR Real-time Weather Data)
• Time series (Plymouth State)
• Meteograms (Plymouth State)
• Upper air maps (University of Wyoming)
• What levels are of interest for forecasting?
• What can we learn from each upper air map?
• Soundings (University of Wyoming)

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Observational Weather Products

• Satellite images (NCAR Real-time Weather Data)
• Radar (NCAR Real-time Weather Data)
• Severe weather
• Thunderstorms (Storm Prediction Center)
• Hurricanes (National Hurricane Center)

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NWP Products

• Model forecast maps
• Which maps are of interest for forecasting?
• NCEP Models
• Forecast Model Animator
• NCAR Real-time Weather Data
• University of Wyoming
• Model output statistics (MOS)
• Ex. DEN NAM MOS
• Reading MOS products

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NWS Products

• Zone Forecast
• DEN
• IND
• Grid Forecast
• DEN
• IND
• Forecast Discussion
• DEN
• IND