Icosystem Corporation and Predictive Analytics

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Icosystem Corporation and Predictive Analytics

• IOP 2006
• January 18, 2006

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Who knows what the future holds?
Predicting the future requires more than looking
at the past
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Who knows what the future holds?
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Predictive Analytics
Icosystem uses advanced analytical techniques
that dont just extrapolate the past into the
future.

• Agent Based Modeling
• Interactive Search

History shows you don't know what the future
brings. -Rick Wagoner, GM CEO
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Who uses our models?

• Corporate
• Aventis
• BP
• DuPont
• Eli Lilly
• Humana
• La Poste
• PepsiCo
• Schlumberger
• Unilever

• Government
• Air Force Research Lab
• U.S. Army
• DARPA
• DISA
• IDA
• NUWC
• OFT
• ONR

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What is Agent Based Modeling?

• Bottom-up simulations from the perspective of an
  individual person/company/market
• Interactions between individuals change behaviors
  during course of simulation
• Global trends emerge, rather than being
  determined up front

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Emergent behavior the Icosystem game
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Computer simulation of the Icosystem game
A is the aggressor, B the defender, try to keep B between you and A A is the aggressor, you are the defender, keep yourself between A and B

See demo at http//www.icosystem.com/game.htm
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Why is this interesting?

• The Icosystem Gamea deceptively simple complex
  system
• Knowing the behavior of every individual is not
  enough to predict system behavior
• Slight changes in rules or interactions can lead
  to dramatic changes in system behavior
• The traditional reductionist (i.e.,
  divide-and-conquer) does not work!

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Supermarket Shopper Behavior

• ClientFortune 500 consumer goods company
• ChallengeUnderstand behavior of shoppers moving
  through a supermarket
• How do they navigate?
• What do they purchase?
• Where to place products?
• Complexities
• Correlate cart tracking data with consumer
  behavior
• Predict behavior for novel supermarket
  configurations OutcomeIdentified key behavioral
  drivers tool development contracted in Q205.

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Predictive Analytics
Technique 2 Interactive Search
I know well what I am fleeing from, but not what
I am in search of. -Michel de Montaigne
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Drug Discovery

• ClientFortune 100 pharma company
• ChallengeIncrease the success rate/ quality of
  molecules in the early stages of drug development
• Complexities
• Vast search space
• Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified
• Huge expense for each failure
• OutcomeCreated tool which generates novel
  compound designs based on interactive chemist
  feedback

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Interactive Search applied to Open Source
information
bronze
biathlon
elections
brave
success
engineer
skiing
explosion
defend
uniforms
ceremony
gold
checkpoint
Army
What if we could easily monitor communication
volume AND content?
Marines
national
skating
truck
barricade
United States
save
bus
car
olympic
liberty
transit
pins
winter
bobsled
Torino
rings
build
Iraq
road
bridge
war
bomb
pride
guns
pedestrian
security
torch
destroy
helicopter
kill
goat
Baby Noor
Festival of Eid
English
pencil
lentil
storage
mosque
school
preparation
Sunni
Shia
learn
bike
pastry
prayer
Muslim
eggplant
cafe
safety
laugh
peace
food
religion
forgive
children
rice
lamb
burghal
buying
freedom
save
toys
train
doll
shortage
defend
friend
spices
fundamental
play
Xbox 360
US troops
safety
saffron
war
Al Qaeda
jihad
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Interactive Search applied to Open Source
information
bronze
biathlon
brave
success
engineer
skiing
explosion
defend
uniforms
ceremony
gold
checkpoint
Army
Marines
national
skating
truck
barricade
United States
save
bus
car
olympic
liberty
transit
pins
winter
bobsled
Torino
rings
build
Iraq
road
bridge
war
bomb
pedestrian
destroy
helicopter
kill
goat
Baby Noor
Festival of Eid
English
pencil
mosque
lentil
storage
school
preparation
Sunni
Shia
learn
bike
pastry
prayer
Muslim
cafe
eggplant
safety
laugh
peace
food
religion
forgive
children
rice
lamb
burghal
freedom
save
buying
toys
train
doll
defend
shortage
friend
spices
fundamental
play
Xbox 360
US troops
safety
saffron
war
Al Qaeda
jihad
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Come see us at our table!
My therapist told me the way to achieve true
inner peace is to finish what I start. So far
today, I have finished 2 bags of M and M's and a
chocolate cake. I feel better already. - Dave
Barry
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Online Shopping
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Online Shopping
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Online Shopping
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Online Shopping
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Online Shopping