SocialEconomic Conditions

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CAMERA
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Cellular Approach to Malaria Eco-Epidemiological
Risk Assessment
Piebe de Vries1, Saskia Nijhof2, Pim Martens3,
Petra Schneider, Sander Koenraadt, Willem Takken
Objective An increased incidence of
vector-borne diseases is to be expected as a
result of environmental and socio-economic
change. The main objective of the CAMERA project
is to assess how this change has an impact on the
risk of vector-borne diseases (like malaria,
schistosomiasis and dengue). For this purpose an
integrated model is being developed, covering
both the micro and macro dynamics of the
system. Field Research Validation of the model
takes place by performing field research in areas
with different transmission characteristics
located in Kenya, Brazil and Indonesia.
Cellular Approach The impact assessment is
performed by superimposing a grid onto the study
area within a Geographical Information System
(GIS). Disease risk is calculated for each cell
in the grid, depending on its environmental and
socio-economic situation and on its interaction
with neighbouring cells. The model is used to
explore the impact of both global (climate
change) and local (land cover change, population
pressures) changes on the disease risk.
The application of TP on a global scale.The
changes in TP (for the P. vivax parasite) in 2020
as compared to baseline climate data.
Land Cover / Land Use Land cover, land use and
altitude influence malaria risk in several ways,
e.g. by affecting the number of mosquito
breeding sites, the mosquito survival chances and
its biting opportunities. The relation between
land cover and disease risk is investigated by
field research and soliciting expert opinion. The
consequences of future changes in land cover will
be assessed using the integrated model.
Climate Temperature and precipitation have an
important influence on disease risk. In the model
the Transmission Potential (TP) is used for
estimating the disease risk associated with
vector species, ambient temperature and
precipitation patterns. TP is the reciprocal
of the vector populations critical density
threshold necessary to maintain malaria
transmission.
, where a, b, c, p and n are shown in the table
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The parameters used for TP calculation
The importance of temperature and rainfall for
malaria transmission. The same area under
different weather conditions.
Mixed Agriculture
On the background mountains and in the
frontmosquito breeding places created by cattle
Modelling
Decreasing level of scale
Field Research
Increasing level of detail
A risk categorisation applied on a global
scale.This categorisation is based on the number
of consecutive months that transmission takes
place.
Malaria Risk Categorisation The socio-economic
and environmental factors influencing malaria are
represented in the model in various ways, ranging
from quantitative (e.g. TP), to qualitative (e.g.
level of infection risk associated with a certain
landcover). These different factors are
integrated using one discrete categorisation of
malaria risk, like 'epidemic transmission',
'seasonal transmission', and 'year round
transmission. Based on such a categorisation the
consequences of future change scenarios can be
explored.
Social-Economic Conditions The socio-economic
situation influences the actual risk to which
people are exposed. Examples are the access to
bednets, insecticides or anti-malarial drugs.
Migration has important direct and indirect
influences on the epidemic patterns of vector
borne diseases. The model uses demographic and
socio-economic data to give an estimate of the
actual burden of malaria.
For more information see our webpage at
http//www.icis.unimaas.nl/camera or contact
icis_at_icis.unimaas.nl Piebe de Vries ICIS PO box
616 6200 MD Maastricht The Netherlands
Laboratory of Entomology Wageningen
Agricultural University
Maastricht University