Water Optimizer

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Potential Effects of Biofuels on Irrigation and
Water Policy Research and Education Implications
Ray Supalla, Department of Ag Economics and Suat
Irmak, Biological Systems Engineering University
of Nebraska - Lincoln
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MILLIONS OF ACRES IRRIGATED IN 2002
1.8
2.1
1.7
3.1
1.4
7.5
2003 Farm Ranch Irrigation SurveyCensus of
Agriculture
1.1
2.6
1.0
2.5
8.5
3.9
WATER USE IN STATES WITH LARGEST CONSUMPTION
1.2
4.9
1.5
Reallocations for future needs must come from
agriculture! Very limited potential for
increasing irrigation consumptive use.
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Water Management Challenges
Groundwater Mining A Widespread Problem Which We
Must Address in the 21st Century
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Demand Exceeds Supply in Parts of Nebraska
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The Water Policy Challenge for the Western U. S.
Getting by with Less Management Options in an
Era of Increasingly Scarce Water Supplies

• How serious is this problem?
• 62 Million Irrigated Acres
• 90 of consumptive use in West is for irrigation
• Reallocations to meet future needs must come
  from agriculture
• Agricultural economy must be sustained as
  reallocations occur
• Problem is exacerbated by biofuel demands.

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Biofuel Impact on Grain Prices
Crop Corn Soybeans Grain Sorghum Wheat
Historical (96-05) Current
3.35 6.25 3.25 4.50
2.40 5.50 2.30 3.50
Chicago futures price for corn December 2007
3.94 December 2008 3.79
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If current grain prices are sustained?

• The economic returns to irrigation will double
  from about 125 to 250 per acre.
• This will create strong incentives to
• Develop additional irrigated acreage.
• Apply more water and nitrogen to maximize yields,
  where ever more water is available.
• Increase output per unit of applied water,
  especially where water supplies are limited.

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Increased returns to irrigation present a major
threat to water policy objectives

• The economic cost of retiring acres in over
  appropriated basins at least doubles.
• The cost of reducing consumptive use from
  irrigation also doubles.
• Efforts to maximize yield will increase leaching
  of nitrates to groundwater.
• Final outcome will depend on political will,
  research and education.

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The Research Education Task Increase Yield
without Increasing Basin Losses
YIELD
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Research and education questions

• How can we achieve more yield without increasing
  consumptive use?
• What do we mean by consumptive water use? How
  does it differ from ET? Are we on the same page?
• How much crop reside can we remove without
  increasing surface soil evaporation?
• Are there hybrids that use less water and
  produce high yields?
• What is evaporation and ET from different
  surfaces?
• How reliable is the information on
  high-ethanol-yielding hybrids?
• Do we have resources/facilities to address these
  questions?
• What is the most effective way to transfer this
  information to clientele?

Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering
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Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering
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New low pressure system research
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ET versus Consumptive water use!
Hybrid Irrigation (in) Irrigated crop ET (in) Dryland crop ET (in) Consumptive water use (in) Irrigated yield (bu/ac) Dryland yield (bu/ac) WUE (bu/in) IWUE (bu/in)
1 9.5 16.6 10.8 5.8 217 124 5.6 9.8
2 9.5 17.8 11.2 6.6 211 108 5.8 10.9
3 9.5 18.1 12.6 5.5 247 125 6.7 12.8
4 9.5 19.3 10.3 9.0 252 142 5.7 11.6
5 9.5 16.1 10.2 5.9 228 145 5.1 8.7
6 9.5 18.2 10.5 7.7 233 150 4.6 8.8
7 9.5 18.8 12.2 6.6 198 126 3.8 7.5
Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering
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Thank you!
Questions?
Time flies!
I can foretell a lot about celestial bodies, but
can say a little about the movement of a small
drop of water
Galileo Galilei, 1564-1642
Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering