Rotating Globe Flash

1
Scribe Nowcasting A decision support system
Richard Verret, Claude Landry, Reine
Parent,Jean-François Deschênes, André Giguère
Development Branch Canadian Meteorological Center Meteorological Service of Canada Direction du développement Centre météorologique canadien Service météorologique du Canada
CMOS SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin
2
Content

1. Objectives of project.
2. System description and data processing.
3. Example.
4. Verification results.
5. Conclusion.
6. Future.

3
1. Objectives

• Goals of the SCRIBE Nowcasting System
• To ingest observed and nowcasting model data in
  order to update interactively and in real-time
  the SCRIBE (objective or edited) weather
  elements.
• To make available to forecasters the most recent
  set of observed and nowcasting data directly into
  the SCRIBE Weather Element Editor.
• To provide an integrated tool to monitor,
  prepare, update and revise forecasts in support
  to short term forecast decisions.

4
2. System Description and Data Processing
SCRIBE SPC
CMC
5
Nowcasting Models NWP
Observations
SFC OBS
PubTools
Radar OBS
Radar Forecast
NWP
Lightning OBS
TSTM Prob
Quality Control
Stat. Model
Stations Dictionary
Observations Database
NowCast Database
Synthesis Rules
Sent to Regional SCRIBE every hour
Continuous Data 1hr time resolution
Observations Very Short Range Forecast
Nowcasting Matrices
Weather Elements Concepts Generator
6
SCRIBE Weather Elements Concepts Update
Regional Scribe Database
Weather Elements Concepts Generator
Observations
Nowcast
Nowcasting Matrices
Product Generator
Obs/Nowcast Only Wx Concepts t T-6 .....T12
Nowcasting
Working Forecast
Updated Wx Concepts Further edition by
Forecaster
Regular Scribe Wx Concepts 00 - 144 hrs (00Z
or 12Z run)
Working Forecast Wx Concepts
Interactive Concepts Merger Module
7
3. Example
SCRIBE 00Z
NWCSTG 08Z
NWCSTG 09Z
NWCSTG 10Z
NWCSTG 11Z
NWCSTG 12Z
NWCSTG 13Z
NWCSTG 14Z
SCRIBE 12Z
NWCSTG 15Z
NWCSTG 16Z
NWCSTG 17Z
NWCSTG 18Z
NWCSTG 19Z
NWCSTG 20Z
8
(No Transcript)
9
4. Verification Results

• WINTER
• Period Nov. 2003 to Feb. 2004
•  Cut Off  1 h before issue time
• Hourly Verification (hr 0 to hr 6)
• 23 Canadian Stations with Man. obs.
• Morning Forecast

• SUMMER
• Period May. 2004 to Aug. 2004
•  Cut Off  1 h before issue time
• Hourly Verification (hr 0 to hr 9)
• 23 Canadian Stations with Man. obs.
• Morning Forecast

10
Winter
Probability of Precipitation
Occurrence precipitation lasts 15 min.
11
Winter
Precipitation Types (Solid-Liquid-Freezing)
12
Winter
Clouds
13
Winter
Wind Speed
14
Winter
Wind Direction
15
5. Conclusion

• Verification scores indicate
• Nowcasting improves upon pure SCRIBE for most
  Weather Elements at short term projection times.
• However Summer nowcasting PoP and precipitation
  types need to be improved.
• Nowcasting is sharper (PoP).
• Nowcasting increases Utility of forecast.
• Case studies show that the nowcasting system is
  not only a good monitoring tool but it can
  inform, suggest and guide the forecaster when
  preparing the short term forecast weather
  elements with SCRIBE.

16
6. Future

• System Follow-up since Operational implementation
  last Fall 2004.
• Improve rules to expand performance to 9 hours
  (PoP Precipitation Types).
• Include observed Clouds with Satellite data.
• Include Probabilistic RADAR and Lightning
  integrated forecast.
• More Verification
• Visibility and obstruction to visibility.
• Wind Gusts.

17
Thank You ! Merci !