ECMWFHB1

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Operational developments at ECMWF

• Horst Böttger
• Head, Meteorological Division
• ECMWF

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Recent operational developments

• Changes to the forecasting system
• Technical developments
• Performance overview
• Severe weather forecasting
• Plans

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Forecasting system and underlying numerical
products

• Atmospheric global forecasts
• Forecasts to ten days from 12 UTC at 40 km
  resolution (T511)
• Ensemble of 51 forecasts to ten days from 12 UTC
  at 80 km resolution (T255)
• Four forecasts to three days at 40 km resolution
  (Optional Project)
• Ocean wave forecasts
• Global forecasts to ten days from 12 UTC at 40 km
  resolution
• European waters forecasts to five days from 12
  UTC at 0.25 resolution
• Ensemble of 51 forecasts to ten days from 12 UTC
  at 80 km resolution (T255)
• Seasonal forecasts atmosphere-ocean coupled
  model
• Global forecasts to six months based on 40 member
  ensemble
• Monthly forecasts (experimental)

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Changes in the forecasting suite

• 12 September 2000 4D-Var cycle extended to 12
  hours
• 8 November 2000 ATOVS data from NOAA-16
  activated
• 21 November 2000 increased resolution TL511L60/
  TL159L60- TL255L40
• 19 December 2000 and 6 February 2001 EPS bugs
  fixed
• 12 June 2001 satellite data over land
• September 2001 Routine running of version 2 of
  the seasonal forecasting system
• January 2002 QuikSCAT/ TC targeted SV for EPS

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Changes in the forecasting suite

• 1 March 2002 EPS wind gust post-processing
  bugfix (6 vs 12h)
• 9 April 2002 Cy25r1
• revised shortwave radiation scheme
• retuning of the land surface (TESSEL)
  parametrization
• improved physics for the oceanic wave model
• improved wind-gust post-processing bugfix in the
  convective momentum transfer
• use of Meteosat-7 WV radiances, SBUV and GOME
  ozone data, and European wind profilers
• All model changes described since 1985 and
  updated in real time at
• http//www.ecmwf.int/products/data/operational_sys
  tem/index.html

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Web services

• Re-structured web pages
• New wms site released in January simplified
  navigation, new catalogue of products, customised
  pages (Your Room)

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New High Performance Computing Facility
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New HPCF Performance Profile
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New HPCF Migration

• 2001 SP servers leda and metis (NH-2)
• January One stand-alone P690 server
• 4 NH-2 servers with a colony switch
• May Small P690/NH-2 cluster
• July Delivery of first of two Phase-1 clusters
• First Member-States training course
• October Start of acceptance of Phase 1
• March 2003 End of Fujitsu service

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New DHS Implementation plan
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Upper-air performance - summary

• Scores have reached highest 12-month averages in
  SH and NH and also in tropics
• On average the Centres performance compares
  favourably with other centres
• Over Europe the trend towards an increase in the
  number of very good forecasts and a reduction in
  poor forecasts continues in winter
• Changes to the forecasting system had a positive
  impact on summer performance
• Spring/summer performance, over North America in
  particular, remains an issue for further
  investigation

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Evolution of forecast skill for the northern and
southern hemispheres
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Performance indicators (in-) consistency

• 12-months average of the RMS difference between
  two consecutive forecasts valid for the same day

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Winter 2002 vs other centres

• NH (MSLP)

2002
2001

• NH (Z500)

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Winter 2002 vs other centres

• Europe

2002
2001
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Comparison with other centres
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ECMWF (T255L40) model from NCEP analysis
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
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ECMWF (T255L40) model from NCEP analysis
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
EC from EC EC from NCEP NCEP from NCEP
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EPS Long trends (T850, Day 4)
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EPS Long trends (T850, Day 6)
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Weather parameters and waves

• Improved T2m at night, positive impact of land
  surface parametrization scheme (June 2000)
  confirmed
• Reduction in total cloud cover errors
• Reduction in negative day-time wind speed bias
• Positive impact of high resolution model (T511)
  on precipitation forecasts
• Good level of performance maintained for ocean
  wave forecasts

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Change in snow albedo
Soil freezing conditions
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(Fig.14)
Prognostic cloud scheme Micro-physics
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Severe Weather Prediction

• Target in the Centres 10-year strategy
  (1999-2008)
• Provision of good forecasts of severe weather
  towards day 4 or 5, including a suitable
  performance evaluation related to severe weather
• Research and development programme aiming at the
  implementation in 2003 of a first operational
  system in support of severe weather prediction
  started in 1999/2000

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Severe Weather Prediction

• Severe weather prediction test system and
  experimentation programme started in 2001 to
  study the impact of
• Frequent forecast updating
• Larger ensemble sizes
• Higher model resolution
• Multi-analysis forecasts

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Severe Weather Prediction test system- Status -

• March 2001
• Start of routine running of forecast suite based
  on 00UTC data
• T511 ten-day forecast
• 50 member ensemble T255 to ten days
• 9-hour data cut-off, forecasts available in
  afternoon
• June 2001
• Start of the routine running of the
  multi-analysis EPS from DWD, Meteo France, UKMO,
  NCEP 12UTC analyses
• Forecasts available early morning
• Ongoing
• Product development

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Severe Weather Prediction test system- Status -

• Research and development programme
• Testing of tropical singular vectors for
  operational use (implemented April 2002)
• Experimental runs of 100 member ensembles based
  on 12 UTC data
• Experimental runs of ensembles at variable
  resolution

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Experimental forecast with targeted SV
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EPS and model climate distributions
Normalised distance from a climate
distribution 0 forecast distribution identical
to climate one /-1 forecast distribution is a
perfect outlier
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German storm 21 Dec 2001
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Plans

• Handling and use of new satellite data
• MSG/SEVIRI
• AQUA/AIRS
• ENVISAT, ADEOS- II
• others
• Severe weather forecasting
• Replacement of HPCF (Fujitsu) and DHS
• New Web services
• RMDCN